With just over a month to go before Colombia’s May 31 presidential election, a new Invamer poll suggests the race has narrowed to three viable contenders, as left-wing senator Iván Cepeda strengthens his lead and two right-wing rivals battle for a place in the runoff.

The survey, conducted for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio, shows Cepeda commanding 44.3% of voting intention, a significant jump from 37.1% in February. The Pacto Histórico candidate has not only consolidated support among core voters but expanded his appeal across all regions, with particularly strong gains among younger voters aged 20 to 30.

Trailing behind, but still within striking distance of a second-round berth, are Abelardo de la Espriella with 21.5% and Paloma Valencia with 19.8%. While De la Espriella has posted modest gains since February, Valencia has emerged as the fastest-rising candidate, nearly doubling her support from 10% in the previous poll.

The data underscores a central dynamic shaping the race: a fragmented right competing for a single runoff slot, even as the left coalesces behind a dominant frontrunner. According to the data, as long as the right remains divided, any division among the pro-Uribe camps will continue to benefit Cepeda. Unless there is a clear consolidation after May 31, the numbers suggest the second round will be a contest over who faces the hard-leftist and not whether he gets to the final run-off.

The collapse of Colombia’s political center has been equally striking. Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López has seen her support plunge from 11.7% to 3.6%, while former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo has dropped from 6.6% to just 2.5%. Both candidates have lost more than half of their previous backing and now poll well below the 4% threshold required for state reimbursement of campaign expenses.

López’s decline appears particularly acute in urban constituencies, where she previously drew strong support, including among progressive and LGBTQ voters, pointing to a broader erosion of her core base. Fajardo, meanwhile, continues to struggle to regain traction, reflecting persistent voter dissatisfaction with centrist alternatives.

Analysts are also seeing how centrist voters are shifting toward Valencia, whose ticket includes former DANE statistics chief Juan Daniel Oviedo as the vice-presidential option. Oviedo appears to be decisive in broadening Valencia’s appeal beyond the Centro Democrático base.

Despite Cepeda’s commanding first-round lead, runoff scenarios suggest a more competitive contest – particularly if Valencia secures the second spot. In a hypothetical second round between Cepeda and De la Espriella, the left-wing candidate would win with 54.6% against 42.6%. However, against Valencia, the margin narrows significantly to 51.2% versus 46.6%.

That tightening gap reflects Valencia’s growing ability to attract support beyond her base, including voters from the political center and segments of the undecided electorate. According to the poll, she outperforms De la Espriella in capturing second-choice preferences, positioning her as the more competitive challenger in a potential runoff.

When respondents were asked who they would support if their first-choice candidate failed to advance, Cepeda led with 26.7%, followed closely by Valencia at 25.7%, with De la Espriella trailing at 19.8%. López and Fajardo lagged further behind, reinforcing their diminished relevance in the race.

Cepeda’s dominance, however, is not without warning signs. While he continues to lead comfortably, his projected runoff margins have narrowed compared to earlier surveys, particularly against Valencia. The erosion suggests that while his base remains solid, opposition voters may be coalescing more effectively than before.

For now, the trajectory is clear. Cepeda has gained ground nationally despite a worsening security situation and poll conducted before the terrorist bomb on Saturday, April 25 by FARC dissidents along the Pan-American highway in which 20 persons were killed.

With less than a month until Colombians head to the polls, the race appears increasingly defined not by a crowded field, but by a three-way struggle – one frontrunner and two challengers vying for the chance to stop him.

Colombia’s presidential primaries are interparty, where broad coalitions decide on a candidate that the allied parties then agree to back.

This Sunday, March 8, 2026, Colombia will hold one of the most significant electoral events of the year’s political calendar. In addition to electing a new congress, voters will participate in the so-called Interparty Primaries, a mechanism through which political parties select their candidates for the presidential election scheduled for May 31.

According to the political analysis website Razón Pública, these consultations seek to “build broad coalitions composed of parties, movements, and independent candidacies.” In practice, they allow different political sectors to determine through open voting who will represent each coalition in the presidential race.

Political parties seek to boost their chances in the presidential race or strengthen their leverage in potential coalition negotiations.

In total, three separate primaries will take place, each with its own ballot. Citizens may participate in only one of them by requesting the corresponding ballot when voting for Congress.

The first is the “Solutions Primary: Healthcare, Security and Education,” made up of parties from the political center. In this contest, former Bogotá mayor Claudia López faces independent lawyer Leonardo Huertas. According to the latest Invamer poll, López is the clear frontrunner, with a projected 92.9% voting preference, compared with her only opponent.

The second consultation represents the political right and includes nine pre-candidates in the so-called “Grand Primary for Colombia.”

Among the contenders are former ministers of previous governments Juan Carlos Pinzón (Defense), Mauricio Cárdenas (Finance), and David Luna (Information Technologies); former Antioquia governor Aníbal Gaviria; former Bogotá mayor Enrique Peñalosa; journalist Vicky Dávila; and three senators representing their respective parties: Juan Manuel Galán (Nuevo Liberalismo), Juan Daniel Oviedo (Con Toda con Colombia), and Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático).

Polls consistently identify Paloma Valencia as the favorite to win the primary. The Invamer poll projects her with 41.6% of the vote, Atlas Intel 44.4%, and Guarumo-EcoAnalítica 40.6%, while the firm Gad3 also places her first but with a lower estimated vote share of 17%. Valencia has been campaigning nationwide accompanied by former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, the leading figure of the Centro Democrático, and previously won her party’s internal selection process through a member survey held on December 15.

The third primary corresponds to the coalition known as the “Front for Life,” made up of left-wing candidates, although without the official backing of current President Gustavo Petro, who under Colombian law is prohibited from participating in electoral politics or promoting candidates.

Candidates in this race include Héctor Elías Pineda, a former member of the M-19 guerrilla movement (the same group Petro once belonged to); Edison Lucio Torres of the Partido de los Trabajadores (Worker’s Party); and independent candidate Martha Viviana Bernal.

Former senator Roy Barreras; and embattled former mayor of Medellín Daniel Quintero Calle registered through the Movimiento de Autoridades Indígenas de Colombia. Polls by Guarumo-EcoAnalítica (47.6%) and Invamer (68.1%) place Daniel Quintero as the leading candidate of this Primary. However, the firm Atlas Intel did not measure this coalition, arguing that it did not surpass the statistical threshold required.

What comes next in the political landscape after the Primaries?

According to Razón Pública, “once the March 8 voting concludes, the political landscape will enter a phase of critical decisions. The results will determine alliances and realignments ahead of the presidential first round.”

Across the political spectrum, the winners of each consultation will attempt to consolidate support to compete against other candidates who registered directly without participating in the consultations. These include Abelardo de la Espriella, a conservative lawyer and businessman who registered through citizen signatures; Iván Cepeda, the official candidate of the Pacto Histórico coalition led by President Petro and currently leading voting-intention polls; and Sergio Fajardo, who registered with the party Dignidad y Compromiso.

Under Colombia’s electoral Law (1475 of 2011), political parties may still modify or withdraw candidates until March 20. After that date, the presidential campaign will move toward the first round scheduled for May 31. If no candidate secures an absolute majority of the vote (50% plus one), the two candidates receiving the highest number of votes will compete in a runoff election on June 21, where the candidate with a simple majority will be elected president.

Photos courtesy of the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil

Senator Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact coalition has emerged as the early front-runner in Colombia’s 2026 presidential race, according to a nationwide Invamer poll released Sunday by Caracol TV and Blu Radio. The survey – the first major measurement since the lifting of Colombia’s recent polling restrictions – places the left-wing candidate at 31.9% of voting intention, six months ahead of the first round.

The results position Cepeda well ahead of candidate Abelardo de la Espriella of Defensores de la Patria, who received 18.2%, and independent centrist Sergio Fajardo, who registered 8.5%. Miguel Uribe Londoño, running for the leadership of  President Álvaro Uribe Vélez’s Centro Democrático party, follows with 4.2%. Uribe Londoño is the father of Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, victim of an assassination attempt on June 7, and who died two months later at the Santa Fe Hospital in Bogotá.

The findings come amid broad public dissatisfaction with the country’s direction and with the administration of President Gustavo Petro, who leaves office on August 7, 2026. According to the poll, 56% of respondents disapprove of Petro’s administration, while 37% approve. Although disapproval has dipped slightly from previous months, nearly six in ten Colombians remain critical of the government. National sentiment is similarly pessimistic: 59.8% believe Colombia is “on the wrong track,” compared with 34.4% who feel otherwise.

Internal security stands out as the leading concern. Asked whether Petro’s “Total Peace” policy had made them feel safer, 66.2% claim it made them feel more insecure. Nearly 65% believe the initiative is moving in the “wrong direction”, and 73% say the government has lost territorial control to illegal armed groups. Only 20% expressed confidence in the government’s peace and security approach.

The Invamer survey, conducted between November 15 and 27 among 3,800 respondents in 148 municipalities, does not include public reaction to the latest scandal involving alleged infiltration of state institutions by FARC dissidents. The poll has a 1.81% margin of error and a 95% confidence level.

Cepeda’s lead reflects firm support among left-leaning voters and measurable gains among independents and left-leaning centrists. Though only 24% of those polled identified themselves as “left-wing”, the senator’s 31.9% support suggests he is drawing backing among younger voters. He also carries a relatively high rejection rate: 23.9% said they would “never” vote for him.

The survey challenges the perception that Cepeda lacks room to grow beyond the left, even as 50% expressed that they would prefer to vote for a candidate opposed to Petro. Analysts believe the Historic Pact’s decision to hold its internal consultation last month helped consolidate support within the coalition and gave Cepeda a strategic advantage.

Despite his lead, Cepeda could face voter rejection should Petro’s disapproval ratings continue to climb. The candidate’s current negative rating is among the highest of any public figure, and his pro-Petro agenda on security, economy, and U.S relations could push the center closer to the moderate right. Still, the poll indicates Cepeda would win a runoff against De la Espriella with a wide margin, but face a “technical tie” with the mathematician and former Governor of Antioquia.

De la Espriella, meanwhile, has quickly consolidated the anti-Petro vote, emerging as a “dark horse” at the extreme right of the spectrum. Once absent from early electoral projections, the lawyer now surpasses established Centro Democrático politicians – including senators María Fernanda Cabal, Paola Holguín, and Paloma Valencia.

Former defense minister under President Juan Manuel Santos and ex-Ambassador to Washinton, Juan Carlos Pinzón, is in seventh place (2,9%), but these early numbers are likely to increase, given that he maintains a close relationship with three ideological camps (Centro Democrático, La U, Cambio Radical) represented in Presidents Uribe and Juan Manuel Santos, and German Vargás Lleras.

 Even though the poll found that 63% of eligible voters know who De la Espriella is, there is room for continued growth for the five candidates who marked above 2% in the poll, among them, Vargas Lleras in fifth place (2.1%).

The centrist bloc, historically influential in Colombian politics, appears fragmented. Fajardo, once considered a reliable alternative to both left and right, no longer polls in double digits. While he maintains a lower rejection rate than most rivals and doubles the numbers of former Bogotá mayor Claudia López (4.1%), analysts say the proliferation of centrist candidates could dilute Fajardo’s base. Combined, these candidates would outpace De la Espriella’s support, but the numbers suggest this does not translate into a cohesive electoral force.

Foreign policy is also shaping voter priorities. A large majority – 78% – said maintaining strong relations with the United States is essential for the next administration. Respondents widely rejected Petro’s decision to use a megaphone in New York to urge U.S. soldiers not to follow orders from former President Donald Trump; 78% disapproved of the act, even though half of respondents hold an unfavorable view of Trump.

President Petro reacted to the poll on social media, framing the electoral landscape as a struggle between entrenched elites and what he described as a “powerful people” seeking to reclaim the state. Referring implicitly to Uribe and Fajardo, the president said Colombia must reject “mafioso elites” and work toward a “free and educated” society.

The Centro Democrático announced it will conduct an internal vote among more than 4,000 active party members to select two candidates for a March 2026 primary. The contenders are senators Cabal, Holguín, and Valencia, and Miguel Uribe Londoño.

With six months until the first round on May 31, 2026, the Invamer poll highlights a polarized electorate, deep concerns over security and corruption, and an early advantage for the ruling coalition’s candidate — with substantial uncertainty and new political alignments spearheaded by former presidents, especially Álvaro Uribe.