International observers certify Colombia’s first-round vote as transparent and credible

Two major international electoral observation missions have rejected claims of fraud in Colombia’s May 31 presidential first round, as outgoing President Gustavo Petro continued to press unsubstantiated allegations of irregularities in the days following the vote. The country heads to a June 21 runoff between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Iván Cepeda.

The European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) issued a preliminary statement Tuesday, June 2, describing the vote count as having been carried out in a “transparent, orderly and fluid” manner. Esteban González Pons, Vice President of the European Parliament and chief observer of the EU mission, told reporters in Bogotá that none of the 12 candidates who competed in the first round had brought claims of irregularities to his mission.

“We can discard any manipulation of data in the quick count and in the final count,” González Pons said. The mission selected a random sample of tally sheets from around the country and compared them to physical ballots cast, finding no inconsistencies.

“We can discard any manipulation of data in the quick count and in the final count.” — Esteban González Pons, Chief Observer, EU Election Observation Mission to Colombia

The EU EOM deployed 143 observers from 24 EU member states plus Norway, Switzerland, and Canada, covering 591 voting tables. The mission will also observe the June 21 runoff and issue a final report two months after the process concludes.

The Organization of American States (OAS) mission, headed by former Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández, similarly described the May 31 election day as “civic, calm and participatory,” with high citizen turnout compared to previous electoral cycles. The OAS mission comprised 96 observers and specialists from 24 countries, covering 412 polling stations and 1,340 voting tables across 26 departments, the Capital District, and five cities abroad.

Official results from the National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) showed de la Espriella receiving 43.74% of the vote, a margin of more than 673,000 votes over Cepeda, who received 40.90%. More than 23 million voters participated. By Monday night, the Registry said it had completed its review of 99.98% of voting tables and found a variation of only 0.06% from the quick count issued on election night.

Presento las bases comprobadas del posible fraude. Que puedo entregar a autoridad competente.

Dije que no reconocí los datos del preconteo del software de los hermanos Bautista es porque tengo datos.

Mi compromiso con mi pueblo y el amor a mi país por el que he luchado toda mi…

— Gustavo Petro (@petrogustavo) June 2, 2026

Petro, who is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, alleged on Sunday that 800,000 voters had been illegally added to voter rolls. He doubled down Tuesday in a post on X, claiming without evidence that 885,000 voters had been registered after a March 31 deadline, and pointing to alleged irregularities in the software used for vote counting and tabulation. The president said he could present his evidence to the relevant authorities.

Iván Cepeda (from Twitter)

Cepeda, who represents Petro’s Pacto Histórico, initially declined to acknowledge the quick count results on Sunday, saying he would wait for the official tally overseen by judges and notaries. By Monday, however, he softened his position, stating that monitors deployed by his party had not found “irregularities of a sufficient dimension to speak of fraud.” Cepeda also challenged de la Espriella to a debate ahead of the runoff.

Under Colombian law, election results are certified by judges, not the executive branch, typically within two weeks of the vote. González Pons noted that Colombia “has very strong democratic institutions, rooted in the people,” adding that the country “will find in democracy its principal ally, because of all the things that fail Colombia, democracy is one that has never failed it.”

Political analysts and observers have cautioned that Petro’s fraud allegations, made without supporting evidence, risk inflaming political tensions and contributing to a polarized climate in the lead-up to the June 21 runoff.

Fitch: June 21 Runoff Will Shape Colombia’s Fiscal Path

Colombia’s June 21 presidential runoff will have a significant bearing on the country’s economic policies and prospects, Fitch Ratings said in a commentary published this week.

In the first round of voting on May 31, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella — running under the Defensores de la Patria movement — received 43.7% of votes, defeating leftist senator Iván Cepeda of the governing Pacto Histórico, who received 40.9%. Neither candidate reached the absolute majority required to win outright, sending the election to a runoff.

De la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected first-round performance prompted a positive reaction in financial markets, reflecting expectations that he may be better positioned to address Colombia’s macroeconomic challenges that have intensified under outgoing President Gustavo Petro.

The next president will face the challenge of addressing Colombia’s wide fiscal imbalance. The central government deficit reached 6.4% of GDP in 2025, or 7.8% when net of a temporary reduction in interest costs from liability management operations. Fitch estimates that debt stabilization will require a fiscal adjustment equivalent to 4% of GDP. Higher global oil prices are expected to boost revenues via taxes and dividends in 2027, but Fitch cautioned that this support may not last.

“De la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected first-round performance prompted a positive reaction in financial markets, reflecting expectations that he may be better positioned to address Colombia’s macroeconomic challenges.” — Fitch Ratings

De la Espriella has pledged fiscal consolidation through a 40% reduction in the size of the state, while Cepeda has proposed restraining public-sector salaries and benefits. Budget rigidities and spending pressures tied to pensions, healthcare, and subnational transfers will make either adjustment difficult. Both candidates have also proposed higher spending — on defense and social welfare respectively. Capital spending could be trimmed as an adjustment variable, but only to a limited extent, with 2025 outlays of 2.7% of GDP.

The interest bill will be another source of pressure amid a higher local yield curve. Recent liability management operations have replaced lower-coupon bonds with higher-coupon ones, providing an up-front financial benefit while increasing future interest costs.

Given these spending constraints, durable fiscal consolidation is likely to require revenue-side measures. Colombia has a history of tax reforms, but new legislation is far from assured. De la Espriella has pledged to cut taxes, and while Cepeda supports revenue-raising measures, he could face obstacles in advancing reforms through Congress — as Petro’s administration found.

Uncertainties about Colombia’s trend growth persist. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.5% in 2019–2025, below the ‘BB’ median and below its own prior average of 3.5%–4%, supported by government transfers, a strong labor market, and minimum wage increases that kept private consumption buoyant at +4.2%. In contrast, investment contracted by an average of 1.6% annually, falling to 16% of GDP from 21%, affected in part by business concerns about the Petro administration’s more interventionist policy stance.

De la Espriella has pledged to boost growth through promotion of hydrocarbon development — including fracking — alongside tax cuts and steps to reduce administrative burdens on businesses. Cepeda has pledged continuity with Petro’s state-led development model, without concrete proposals to revive private investment.

Both agendas face implementation challenges. The next legislature will remain fragmented, requiring negotiation to pass any major legislation. As a political newcomer, de la Espriella could encounter difficulty advancing his program should he win. Social protests are a risk, particularly regarding his plans to cut spending and adopt a tougher security stance.

The election could also influence monetary policy, with implications for financial conditions and thus for public finances and growth. Despite rising inflation, the Banco de la República (Banrep) voted to hold its policy rate at 11.25% after swift prior increases of 200 basis points, amid explicit pressure from the executive branch for looser policy. The elections could influence Banrep’s next steps starting with its June 30 board meeting, and will also determine who fills two vacancies on its seven-member board in 2029.

Fitch’s downgrade of Colombia to ‘BB’/Stable in December 2025 reflected the agency’s view that the starting point for public finances had weakened considerably, and that improvement would take time regardless of the election outcome. Faster-than-expected fiscal adjustment, higher growth, and lower real rates that support debt stabilization could be positive for the rating. A worsening of these variables that steepens the debt trajectory could be negative.

Above image: Fitch Ratings

Right-wing presidential candidate Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella emerged as the frontrunner in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday, setting up a high-stakes runoff against left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in a contest that could reshape the political future of one of Latin America’s largest economies.

With more than 97% of ballots counted, National Registry Bulletin No. 15 showed De la Espriella leading with 43.77% of the vote, or approximately 10.1 million ballots, compared with Cepeda’s 40.88%, or slightly above 9.4 million votes. The margin of roughly 667,000 votes exceeded many pre-election forecasts and positioned the Barranquilla-based criminal defense lawyer as the favorite heading into the decisive June 21 runoff.

Election authorities reported that voting unfolded peacefully across the country, with preliminary results available just 90 minutes after polling stations closed at 4:00 p.m. More than 41 million Colombians had been eligible to participate in the election, including 1.4 million citizens residing abroad.

The result represents a significant rebuke to President Gustavo Petro’s political project and highlights growing voter concerns over security, economic performance and public confidence in state institutions.

Petro, who is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, has thrown his support behind Cepeda, a leading figure within the governing coalition and one of the principal defenders of the government’s controversial “Total Peace” strategy. The policy sought negotiated settlements with FARC dissidents, criminal organizations and other armed groups operating throughout the country, but critics argue it failed to reduce violence in many regions.

While Cepeda entered election day as the favorite in most opinion polls, De la Espriella successfully capitalized on public frustration over extortion, insecurity, illegal armed groups and what many voters perceive as a deterioration of public order under Petro’s administration.

Known to supporters as “El Tigre,” De la Espriella built his campaign around a tough-on-crime platform inspired in part by the security policies of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele. He has promised to strengthen the military, restore state authority in conflict-affected regions and confront criminal organizations with what he describes as an uncompromising approach.

His message appears to have resonated particularly among middle-class voters, business sectors and residents of regions heavily impacted by drug trafficking and armed violence.

The election also exposed the weakness of Colombia’s political center, which for years attempted to position itself as an alternative to the country’s increasingly polarized political landscape.

Conservative candidate Paloma Valencia secured more than 1.5 million votes (or 6.9%) but remained well behind the two frontrunners. Although her campaign attracted traditional conservatives and followers of former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, she struggled to expand beyond the party’s core support base.

Centrist Sergio Fajardo, the former mayor of Medellín and former governor of Antioquia, won just 4.6% of the vote, just shy of one million ballots. Once regarded as a politician capable of bridging Colombia’s ideological divides, Fajardo failed in his third attempt to reach the presidency as voters increasingly gravitated toward candidates offering sharply contrasting visions for the country’s future.

Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López suffered one of the day’s most dramatic defeats, capturing less than 1% of the national vote. The result marked a stunning collapse for a politician who only a few years ago was considered among Colombia’s most vocal leaders.

Analysts say the runoff campaign is now likely to become a referendum on Petro’s presidency and the future direction of the country.

For Cepeda’s supporters, the June 21 vote offers an opportunity to preserve and deepen many of the social and political reforms promoted by the current administration. For De la Espriella’s backers, it represents a chance to reverse those policies and return to a security-centered model associated with the administrations of former president Álvaro Uribe.

The key question over the coming weeks will be whether De la Espriella can consolidate support among conservative and independent voters while Cepeda seeks to unite the left and attract Colombians wary of a return to hardline security policies.

After a largely peaceful election day, Colombia now faces three weeks of intense campaigning before voters make what many observers consider one of the most consequential political decisions since the country’s historic shift to the left in 2022.