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Trade War Between Colombia And Ecuador Escalates, With 50% Tariffs Threatened

Tensions between Colombia’s Gustavo Petro & Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa began last year when Petro refused to recognize Noboa’s election as legitimate.

Colombia and Ecuador are engaged in a tariff dispute that could affect both countries. At the beginning of February, Ecuador imposed 30% tariffs on products imported from its northern neighbor, and then Colombia responded with reciprocal tariffs at the same rate. Ecuador has now escalated the dispute by raising the tariff to 50%. Here is a summary of what is happening.

The most recent move by Ecuador was on February 26. “After confirming the lack of implementation of concrete and effective border security measures by Colombia, Ecuador is obliged to adopt sovereign actions. Starting March 1, the security fee on imports originating from Colombia will be increased from 30% to 50%,” the Servicio Nacional de Aduana said in a press release as retaliation for the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by Colombia.

Before that, the Colombian government had officially imposed a reciprocal 30% tariff on imports of goods originating from Ecuador, as established in Decree 170 of 2026, signed on February 24 by President Gustavo Petro and his ministerial cabinet.

The decree states that the measure responds to the 30% tariff previously imposed by Ecuador on Colombian products has generated “an estimated 97% drop in exports to that country, equivalent to an annual reduction of approximately $1.803 billion USD.”

Colombia has suspended electricity delivery to Ecuador in retaliation.

The Colombian decision came as a direct response to the so-called “security fee” introduced by Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on February 1, which applied the same rate to goods originating from Colombia.

At the time, the Secretaría General de Comunicaciones de Ecuador, announced the measure through the social media platform X, stating that the objective was to “protect national security and strengthen customs controls and security in the border area.” According to President Noboa, the decision was based on “a lack of reciprocity and the need for stronger security measures,” adding that the tariff would remain in place “until there is a genuine joint commitment to combat drug trafficking and illegal mining along the shared border.”

These actions mark an escalation in trade tensions between the two countries, which have faced growing political and diplomatic challenges in recent months. Colombia had already suspended electricity exports to Ecuador following the initial tariffs, while Quito increased fees for transporting Colombian petroleum through its pipelines.

Products affected by tariffs include beans, rice, fats and oils, unsweetened cocoa powder, fresh bananas, ethyl alcohol and denatured spirits, as well as insecticides, fungicides, and disinfectants, among others. Although the tariff is initially paid by importers at the border, these costs are typically passed on to end consumers through price adjustments.

Despite historically close trade relations, it remains unclear whether both countries will reach a short-term agreement, or move toward formal dispute resolution mechanisms. On February 6, foreign ministers from both nations held a negotiation meeting in Quito, though no formal agreement was reached. Ecuador, at the time, conditioned further decisions on progress in security and energy cooperation.

Additionally, according to Bogotá-based El Tiempo daily newspaper, both governments have filed formal complaints with the Comunidad Andina de Naciones (CAN), which must determine whether the claims will be accepted. Analysts generally agree that a diplomatic solution remains the most viable path to resolving the current trade dispute.

The Central Market in Tulcán, Ecuador, near the Colombian border, one of the most affected areas by the new tariffs. (photo: Jadin Samit Vergara)

The Central Market in Tulcán, Ecuador, near the Colombian border, one of the most affected areas by the new tariffs. (photo: Jadin Samit Vergara)

Headline photo: Border between Tulcán, Ecuador, and Ipiales, Colombia, at the Rumichaca International Bridge. (Photo Jadin Samit Vergara)

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Avianca Group International Limited Reports $411 Million USD EBITDAR in Q3 2025

Avianca Group International Limited (AGIL) yesterday reported its consolidated financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company achieved $411 million USD in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization, and Rent (EBITDAR), resulting in a 27.2% margin for the period.

The third-quarter EBITDAR represents a 15.5% year-over-year increase from the $356 million USD reported in Q3 2024. Total operating revenues reached $1,509 million USD, marking a 12.8% increase compared to the $1,338 million USD recorded in the same period of the prior year. Total operating costs increased by 13.3% year-over-year, settling at $1,290 million USD. Net income for the quarter was $101 million USD, an improvement from $72 million USD in Q3 2024.

Operational and Capacity Metrics

Capacity, measured in Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs), reached 18,284 million, denoting a 6.8% increase compared to Q3 2024. This growth was attributed primarily to a 6.2% year-over-year increase in Stage Length. Passenger departures increased 1.0% year-over-year. The company transported 9.7 million passengers, consistent with the volume in the comparable period of 2024. The network encompassed 169 routes serving 83 destinations across 28 countries. Subsequent to the quarter’s close, Avianca introduced three new international routes, which included Belém (Brazil) and Monterrey (Mexico).

Cost performance for the quarter indicated a reduction in overall per-unit costs. Total Passenger CASK (Cost per Available Seat Kilometer) was 5.7 cents, a 1.9% decrease relative to Q3 2024. This decline was largely driven by Passenger Fuel CASK, which decreased 9.9% to 1.7 cents, resulting from lower fuel prices and increased fuel efficiency. Passenger CASK excluding fuel increased 2.1% year-over-year to 3.9 cents.

Balance Sheet and Credit Rating Actions

As of September 30, 2025, Avianca reported liquidity totaling $1,361 million USD, which represented 24.2% of last-twelve-month revenue. This total includes a cash balance of $1,161 million USD and $200 million USD available through an undrawn Revolving Credit Facility. The Net Debt to last-twelve-month EBITDAR ratio improved sequentially to 2.8x from 2.9x reported on June 30, 2025.

Rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch  upgraded Avianca’s credit ratings to B1 and B+ respectively. Both rating actions were assigned a stable outlook.

Business Unit Performance and Network Development

The cargo division, Avianca Cargo, recorded $157 million USD in revenue during Q3 2025, representing a 14.1% year-over-year increase. The operating freighter fleet currently consists of nine Airbus A330s, following the integration of two additional P2F aircraft during the quarter.

The loyalty program, LifeMiles, reported a 72% year-over-year increase in Q3 2025 Third-Party Cash EBITDA, reaching $77 million USD.

In network strategy, AGIL expanded its Business Class service to 54 additional routes from key operational centers including Bogotá (Colombia), Medellín (Colombia), San Salvador (El Salvador), Quito, and Guayaquil (Ecuador). The company’s passenger operating fleet totaled 161 aircraft as of September 2025, including 134 Airbus A320 family aircraft, 15 Boeing 787s, and 12 Airbus A330s.

Avianca is a member of Star Alliance  and is part of the Abra Group. The Abra Group also controls Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A.   and holds a strategic investment in Wamos Air .

Above photo: Avianca A330F cargo jet (photo courtesy Avianca)

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