Colombia growth tracker signals Q2 acceleration above first-quarter pace

Colombia’s economy showed signs of acceleration in the rolling quarter ended in May 2026, according to the latest NowCast Bancolombia report published June 3 by Grupo Cibest, the quantitative research arm of Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB, BVC: BCOLOMBIA). The proprietary economic activity index registered a year-over-year expansion of 2.9% on a three-month moving average basis for the March–May 2026 period, up from 2.2% recorded in the comparable period a year earlier and an improvement of 30 basis points over the prior month’s reading, which was itself revised upward by 30 basis points from an initial estimate of 2.3%.

The report’s authors describe the result as marking a shift in the growth trend, with second-quarter 2026 conditions appearing more favorable than those observed in the first quarter. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, however, the index showed no change from the prior month, registering 0.0%. On a year-over-year basis using the original, non-seasonally adjusted series, growth came in at 2.2% for May 2026.

For the full second quarter of 2026, the NowCast model projects year-over-year GDP growth of 2.6%, based on the May 31 reading. That estimate is slightly below the market consensus tracked by Latin Focus Consensus Forecasts, which has held steady at 2.7%. The NowCast estimate for 2Q26 was revised up from 2.4% as of April 30.

The NowCast Bancolombia index is constructed by Grupo Cibest using transaction data from the channels and payment methods of the Bancolombia group, processed through quantitative and analytical tools to generate high-frequency estimates of productive activity in Colombia. The index is designed as a complement to official statistics published by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, DANE) and is not a substitute for official GDP figures.

“The data suggests that conditions in 2Q26 to date are more favorable than those observed in 1Q26.” — NowCast Bancolombia, June 3, 2026, Grupo Cibest

Sector Performance

At the sector level, the rolling quarter ended in May points to a broad consolidation of trends across Colombia’s productive sectors. Commerce (wholesales and retail) held growth near 3.3% year-over-year, continuing a trend that has been sustained through the first half of 2026. Public administration posted 4.7% year-over-year growth in May, maintaining steady expansion. Real estate services continued its stable trajectory at 2.0%, while financial services accelerated to 5.6% year-over-year in May, up from 2.8% in March.

Construction recorded 3.6% year-over-year growth in May after a period of deceleration that had brought the sector down from highs above 6% in mid-2025. Agriculture registered 3.5% year-over-year growth in May, also showing renewed momentum after a softer stretch earlier in the year. Manufacturing reached 2.4% in May, a modest acceleration from 0.9% in February. Entertainment posted the strongest reading in the heat map at 6.6% year-over-year in May, continuing a recovery that began in mid-2025. Mining remained in modest positive territory at 1.3% in May, though it has been volatile, dipping into negative readings as recently as February 2026 at -2.4%.

The information sector was the weakest performer, posting only 0.2% year-over-year growth in May after recording negative readings in the November 2025 through February 2026 period. Utilities registered 2.2% growth in May, and professional services came in at 1.9%.

The NowCast report was prepared by Arturo Yesid González Peña, Head of Quantitative and Analytics, and Sebastián Ospina Cuartas, Data Controller, within Grupo Cibest’s Economic, Industry and Market Research area. The index is available on Bloomberg under the ticker ALLX COBC<GO>. The report carries a standard disclaimer noting that its projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from estimates contained in the document. It does not constitute investment advice.

Above photo: Leatherworking machinery on display at Colombia’s Leather Expo in Bogotá (photo: Loren Moss)

Activity cools to 2.1% annual expansion.

Economic activity in Colombia expanded at an estimated annual rate of 2.1% during the first quarter of 2026. According to the latest NowCast report issued by the Grupo Cibest, unit of Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB, BVC: BCOLOMBIA), this outcome reflects a loss of momentum compared to the rolling quarter ended in February. That previous period recorded a growth of 2.2%, which was revised downward by 10 basis points from an initial estimate of 2.3%.

The 2.1% growth rate for the quarter indicates a slowdown relative to both the market consensus average of 2.7% and the internal growth forecast of 3.3% held by the bank. On a month-over-month basis, the seasonally adjusted series of the NowCast index posted a 1.3% contraction in March 2026. When compared to March 2025, economic activity grew by 2% year over year, representing a 50-basis-point decline from the 2.5% reading recorded the previous month.

“Overall, these results suggest that the economy is beginning to lose steam, amid multiple sources of uncertainty.” — NowCast Bancolombia Report

Analysis at the sector level reveals a broadly weaker growth profile, with deceleration appearing across most productive areas. Slower momentum was identified in trade, manufacturing, recreation, real estate, and financial services. Manufacturing expansion cooled to 1.0% in March 2026, while financial services recorded marginal growth of 0.6%. The real estate sector maintained a steady growth rate of 1.9%.

Construction and communications were the only sectors to record negative growth during the period. The construction sector saw a significant downturn, contracting by 2.3% in March 2026 after having posted 1.4% growth in February. The information and communications sector contracted by 0.4%, marking its fourth consecutive month in contractionary territory. Conversely, acceleration was noted in public administration, which grew by 5.1%, agriculture at 3.7%, and mining at 0.8%.

The NowCast family of indicators is prepared by Grupo Cibest through the processing and aggregation of transaction data from the bank’s various payment channels. Using advanced quantitative tools, the index provides high-frequency estimates of Colombian productive activity to complement official data from the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística. The report was authored by Arturo Yesid González Peña, Head of Quantitative and Analytics, and Sebastián Ospina Cuartas, Data Controller.

The report also incorporates data from the Bloomberg platform and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts to provide broader economic context. While the national economy remains in expansionary territory, the analysts suggest that the current results indicate the market is losing steam due to various sources of domestic uncertainty.