With just over a month to go before Colombia’s May 31 presidential election, a new Invamer poll suggests the race has narrowed to three viable contenders, as left-wing senator Iván Cepeda strengthens his lead and two right-wing rivals battle for a place in the runoff.

The survey, conducted for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio, shows Cepeda commanding 44.3% of voting intention, a significant jump from 37.1% in February. The Pacto Histórico candidate has not only consolidated support among core voters but expanded his appeal across all regions, with particularly strong gains among younger voters aged 20 to 30.

Trailing behind, but still within striking distance of a second-round berth, are Abelardo de la Espriella with 21.5% and Paloma Valencia with 19.8%. While De la Espriella has posted modest gains since February, Valencia has emerged as the fastest-rising candidate, nearly doubling her support from 10% in the previous poll.

The data underscores a central dynamic shaping the race: a fragmented right competing for a single runoff slot, even as the left coalesces behind a dominant frontrunner. According to the data, as long as the right remains divided, any division among the pro-Uribe camps will continue to benefit Cepeda. Unless there is a clear consolidation after May 31, the numbers suggest the second round will be a contest over who faces the hard-leftist and not whether he gets to the final run-off.

The collapse of Colombia’s political center has been equally striking. Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López has seen her support plunge from 11.7% to 3.6%, while former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo has dropped from 6.6% to just 2.5%. Both candidates have lost more than half of their previous backing and now poll well below the 4% threshold required for state reimbursement of campaign expenses.

López’s decline appears particularly acute in urban constituencies, where she previously drew strong support, including among progressive and LGBTQ voters, pointing to a broader erosion of her core base. Fajardo, meanwhile, continues to struggle to regain traction, reflecting persistent voter dissatisfaction with centrist alternatives.

Analysts are also seeing how centrist voters are shifting toward Valencia, whose ticket includes former DANE statistics chief Juan Daniel Oviedo as the vice-presidential option. Oviedo appears to be decisive in broadening Valencia’s appeal beyond the Centro Democrático base.

Despite Cepeda’s commanding first-round lead, runoff scenarios suggest a more competitive contest – particularly if Valencia secures the second spot. In a hypothetical second round between Cepeda and De la Espriella, the left-wing candidate would win with 54.6% against 42.6%. However, against Valencia, the margin narrows significantly to 51.2% versus 46.6%.

That tightening gap reflects Valencia’s growing ability to attract support beyond her base, including voters from the political center and segments of the undecided electorate. According to the poll, she outperforms De la Espriella in capturing second-choice preferences, positioning her as the more competitive challenger in a potential runoff.

When respondents were asked who they would support if their first-choice candidate failed to advance, Cepeda led with 26.7%, followed closely by Valencia at 25.7%, with De la Espriella trailing at 19.8%. López and Fajardo lagged further behind, reinforcing their diminished relevance in the race.

Cepeda’s dominance, however, is not without warning signs. While he continues to lead comfortably, his projected runoff margins have narrowed compared to earlier surveys, particularly against Valencia. The erosion suggests that while his base remains solid, opposition voters may be coalescing more effectively than before.

For now, the trajectory is clear. Cepeda has gained ground nationally despite a worsening security situation and poll conducted before the terrorist bomb on Saturday, April 25 by FARC dissidents along the Pan-American highway in which 20 persons were killed.

With less than a month until Colombians head to the polls, the race appears increasingly defined not by a crowded field, but by a three-way struggle – one frontrunner and two challengers vying for the chance to stop him.

Colombians are expressing outrage and grief after a bombing attributed to dissident factions of the former FARC killed 20 people and left injured 46, marking the country’s deadliest attack in over a decade.

The blast on Saturday afternoon tore through a stretch of the Pan-American Highway near Cajibío, in the southwestern department of Cauca, leaving mangled vehicles, a massive crater, and scenes of devastation that authorities described as among the most brutal assaults on civilians in recent memory.

Departmental governor Octavio Guzmán said the explosion, which injured at least 36 people, including children, was the “most ruthless attack against the civilian population in decades,” adding that several vehicles were overturned by the force of the blast.

Military officials said attackers blocked traffic with a bus and another vehicle before detonating explosives as cars and buses were stranded along the highway, a vital artery linking Colombia’s southwest with the cities of Popayán and Cali.

The attack, attributed to a FARC dissident faction led by Iván Mordisco, came amid a surge of violence across southwestern Colombia, with authorities reporting at least 26 attacks over a two-day period in Cauca and neighbouring Valle del Cauca. Incidents included explosions, arson attacks on vehicles, and assaults on security forces in cities such as Cali, Palmira, and Jamundí.

But as the country mourns, President Gustavo Petro faced mounting criticism after posting images of himself celebrating his birthday, prompting accusations of insensitivity and a lack of leadership during a national crisis.

Late on Saturday evening, Petro shared a photograph on social media showing himself alongside three friends, all wearing Hawaiian-style flower garland necklaces, accompanied by a message marking his birthday on April 19. “Surrounded by love and bonds of affection,” Petro wrote. “We are an army of Quixotes doing the impossible and achieving the impossible.”

The post, which appeared hours after reports of the deadly attack emerged, sparked immediate backlash from political leaders and the public, many of whom questioned the president’s priorities at a moment of national mourning.

Senator Juan Manuel Galán criticized the timing of the message, writing on social media: “19 people murdered in Cajibío, Cauca, the country bleeding, the Pan-American highway turned into tragedy… but the priorities of Gustavo Petro were clear: the country in mourning and he showing us how he celebrated his birthday.”

Presidential hopeful Paloma Valencia travelled to Palmira to meet with victims’ families and express solidarity. “We are with the people who are afraid, who are mourning their loved ones, who need to feel safe again. Petro should be here,” she said.

The criticism underscores deep tensions surrounding Petro’s security strategy, particularly his “Total Peace” policy aimed at negotiating with illegal armed groups. Critics argue the approach has failed to contain violence in regions such as Cauca, where armed groups linked to narcotics trafficking and illegal mining continue to operate with increasing intensity.

Saturday’s bombing, one of the most lethal attacks since the 2016 peace accord with the FARC, has renewed fears about Colombia’s security trajectory and the resilience of dissident factions that refused to demobilise.

Images from the scene showed debris scattered across the highway, shattered vehicles, and a large crater where the explosion occurred. Authorities confirmed that 15 women and five men were among the dead, while several of the injured remained in critical condition.

For residents of the region, the attack has deepened a sense of vulnerability and abandonment.

“Cauca cannot continue to face this barbarity alone,” Governor Guzmán said, calling for greater national support and a stronger security response.

As Colombia approaches a general election on May 31, the attack also reveals the extent to which  the state remains unable to protect civilians, let alone presidential candidates opposed to the failed security policies of the country’s first leftist administration. “Petro: You are simply a disgrace. Show some empathy. Show some respect,” noted Paloma Valencia from Palmira.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet Venezuela’s interim leader Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas on Friday to address security challenges along the shared border, marking their first official encounter since Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S special forces on January 3, 2026.

The meeting, to be held at the Miraflores presidential palace, is expected to center on coordination between the two countries to tackle armed groups, drug trafficking and other cross-border threats that have long destabilized frontier regions.

Colombia’s presidency said the talks aim to “strengthen bilateral cooperation, territorial control and coordination on security matters,” following the cancellation of a previous meeting scheduled for March 13 at the border due to security concerns cited by Caracas.

Friday’s talks come after Rodríguez assumed power earlier this year following the capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro during Operation Absolute Resolve.

Petro is expected to travel to Caracas after holding meetings earlier in Bogotá. The leaders will first hold a private discussion to outline joint actions addressing border instability, followed by a broader metting between their respective delegations aimed at formalizing institutional commitments.

Officials from both countries are also expected to sign the final act of the III Commission on Neighborhood and Integration, with foreign ministers participating, before delivering statements to the media.

The Colombia–Venezuela border stretches more than 2,200 kilometers (1,367 miles) from the Caribbean coast to the Amazon basin and has long been a hotspot for illegal activity, including the presence of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla, as well as drug trafficking and smuggling networks.

Petro said earlier this week that the talks would place particular emphasis on the Catatumbo region, one of the most volatile areas along the frontier, where violence linked to armed groups and illicit economies has intensified.

“If we go, Catatumbo is a key issue to discuss with President Delcy,” Petro said during a cabinet meeting on April 21, adding that his delegation would include military and police officials to coordinate security strategies.

He said the goal is to develop a joint security plan, improve coordination between the two countries’ armed forces and police, and deepen intelligence-sharing, warning that a lack of cooperation could lead to operations that harm civilian populations.

The meeting also comes against the backdrop of a rebound in bilateral trade between the two countries following years of strained relations.

Trade flows have increased significantly in recent years, rising from around US$200 million three years ago to more than $1 billion, representing an increase of roughly 600%, according to official figures.

Colombia recorded a trade surplus of US$1 billion with Venezuela in 2025, underscoring the economic incentives for both governments to maintain stable ties despite ongoing political uncertainties.

Petro first announced the trip last week during an interview in Spain, referencing the earlier failed meeting and signaling his willingness to travel to Caracas to advance talks.

The visit marks a key test of Colombia’s role in engaging with Venezuela’s transitional leadership, as both countries seek to stabilize their shared border while cautiously rebuilding diplomatic and economic relations in the post-Maduro era.

Bogotá’s mayor has called for a major expansion of the city’s police force following a deadly knife attack on a television production set and a separate killing at a public transport station, as authorities warn of shifting patterns of urban crime in Colombia’s capital.

Carlos Fernando Galán said the city requires at least 8,000 additional police officers to effectively confront rising insecurity, after convening an extraordinary security council on Monday with senior officials from law enforcement, the military and prosecutors.

The move follows a shocking outbreak of violence on April 18 during the filming of the television series Sin senos sí hay paraíso in the central Santa Fe locality — an incident that left three people dead and several others injured.

“This is an extremely serious and senseless act of violence that hurts all of Bogotá,” Galán said, expressing solidarity with the victims’ families and the country’s audiovisual sector. “To respond effectively, we must strengthen the police, improve investigations, expand technological capabilities and increase personnel.”

The attack unfolded at approximately 3:30 p.m. in the Los Laches neighborhood, near the eastern edge of Parque Nacional, where a production crew had been filming in a public street close to the Instituto Roosevelt.

According to preliminary findings, a man not affiliated with the production approached the set and, without any prior interaction, attacked a crew member with a sharp weapon.

The sudden assault triggered panic and a rapid escalation of violence. Witnesses said several people at the scene intervened in an attempt to stop the attacker, leading to a chaotic street fight in which multiple individuals were stabbed.

In the ensuing struggle, the assailant managed to inflict severe injuries on several people before being subdued. Three individuals — including the attacker and two members of the production team — were transported to Hospital La Samaritana, where they later died from their wounds.

A fourth person injured in the confrontation was taken to Hospital Universitario San Ignacio. Authorities have not released further details regarding that individual’s condition.

The victims from the audiovisual team were identified as Henry Alberto Benavides Cárdenas, 45, and Nicolás Francisco Perdomo Corrales, 18.

Officials have stressed that the attack does not appear to be linked to robbery or organized crime. Instead, investigators are examining the background of the alleged assailant, who had previously been reported for threats and is believed to have a history of mental health issues — factors now under review by judicial and medical authorities.

The case has rattled Colombia’s cultural sector, which have grown steadily in recent years as Bogotá has positioned itself as a regional hub for film and television production. For many in the sector, the attack represents a deeply unsettling breach of safety for the industry.

Monday’s security meeting also addressed a separate killing that occurred in the city’s public transport system. A 19-year-old man, identified as Freddy Santiago Guzmán, died after being attacked during a robbery at the Minuto de Dios TransMilenio station.

Galán said the two incidents, while distinct, highlight the need for a more robust and coordinated security strategy across the capital. He called on the national government to provide greater support in terms of funding, personnel and institutional backing.

“We will not step back in the fight against crime,” he said. “But Bogotá cannot face this challenge alone.”

Security Secretary César Restrepo warned of what he described as a structural weakness in controlling the circulation of weapons, particularly knives and other bladed instruments.

“More than 10,000 bladed weapons have been seized so far this year,” Restrepo said, adding that the continued flow of such weapons into the city remains a critical concern for authorities.

Officials also pointed to evolving criminal dynamics that are complicating law enforcement efforts. Galán described the emergence of more fluid and decentralized forms of criminal activity, in which individuals come together temporarily to commit specific acts before dispersing.

“We are seeing a kind of ‘freelance’ crime,” he said. “This creates new challenges for intelligence work and policing.”

The extraordinary security council brought together representatives from the police, the army’s 13th Brigade of the Colombian Army and the Fiscalía General de la Nación, as authorities seek to strengthen coordination in response to recent violence.

Police commander Giovanni Cristancho Zambrano said officers had recovered eight stolen vehicles in the past week and urged citizens to report suspicious behaviour, particularly involving occupants of private vehicles, to support preventive action.

The rash of incidents during one weekend in the capital have sharpened concerns over public safety, especially in central districts where commercial, residential and cultural life converge in densely populated areas.

For the city’s growing audiovisual sector, the killings have raised urgent questions about security protocols for productions operating in open urban environments. Messages of mourning circulated widely among industry professionals, reflecting both grief and frustration over the circumstances surrounding the attack.

While city authorities have pledged to reinforce measures across key areas, Galán’s call for thousands more officers reveals the scale of Bogotá’s security needs as it grapples with entrenched crime from micro-trafficking groups and rapidly evolving new forms of urban violence.

Investigations into both incidents remain ongoing, with authorities working to establish the full sequence of events and any underlying factors that may have contributed to the attacks.