Escalating drought risk is potential bad news for rural communities, power consumers.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have confirmed that ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, technical indicators suggest a rapid transition, with a 61% probability of El Niño emerging between May and July 2026. For international investors and executives operating in Colombia, this shift indicates a looming period of increased operational costs, specifically within the energy and agricultural sectors.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to move toward the west coast of South America. Conversely, La Niña is characterized by stronger trade winds and cooler ocean temperatures. These fluctuations disrupt global atmospheric circulation, altering rainfall and temperature patterns across the planet.

In Colombia, the effects of these phenomena are distinct and significant. El Niño typically results in a sharp decrease in precipitation and a rise in average temperatures. Because Colombia relies on hydroelectricity for more than 60% of its total power generation, extended dry periods lead to lower reservoir levels. This forces the grid to rely on more expensive thermal generation fueled by natural gas and coal, which historically drives up spot market electricity prices for industrial and residential consumers.

“There is a 25% probability that the index reaches or exceeds +2.0°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The current technical diagnostic from NOAA shows that while the sea surface temperature index in the Niño-3.4 region was recently -0.2°C, the easternmost indices have already moved into positive territory. Furthermore, the equatorial subsurface temperature index has increased for five consecutive months. This accumulation of ocean heat is a primary driver behind the high probability of El Niño persistence through the end of 2026. Some models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), suggest a 25% chance of a “strong” or “very strong” event, where temperatures exceed the 2.0°C anomaly threshold.

The Ministerio de Minas y Energía and the Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas (CREG) are monitoring these developments closely. A strong El Niño would place additional stress on a natural gas system already facing structural supply constraints. Reduced hydroelectric output coupled with a potential deficit in gas supply could lead to significant energy price volatility. In past events, such as the 2015-2016 cycle, these conditions resulted in substantial financial pressure on the national utility system and necessitated emergency conservation measures.

Agricultural productivity is equally at risk. The Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) has identified the Caribbean and Andean regions—including departments such as La Guajira, Magdalena, and Antioquia—as highly vulnerable. During El Niño, these areas face increased risks of forest fires, water scarcity, and crop failure. For agribusinesses and exporters, this translates to disrupted planting cycles and higher production costs for staples like corn, potatoes, and vegetables, which can fuel domestic food inflation.

Conversely, when La Niña is in effect, Colombia faces the opposite extreme. The cooling of the Pacific leads to excessive rainfall, which can cause devastating landslides and flooding in mountainous terrain. While La Niña can replenish reservoirs, it often damages infrastructure and logistics networks, complicating the transport of goods to port. The current transition out of a La Niña phase provides a brief window of ENSO-neutral stability, which the CPC estimates has an 80% chance of lasting through June 2026.

For the international business community, the significance of these weather cycles extends to macro-economic stability. Persistent dry weather can impact GDP growth by raising the cost of basic services and reducing agricultural output. Strategic planning for 2026 and 2027 must account for these climatic variables. Meteorologists at Colorado State University note that El Niño also tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic, which may provide some relief for coastal logistics, but the primary threat remains the inland hydrological deficit.

As the Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible activates preventive mechanisms, companies are encouraged to review their energy procurement strategies and water management protocols. The next comprehensive diagnostic update from NOAA is scheduled for May 14, 2026, which will provide further clarity on the intensity of the projected warming trend. Understanding the mechanics of the ENSO cycle is no longer a matter of environmental interest but a necessity for risk mitigation in the Colombian market.

Satellite sea surface temperature departure in the Pacific Ocean for the month of October 2015, where darker orange-red colors are above normal temperatures and are indicative of El Niño. (Image credit: NOAA)

Headline photo: the Pacific Ocean from Guachalito Beach, Chocó, Colombia (photo © Loren Moss)

In the gilded stillness of one of Bogotá’s most striking colonial spaces, a new exhibition is quietly unsettling centuries-old certainties. Entonces llamó a un arcángel, the latest show by Colombian artist David Felipe Escobar, opens this week at the Museo Santa Clara, inviting visitors into a dialogue between baroque religious iconography and contemporary queer identities.

The exhibition, which opens on April 9 and runs until June 28, unfolds within the former church of the Real Convento de Santa Clara, a desacralised 17th-century site renowned for its lavish altar pieces and paintings of angels and archangels. Rather than treating these works as static relics, Escobar reactivates them—drawing them into conversation with bodies and identities historically excluded from the narratives they once upheld.

Taking its title from a verse by Saint John of the Cross, the exhibition imagines a meeting point between celestial beings and “queer, disobedient bodies” that exist beyond traditional gender norms. The result is not a confrontation with religious imagery, but a reframing of it—one that suggests ambiguity and fluidity were always present within baroque visual culture.

Indeed, Escobar’s premise rests on a subtle but powerful observation: that angels, often depicted as androgynous figures suspended between heaven and earth, already occupy a space of indeterminacy. By foregrounding this ambiguity, the exhibition reveals latent connections between colonial representations and contemporary non-binary identities, without imposing anachronistic readings onto the past.

The show is organised into two thematic sections. The first, centred on fluid identities in dislocated spaces, physically reshapes the museum environment. Selected paintings of archangels are removed from their traditional placements, disrupting long-standing visual hierarchies within the former temple. This curatorial gesture invites a more intimate engagement with the works, while questioning notions of permanence—both in museography and in gender constructs.

The second section, Una nueva Iglesia, shifts from disruption to speculation. Here, Escobar assembles apocryphal figures alongside materials such as chains and silks, constructing a symbolic space where alternative forms of belief can coexist. It is an imagined sacred realm—one that embraces multiplicity and offers refuge to identities historically marginalised by institutional religion.

Together, these interventions transform the Museo Santa Clara into a site of active reinterpretation. The building itself, once a place of rigid spiritual authority, becomes a stage for reconsidering how the sacred has been represented, contested and lived. In this sense, the exhibition does not position itself in opposition to religion, but rather proposes a space of encounter—where past and present converge to open new possibilities for understanding spirituality.

Born in Bogotá in 1992, Escobar’s practice spans visual art and writing, often exploring the intersections of violence, desire and the divine. A graduate of Parsons School of Design and Hunter College, he has participated in international residencies across Latin America. His literary work includes the novel Soap Bubble (2024) and the poetry collection 7 Iridescent Prayers (2026), further extending his exploration of spiritual and corporeal themes.

As Bogotá’s cultural calendar continues to foreground conversations around memory, identity and inclusion, Entonces llamó a un arcángel stands out for its quiet radicalism—suggesting that even within the most traditional of spaces, new meanings can still emerge.

The exhibition runs from April 9 to June 28, 2026, Tuesday to Sunday, 9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., with a programme of guided tours, workshops and public discussions designed to deepen reflection on the relationships between body, spirituality and diversity. Admission is free.

Activity cools to 2.1% annual expansion.

Economic activity in Colombia expanded at an estimated annual rate of 2.1% during the first quarter of 2026. According to the latest NowCast report issued by the Grupo Cibest, unit of Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB, BVC: BCOLOMBIA), this outcome reflects a loss of momentum compared to the rolling quarter ended in February. That previous period recorded a growth of 2.2%, which was revised downward by 10 basis points from an initial estimate of 2.3%.

The 2.1% growth rate for the quarter indicates a slowdown relative to both the market consensus average of 2.7% and the internal growth forecast of 3.3% held by the bank. On a month-over-month basis, the seasonally adjusted series of the NowCast index posted a 1.3% contraction in March 2026. When compared to March 2025, economic activity grew by 2% year over year, representing a 50-basis-point decline from the 2.5% reading recorded the previous month.

“Overall, these results suggest that the economy is beginning to lose steam, amid multiple sources of uncertainty.” — NowCast Bancolombia Report

Analysis at the sector level reveals a broadly weaker growth profile, with deceleration appearing across most productive areas. Slower momentum was identified in trade, manufacturing, recreation, real estate, and financial services. Manufacturing expansion cooled to 1.0% in March 2026, while financial services recorded marginal growth of 0.6%. The real estate sector maintained a steady growth rate of 1.9%.

Construction and communications were the only sectors to record negative growth during the period. The construction sector saw a significant downturn, contracting by 2.3% in March 2026 after having posted 1.4% growth in February. The information and communications sector contracted by 0.4%, marking its fourth consecutive month in contractionary territory. Conversely, acceleration was noted in public administration, which grew by 5.1%, agriculture at 3.7%, and mining at 0.8%.

The NowCast family of indicators is prepared by Grupo Cibest through the processing and aggregation of transaction data from the bank’s various payment channels. Using advanced quantitative tools, the index provides high-frequency estimates of Colombian productive activity to complement official data from the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística. The report was authored by Arturo Yesid González Peña, Head of Quantitative and Analytics, and Sebastián Ospina Cuartas, Data Controller.

The report also incorporates data from the Bloomberg platform and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts to provide broader economic context. While the national economy remains in expansionary territory, the analysts suggest that the current results indicate the market is losing steam due to various sources of domestic uncertainty.