Far-right independent candidate Abelardo De la Espriella, widely known by the nickname “El Tigre” (The Tiger), has taken the lead in Colombia’s presidential race five months ahead of the election, according to a new poll by AtlasIntel published by Semana magazine.

The survey places De la Espriella, founder of the pro-democracy movement Defensores de la Patria, at 28% of voting intentions, narrowly ahead of left-wing senator Iván Cepeda at 26.5%. Former Antioquia governor Sergio Fajardo ranks third with 9.4%, once again failing to surpass the 10% benchmark that has long eluded his centrist candidacies.

A corporate lawyer by training, De la Espriella rose to prominence as a high-profile legal advocate for conservative causes and a vocal critic of President Gustavo Petro’s reform agenda. His political ascent has been driven by hardline law-and-order rhetoric, a confrontational style and an aggressive use of social media, allowing him to position himself as an outsider channeling anti-establishment sentiment and opposition to the left.

In a hypothetical second-round runoff, De la Espriella would defeat hard-leftist Cepeda by 9.3 percentage points, the poll found, consolidating his status as the best-positioned opposition figure at this early stage of the race.

AtlasIntel also projected a runoff between De la Espriella and Fajardo. In that scenario, De la Espriella would secure 37.9% of the vote, compared with 23.2% for Fajardo — a margin of 14.7 points.

Fajardo, a mathematician and former governor of Antioquia from 2012 to 2016, has struggled to expand his electoral base beyond a narrow segment of moderate voters. His current polling echoes his performance in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, when he placed fourth with just over 800,000 votes, equivalent to 4.2% of the total, despite entering that race as a well-known national figure.

Further down the field, Juan Carlos Pinzón and Paloma Valencia each registered 5.1% support, followed by Claudia López (2.6%), Enrique Peñalosa (2.3%), Juan Daniel Oviedo (1.8%) and Aníbal Gaviria (1.3%). Several other candidates polled below 1%.

The survey found that 7.2% of respondents would vote blank, 5.7% remain undecided, and 1.1% said they would not vote.

Valencia, a senator from the right-wing Centro Democrático party, could nonetheless emerge as a pivotal figure in the race. Former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, Colombia’s most influential conservative leader, has named Valencia as the party’s official presidential candidate, formally placing the weight of his political machine behind her campaign.

Uribe, who governed Colombia from 2002 to 2010, retains significant influence, particularly in his home region of Antioquia and in the country’s second-largest city, Medellín, long considered a stronghold of uribismo. Analysts say Valencia’s numbers could rise sharply as party structures mobilise and undecided conservative voters coalesce around an officially endorsed candidate.

In other simulated second-round matchups, Valencia would narrowly defeat Cepeda by 2.4 points, while Cepeda would beat former defence minister Pinzón by 4.5 points, according to the poll.

AtlasIntel also measured voter intentions ahead of Colombia’s interparty primaries scheduled for March 8, to be held alongside congressional elections. About 18.7% of respondents said they plan to participate in the “Gran Consulta por Colombia,” while 29.8% expressed interest in voting in the leftist “Pacto Amplio”. Former Colombian Ambassador to the United Kingdom and insider of the Petro administration, Roy Barreras, is seen as a leading contender to the clinch the consultation.

Within the Gran Consulta, Valencia leads with 19.1% among likely participants, followed by Pinzón (13.1%), Aníbal Gaviria (11.1%), Juan Daniel Oviedo (10.6%) and former Semana director  Vicky Dávila (7%).

The poll results reinforce a broader pattern of fragmentation across the centre and right, even as opposition voters increasingly focus on preventing a left-wing victory. With five months to go before the May 31 election, an emerging landscape of “all against Cepeda” has appeared on the horizon, in which disparate conservative and centrist forces could eventually rally behind a single contender in a runoff scenario on June 19, 2026.

In this context, De la Espriella — himself a close ideological ally of Uribe — could seek to consolidate all right-wing factions by selecting Valencia as a potential vice-presidential running mate,  move that would unite his strong support on the Colombian coast, with the  strength of Centro Democrático and Uribe’s loyal political base in conservative departments.

According to AtlasIntel’s CEO Andrei Roman, the contest is being shaped by persistent ideological polarisation, internal divisions within the opposition, and the growing dominance of social media.

“The race is structured around the continuity of Petro-style progressivism versus a broad anti-Petro front,” Roman said. “At the same time, digital presence has become decisive, allowing outsider figures to gain traction quickly and redefine political mobilisation.”

Colombian authorities have rescued 17 minors belonging to Lev Tahor, an ultra-Orthodox Jewish sect widely accused across several countries of child abuse, forced marriage, kidnapping and extreme coercive control. The operation — carried out by Migración Colombia in coordination with the Army’s Gaula Militar — was triggered by international alerts and concerns that the group may have been attempting to establish a new enclave inside Colombia.

Officials intervened in a hotel in the northern municipality of Yarumal after receiving intelligence reports about the presence of foreign minors linked to Lev Tahor. The hotel operation allowed officers to verify the identity and migration status of 26 people, including 17 children from the United States, Guatemala, Canada and other countries. Five of the minors had active Interpol “yellow notices,” issued when a child is reported missing or potentially at risk of crimes such as trafficking or kidnapping.

Authorities said that seven families associated with the sect had arrived in Colombia on October 22 and 23 on flights from New York City. Sister agencies abroad had previously warned Colombian counterparts about possible movements of Lev Tahor members due to ongoing investigations in other jurisdictions. Some members of the group’s leadership have prior convictions in the United States for kidnapping and the sexual exploitation of minors. There are also long-standing allegations from Guatemala of enforced pregnancies, mistreatment of minors and rape inside the community.

According to Colombian investigators, one working hypothesis is that the families may have been seeking to establish a new settlement in rural Colombia. The group has a history of sudden, secretive migrations to avoid scrutiny from foreign governments. Lev Tahor communities, estimated at around 50 families worldwide, have lived in the United States, Canada, Guatemala and Mexico, often leaving abruptly when law-enforcement pressure escalates.

Authorities emphasized that the primary goal of the operation was to protect the children and clarify their situation. The minors were transported to Migración Colombia’s Service Center in Medellín, where they spent the night under continuous supervision. Officials from the Colombian Family Welfare Institute (ICBF), child-protection attorneys and multidisciplinary teams of psychologists, social workers and medical professionals were deployed to guarantee a comprehensive assessment of the children’s well-being.

“All of our actions were guided by an absolute commitment to safeguard the rights of these boys, girls and adolescents,” said Gloria Esperanza Arriero, Director General of Migración Colombia. “This was a preventative and coordinated intervention. Our priority is to determine whether these minors were victims of abuse, coercion, or human trafficking under the guise of religious activity.”

Local and international investigators are now examining evidence to determine whether any of the minors were taken from their home countries illegally. Some preliminary findings suggest that at least a few of the children may have been transported across borders without full parental consent or in violation of court orders, raising the possibility of a trafficking scheme.

The Lev Tahor sect – founded in the 1980s – is known for its rigid, isolationist doctrine and its strict dress codes for women, who are required to wear black, head-to-toe garments. Members live in tightly controlled communities overseen by male leaders and bound by strict obedience norms. Over the past decade, authorities in Canada, the United States, Guatemala and Mexico have repeatedly intervened amid accusations of forced underage marriages, psychological abuse and extreme discipline practices.

In December 2024, Guatemalan authorities rescued 160 minors from a Lev Tahor-occupied farm after receiving reports of forced pregnancies and sexual violence. A year earlier, Mexican police dismantled a compound near the Guatemalan border, removing women and children and arresting at least one leader. And in 2021, two senior members of the group were convicted in New York for kidnapping children and attempting to force a 14-year-old girl back into an illegal sexual relationship with an adult man.

Colombian authorities say they are now collaborating with Interpol, foreign embassies, child-protection agencies, the Attorney General’s Office and the Gaula Militar to fully determine the legal status of the rescued minors, ensure they are not returned to dangerous environments and rule out any signs of human trafficking.

“Protection comes first,” Migración Colombia said in a statement. “We will use every institutional mechanism available to guarantee the safety of these children.”