Colombians face three sharply different futures in May 31 vote

Colombia votes on May 31 with its presidential race concentrated around three candidates whose platforms diverge on nearly every dimension of economic and security policy relevant to foreign investors. For corporate executives, institutional investors, and multinational operations with Colombian exposure, the choice between senator Iván Cepeda, senator Paloma Valencia, and defense attorney Abelardo de la Espriella carries direct, measurable implications for the regulatory environment, foreign direct investment (FDI) conditions, energy sector licensing, and geopolitical alignment through at least 2030.

No candidate is projected to clear the 50%-plus-one threshold required to win outright on May 31, making a runoff election on June 21 the expected outcome. The question that will determine the direction of that runoff — and by extension the next administration — is which of the two opposition candidates finishes second.

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A Race Reshaped by Late Polling

The final-week polling picture shifted substantially, and the trajectory matters as much as the snapshot. The CONDOR weighted aggregate — which incorporates surveys from six polling firms and applies greater weight to more recent data — placed the race as of May 23 at: Cepeda 36.3%, De la Espriella 29.1%, Valencia 16.7%.

Invamer, one of Colombia’s most established polling firms, surveyed 3,800 respondents across 152 municipalities between May 13 and May 20, registering Cepeda at 44.6%, De la Espriella at 31.6%, and Valencia at 14.0%. The Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC) published a survey conducted May 22 and 23 showing Cepeda at 33.4%, De la Espriella at 30.9%, and Valencia at 12.6%.

Comparing those figures to the Fundación Génesis Crea survey from May 4 through May 11 — which placed Cepeda at 35.1%, Valencia at 25.4%, and De la Espriella at 21.6% — indicates a multi-poll trend of De la Espriella gaining approximately nine to ten percentage points in three weeks while Valencia shed a comparable share. AS/COA’s poll tracker confirms the directional consistency across firms.

Atlas Intel, which published figures more favorable to De la Espriella, is currently under investigation by Colombia’s Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) for potential methodology violations and could face suspension of its operations. Those figures are treated with caution in this analysis.

Runoff modeling diverges between firms. Fundación Génesis Crea showed Valencia defeating Cepeda 49.1% to 44.7% in a second-round matchup — meaning she was the stronger opposition candidate in that scenario. The Guarumo/Ecoanalítica survey found Cepeda losing all hypothetical runoff scenarios, including against De la Espriella. Two minor candidates — former senator Clara López and former Chocó governor Luis Gilberto Murillo — withdrew and endorsed Cepeda before the first round, a consolidation that appears to have had limited effect on his polling numbers.

Finance Colombia reported in May that the campaign has been marked by an unusual absence of traditional televised debates. Cepeda declined to participate in events organized by major media outlets, stating that proposed formats lacked neutrality. Former Bogotá Mayor Claudia López, herself a candidate, said publicly that Cepeda’s refusal was motivated by an unwillingness to defend his record as the architect of President Gustavo Petro‘s Paz Total security negotiation strategy.

Security Policy: The Three Approaches to Armed Groups

Public security is the top voter concern heading into the election. InSight Crime documented that the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) launched a major offensive against FARC dissident factions in Norte de Santander in early 2025, resulting in mass civilian casualties in the Catatumbo region. In Chocó and Antioquia, the ELN and the Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (AGC), commonly known as the Clan del Golfo, are competing for control of illegal gold mining corridors and drug trafficking routes. In Cauca, FARC dissident factions have established territorial control in areas where state presence has collapsed.

Cepeda’s approach to security is defined by his role as the principal legislative architect of Paz Total. As chair of the Senate‘s peace commission, he designed the framework that extended negotiating status to the ELN, FARC dissident groups, and the Clan del Golfo. His stated rationale is that targeting the financial leadership of drug networks rather than foot soldiers produces more durable results — a position that has academic backing in narcotics policy literature. In practice, Paz Total produced ceasefires that were repeatedly violated, and security indicators in conflict-affected departments deteriorated during the Petro administration. A Cepeda presidency is expected to continue the negotiated settlement model, with the military operating under political constraints.

Valencia’s security platform is based on reinstating Seguridad Democrática, the doctrine associated with former president Álvaro Uribe’s administrations from 2002 to 2010. The core elements are expanded military presence in rural conflict zones, dismantling of rural criminal networks, and resumption of extradition agreements with the United States — which Petro suspended, effectively shielding cartel leadership from US federal prosecution. The Uribe-era approach resulted in measurable reductions in homicide rates, forced displacement, and ELN and FARC territorial control, though human rights organizations documented serious abuses by security forces during that period.

De la Espriella has stated explicitly that his government would have no peace process. He advocates for a model similar to El Salvador’s under President Nayib Bukele: mass incarceration, construction of high-security prison facilities, classification of guerrilla and cartel organizations as foreign terrorist organizations, and broad military offensives. He has not detailed how such operations would be financed or how the mass detention model would interact with Colombia’s Constitutional Court, which has repeatedly constrained executive security powers.

For the armed groups operating in Norte de Santander and Cauca, the historical record indicates that Colombia’s criminal organizations respond more acutely to sustained, institutionally grounded military pressure and functioning extradition pipelines than to political rhetoric. By that measure, Valencia’s platform — which rebuilds the institutional security apparatus incrementally — represents a more structurally credible threat to the ELN and the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) FARC dissidents. For the Clan del Golfo leadership, extradition to the United States has historically been the principal deterrent, and Valencia’s program explicitly restores it.

Business Climate and Employment Conditions

The Petro administration enacted a series of minimum wage increases totaling more than 60% over four years — including a 16% increase for 2023, the largest single-year hike in Colombian history, and a 23.78% increase for 2026 — restructured labor regulations to expand premium pay requirements for night, weekend, and holiday shifts, and raised corporate tax rates to fund social spending programs. The Asociación Nacional de Empresarios de Colombia (ANDI) characterized the regulatory environment as adverse to private investment. Finance Colombia tracked a material decline in FDI in the extractive sector over the same period.

Cepeda supported those labor and fiscal reforms throughout their legislative passage. His platform extends the Petro model: increased state social spending, continued land redistribution programs, and maintenance of the current wage and labor cost structure. For companies with established Colombian operations, the regulatory environment is manageable; for companies evaluating market entry or operational expansion, the cost structure adds friction.

Valencia’s economic program emphasizes corporate stability and private sector investment as the primary mechanisms of job creation. Her vice-presidential running mate, Juan Daniel Oviedo — former director of DANE, Colombia’s national statistics agency — represents a technocratic orientation focused on reducing structural market distortions, streamlining public procurement, and scaling back state administrative overhead. Oviedo’s appointment is a direct signal to the business community that economic management would be data-driven rather than ideologically directed. Oviedo also publicly identifies as a member of the LGBTQ+ community, a departure from the traditional social conservatism of Centro Democrático.

De la Espriella’s economic orientation is pro-business with protectionist elements. His vice-presidential candidate, José Manuel Restrepo — who served as Colombia’s Finance Minister and Commerce Minister — provides institutional credibility on fiscal and trade policy. Restrepo’s presence on the ticket signals commitment to fiscal discipline and regulatory reduction in the extractive and commercial sectors. De la Espriella’s personal style, however, introduces operational uncertainty; his campaign has generated multiple high-profile controversies, including a public altercation with Caracol Noticias journalist María Lucía Fernández during a live broadcast and a formal apology following misconduct allegations by journalist Laura Rodríguez of Piso 8 FM.

Foreign Investment, Oil, and Mining

The extractive sector is the most consequential economic policy dimension for international capital. Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC; BVC: ECOPETROL) — Colombia’s state-controlled energy company and the largest corporation in the country — has operated under exploration restrictions during the Petro administration, which has opposed new fossil fuel contracts on climate grounds.

Cepeda’s position extends the Petro framework: mandatory transition away from fossil fuels, heavy restrictions or outright prohibitions on new oil and gas exploration contracts, and stringent environmental licensing requirements for open-pit mining operations. Foreign investment would be directed by policy toward green hydrogen, ecotourism, and smallholder agriculture. For the multinational oil majors with Colombian operations and for institutional investors in the mining sector, a Cepeda presidency represents a continuation of the current constraints and, in some contract scenarios, an accelerated wind-down of Colombian portfolios.

In a related development, Finance Colombia reported in May that Ecopetrol’s president, Ricardo Roa, has been formally charged in connection with alleged campaign spending violations during Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign. The case will be inherited by whoever takes office in August.

Valencia’s position is that hydrocarbon revenues are essential to Colombia’s macroeconomic stability and that the country cannot exit the sector before alternative revenue structures exist. Her platform actively encourages FDI in petroleum exploration, is open to regulated fracking, and commits to clearing the environmental licensing backlog that has stalled multiple large-scale gold and copper mining projects. For energy and mining companies currently blocked by administrative delays, this represents the most direct path to project advancement.

De la Espriella’s position goes further: essentially deregulating the environmental licensing process for major extraction projects on the grounds that Colombia’s economic sovereignty takes precedence over environmental restrictions he characterizes as externally imposed. The practical constraint is whether a De la Espriella administration would have the institutional coherence and congressional support to deliver regulatory rollback, given that his movement has no established political party structure and entered the race through an independent signature campaign.

Foreign Policy: Washington Alignment vs. Multipolar Strategy

Colombia’s relationship with the United States deteriorated materially under Petro, who aligned Colombia with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, pursued closer ties with China and Russia, and suspended extradition agreements. US counternarcotics cooperation was strained throughout the period.

Cepeda is committed to what he describes as a multipolar foreign policy — maintaining functional diplomatic channels with Washington and Brussels while deepening strategic and commercial relationships with China and Russia. His alignment with regional left-of-center governments in Mexico, Brazil, and Bolivia would position Colombia as part of a Latin American bloc that has grown increasingly skeptical of US regional leadership. For US companies operating in Colombia, this trajectory does not mean immediate operational disruption, but it reduces Colombia’s utility as a reliable counterpart on security cooperation, counter-narcotics intelligence sharing, and trade dispute resolution.

Valencia positions a return to the Western alignment as a core objective. She would prioritize restoring the US-Colombia relationship, reinforcing the bilateral Free Trade Agreement, and reestablishing intelligence-sharing mechanisms that were reduced under Petro. Her framing positions Colombia as a democratic anchor in a region experiencing authoritarian pressures.

De la Espriella takes the most explicit pro-US position in the race. La Silla Vacía reported that De la Espriella or entities linked to his campaign donated more than $90,000 USD to the US Republican Party, a fact that raises questions about the nature and expectations of those relationships. He has publicly aligned himself with the populist right in the United States, takes a hostile posture toward China, Russia, and Venezuela, and has characterized his security approach as consistent with a transactional alliance with Washington focused on counter-narcotics enforcement and cartel designation as foreign terrorist organizations.

“Ese pisco robó a 200 mil colombianos.” — Claudia López, former Mayor of Bogotá, referring to presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella’s legal representation of DMG pyramid scheme founder David Murcia Guzmán, during a presidential campaign event.

Corruption and Judicial Independence

All three candidates have stated commitments to fighting corruption, though their approaches and focal points differ in ways that are material to the institutional environment for business operations.

Cepeda’s legislative record includes serious, documented work investigating paramilitary infiltration of Colombia’s political institutions — the period known as parapolítica — and pursuing accountability for those cases. His blind spot, his critics argue, is corruption within the current administration. When Ecopetrol’s Ricardo Roa was formally charged in connection with Petro’s 2022 campaign, the response from the Pacto Histórico coalition was subdued. Cepeda has been Álvaro Uribe’s primary judicial antagonist in the Senate; a Cepeda administration would offer no institutional protection to Uribe and would be expected to support the full progress of judicial proceedings against him. For left-wing politicians facing legal exposure, including former Medellín mayor Daniel Quintero, a Cepeda administration would be expected to be more receptive to amnesty frameworks.

Valencia’s approach to anti-corruption is structural rather than prosecutorial: strengthening the independence of the Contraloría General de la República and the Fiscalía General de la Nación, implementing digital transparency in public procurement, and reducing informal executive influence over judicial processes. She would be expected to apply political and rhetorical pressure on behalf of Uribe — her political mentor and a close ally — though her legislative track record indicates a degree of institutional independence from Centro Democrático party orthodoxy.

De la Espriella’s anti-corruption rhetoric centers on severe criminal penalties for corrupt officials. The credibility of that position is complicated by his professional history, which is examined in detail below.

De la Espriella’s Legal Career: The Documented Record

De la Espriella’s campaign has faced sustained scrutiny over his client history as one of Colombia’s highest-profile criminal defense attorneys. The record is documented in reporting by El Colombiano, El Espectador, and the investigative outlet Corrupción al Día.

His documented client roster includes Salvatore Mancuso, the former supreme commander of the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) paramilitary network; multiple legislators convicted in the parapolítica scandal, which established systematic infiltration of Colombia’s congress by paramilitary organizations; David Murcia Guzmán, the operator of the DMG pyramid scheme that defrauded an estimated 200,000 Colombian investors; the Nule Primos, convicted of large-scale public contract fraud; and Álex Saab, the Colombian businessman extradited to the United States on charges of acting as the primary money launderer for the Maduro government in Venezuela. According to Corrupción al Día, De la Espriella’s legal fees from Saab reportedly reached $12 million USD and included private aircraft travel.

De la Espriella’s response to this line of criticism rests on due process principles: that every accused person is entitled to vigorous legal defense regardless of the charges, and that his ability to navigate Colombia’s criminal code at its most complex levels demonstrates the expertise required to enforce the law from the executive branch. The argument has legal validity as a principle. The specific issue for foreign compliance officers and US government counterparts is the Saab representation: the same Nicolás Maduro whose regime De la Espriella’s campaign now characterizes as an ideological enemy received legal services from De la Espriella’s firm when the representation was commercially available.

The Fiscalía investigated De la Espriella in connection with alleged paramilitary links in 2009 and again in 2012; both investigations were dismissed for insufficient evidence, and he carries no convictions or active investigations on those matters.

Cepeda’s Family History and Ideological Background

Critics of Iván Cepeda, including Enrique Gómez of the Salvación Nacional party, have argued that his family background constitutes evidence of structural alignment with guerrilla movements. The record on this point merits examination.

Cepeda is the son of Manuel Cepeda Vargas, who served as Secretary-General of the Colombian Communist Party and as a senator for the Unión Patriótica (UP), a left-wing political movement that was systematically exterminated by a combination of state actors and paramilitary organizations during the 1980s and 1990s. Manuel Cepeda Vargas was assassinated on August 9, 1994. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights subsequently found the Colombian state responsible for his murder. The FARC-EP named its Frente Urbano Manuel Cepeda Vargas — an urban front operating within the Bloque Occidental — in the elder Cepeda’s honor.

The Fundación Paz y Reconciliación (PARES) has documented that Iván Cepeda’s relationship with his father’s political positions was more complex than the family lineage alone suggests. After studying in Bulgaria in 1981, Cepeda broke from his father’s Soviet-oriented communist framework and aligned with democratic leftists including Bernardo Jaramillo Ossa, who publicly rejected the FARC’s armed strategy. Cepeda has repeatedly stated his repudiation of the FARC’s use of his father’s name. No documented evidence connects him to operational coordination with current armed groups.

What the family history does establish is the ideological framework through which Cepeda processes security policy: a belief, grounded in personal and political experience, that the Colombian state’s institutional violence has been as destructive as guerrilla violence, and that negotiated settlements are structurally preferable to military solutions. That framework generates Paz Total. It also generates a posture toward ELN and FARC dissident negotiators that prioritizes process continuity over verified compliance — a disposition that armed groups have demonstrably exploited to maintain territorial and operational positions while negotiation frameworks provided legal cover.

Valencia and the Uribe Question

The comparison to former president Iván Duque (2018–2022) comes up regularly in discussions of Valencia’s political independence. Duque, who had limited independent political standing before Uribe selected him, was perceived throughout his term as governing within constraints set by his patron — a dynamic that Colombian political cartoonists characterized as ventriloquism.

Valencia’s profile differs materially. She is the granddaughter of former Colombian president Guillermo León Valencia, carries her own political lineage, and has served in the Senate for over a decade, building positions on agrarian reform, judicial modernization, and indigenous land rights that have placed her at variance with standard Centro Democrático positions on those issues. She won the Gran Consulta por Colombia primary on March 8 with more than 45% of the vote — over 3.2 million Colombians — establishing a democratic mandate distinct from any party endorsement.

She would be expected to use institutional and rhetorical channels to support Uribe in the ongoing judicial proceedings against him, and to apply pressure on the trajectory of those cases. Whether that constitutes political interference with judicial independence or normal advocacy within democratic norms is a question on which observers disagree. What the legislative record does not support is the characterization of Valencia as incapable of independent governance.

Press Freedom and the Media Environment

Press freedom carries an indirect but measurable correlation with rule-of-law quality, which in turn affects operational risk for companies that rely on regulatory predictability and transparent legal processes.

Cepeda has maintained a posture toward critical media that mirrors President Petro’s practice of characterizing adversarial outlets as acting in the interests of economic elites. Under Petro, this produced a systematic exclusion of critical media from official information flows and persistent rhetorical delegitimization of independent journalism, though the press remained legally free to operate. A Cepeda administration would be expected to continue this pattern.

Valencia’s background in Colombia’s traditional political and intellectual establishment, combined with a decade in a party that has faced sustained critical coverage from Colombia’s major outlets, points toward a conventional institutional relationship with the press — adversarial at times, but within professional norms.

De la Espriella’s conduct during the campaign provides direct evidence of his approach. He publicly called Caracol Noticias journalist María Lucía Fernández “ignorant” in a live interview. He issued a formal apology after journalist Laura Rodríguez of Piso 8 FM made allegations of inappropriate conduct. His campaign strategy has drawn comparisons to the approach of Argentine president Javier Milei and US president Donald Trump in its use of direct digital channels to circumvent traditional media while publicly attacking outlets that publish critical coverage. The press would remain legally protected under a De la Espriella administration, but the operational environment for investigative journalism would be hostile.

The Ideological Spectrum: Market Liberalism to State Direction

The question of which candidate is most aligned with free-market principles requires a distinction that the international business press frequently elides: the difference between economic deregulation and political authoritarianism. These can, and in this election do, exist independently.

De la Espriella’s platform is often described in international coverage as the most pro-market. His deregulation proposals for the extractive sector and his corporate tax rhetoric support that reading in the economic domain. His security platform, however, involves a substantial expansion of state coercive power: mass detention operations, a mega-prison construction program, and the suspension of standard due process protections to facilitate rapid incarceration of criminal suspects. The Cato Institute‘s framework of economic freedom as inseparable from civil liberties would categorize a state powerful enough to detain people without standard procedural protections as a state that represents an institutional risk to property rights and contract enforcement as well.

Valencia’s platform, anchored by Oviedo’s technocratic program of structural market reform — reduced administrative barriers, streamlined procurement, smaller state overhead, maintained civil liberties — represents the closest approximation to coherent market liberalism available in this field. It does not carry the rhetorical force of De la Espriella’s deregulation proposals, but it has more institutional grounding.

Cepeda’s platform is the furthest from market liberalism by any standard measure: state-directed investment allocation, wealth redistribution through tax and transfer mechanisms, state expansion in healthcare and pension administration, and agrarian land redistribution. His program is continuous with the Petro administration’s economic framework.

Minor Candidates: The Rest of the Ballot

Several other candidates remain on the ballot and are drawing small but potentially consequential vote shares in a first round where the margin between second and third place could be narrow.

Claudia López, former mayor of Bogotá running under the Con Claudia Imparables coalition, positions herself as a progressive centrist with a documented anti-corruption record. Her polling has not broken 3.5% in major surveys, and her high polarization ratings from her mayoral term limit her growth ceiling. Her attacks on De la Espriella during the campaign — she publicly called him a “defender of the mafia” in reference to his client history — have been among the most pointed in the race, and factually grounded on the public record.

Sergio Fajardo, making his third consecutive presidential run under Dignidad y Compromiso, continues to represent a technocratic, education-focused centrism grounded in his work transforming Medellín in the early 2000s. He has not broken 3.5% in any major poll in this cycle.

Roy Barreras, running under La Fuerza de la Paz following his Frente por la Vida primary victory, is one of the most experienced political operatives in Colombia, having been part of multiple coalition governments across ideological lines over two decades. He polls below the threshold for meaningful first-round impact.

Miguel Uribe Londoño, running under Partido Demócrata, represents a younger-generation conservative platform emphasizing fiscal discipline and private sector growth, broadly consistent with Valencia’s program. He also polls below 3.5%.

Carlos Caicedo, running on a regionalist platform emphasizing decentralization away from Bogotá, draws support primarily from the Costa Caribe. His structural argument about Colombia’s administrative over-centralization is substantively grounded, though his national profile is insufficient to affect the first-round outcome.

Investment Implications

For international capital with Colombian exposure, the three-way race produces three materially different operational scenarios.

A Cepeda victory — which remains the single most likely first-round outcome based on available polling — would signal continuity of the Petro-era regulatory framework: sustained capital outflow pressure, high corporate tax rates, no new fossil fuel exploration contracts for Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC; BVC: ECOPETROL) or private operators, continued labor cost escalation, and a foreign policy trajectory away from Washington. Colombian equity valuations would be expected to remain under pressure. The mining licensing backlog would continue to accumulate. A Cepeda administration would not replicate Venezuela’s economic trajectory — Colombia’s independent central bank, Banco de la República, its functioning constitutional court, and its institutional depth provide meaningful buffers — but the investment headwinds would be structural rather than cyclical.

A Valencia victory would represent the sharpest regulatory reversal available in this field. Ecopetrol exploration contracts would be expected to advance. The mining licensing backlog would be addressed. US bilateral relations would be restored, reactivating security intelligence cooperation and trade facilitation mechanisms. The Colombian peso would be expected to strengthen as country risk premium declined. The path to that outcome now requires her to either close the gap significantly on De la Espriella in the first round or rely on runoff polling that showed her as the stronger second-round candidate — data that predates the most recent polling shift.

A De la Espriella victory introduces the widest distribution of possible outcomes. The upside scenario involves Restrepo managing fiscal and trade policy competently, genuine regulatory rollback in the extractive sector, aggressive extradition resumption, and security operations that reduce the physical risk premium in conflict-affected departments including Cauca, Norte de Santander, and Chocó. The downside scenario involves recurring crises generated by De la Espriella’s personal conduct, conflicts of interest arising from his former client relationships, and authoritarian security measures that attract international human rights attention and complicate bilateral relationships. Restrepo’s presence on the ticket reduces the probability of the downside scenario but does not eliminate it.

The current polling trend indicates that right-wing voters are consolidating around De la Espriella at Valencia’s expense. Whether that consolidation produces a runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda — and whether the runoff produces a left or right-wing government — remains uncertain. What the polling data does not support is the scenario, widely assumed until recently, of a Cepeda-Valencia runoff in which Valencia was positioned as the structurally stronger opposition candidate.

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Innovative service models strengthen Bogotá’s tourism infrastructure.

Colombia’s economic landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, driven not only by institutional shifts but by the indomitable spirit of its local entrepreneurs. The story of Julio Jiménez, founder of American Visa Hotel, serves as a powerful testament to the social mobility and resilience defining the country’s modern business narrative. From selling empanadas as a child to managing a diverse portfolio of hospitality and logistics assets, Jiménez embodies the grit that is reshaping the nation’s service sector.

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In this exclusive interview, Loren Moss of Finance Colombia sits down with Jiménez at his newest property, Destino. Their conversation covers a journey of hardship, recovery, and a radical commitment to social responsibility that challenges traditional corporate models. For the international investment community, Jiménez’s trajectory offers a window into the burgeoning mid-market hospitality segments that are being built on authentic local experience and a rigorous focus on consumer security.

This evolution is particularly evident in his recent move to professionalize the transportation industry at El Dorado International Airport. By integrating technology and hospitality standards into the taxi sector, Jiménez is working to eliminate the friction points that historically deter foreign business travelers. It is a narrative of redemption and professionalization that highlights why Colombia continues to maintain its competitive edge in the regional tourism market.

Finance Colombia: I’m here with Julio Jiménez, the founder of American Visa, and here we are in one of his American Visa hotels, ‘Destino.’ And it’s an interesting name that the company has but the most fascinating thing is your history. Tell me how you started in business. Very young, right?

Julio Jiménez: Yes, since I was 8 years old. I had a struggle, grieving when my father separated from my mother. Four brothers stayed practically in one room, in one bedroom. Five people: my mother, my four brothers; struggling a lot, because of the separation. And from there we started working, because since then I started doing business, since I was 8 years old.

Finance Colombia: Wow, and what was your first business?

Julio Jiménez: My first business was to tell the principal of the school where I studied that we didn’t have anything to eat, and she should let us sell some empanadas, we had empanadas for sale and I started selling empanadas in the Cooperative at the age of 8 years old.

Finance Colombia: And that was here in Bogotá?

Julio Jiménez: In Bogotá.

Finance Colombia: Okay, and after that you started to work at the airport, right?

Julio Jiménez: Well, the bad thing about the empanadas was that I stayed with the empanadas until I was 19 years old. I saw money; I didn’t study anymore. I wasn’t inclined to study, I left after 5th grade but I started selling empanadas at the age of 10, 12, 14 years old and I was able to develop my mind, because I had a stand of empanadas in a corner where I was serving 50 people at once.

Finance Colombia: Wow.

Julio Jiménez: Taxi drivers, regular people, would come to my empanadas stand where I had two soda cases, 300 empanadas, butter, dough and a lot of people talked to me at the same time and I didn’t write anything down. I had a mind where… I knew you ate beef, chicken, a Hawaiian and you ate, and you ate… So I talked to 50 people at once and I was able to develop my mind, a photographic memory, a unique memory. Math is adding and subtracting, just that: to add, subtract, divide and multiply, and I developed my mind. After being an empanadas vendor, at the age of 19, I got married. I started gambling, I got addicted to it. When as a child you see money, and you don’t have a guide, a guide on how to manage finances, how to save money well… Money has chased me all my life, the money, the business, but I’ve been a bad administrator. I fell into gambling since I was 12 years old. Problems with ludomania, addiction, ludomania is the game: casino, gambling.

Finance Colombia: Yes, yes.

Julio Jiménez: Only 3 years ago I recovered from gambling. But the issue here that I want to tell you about is that I had many struggles in my life: hardship, hardship and more hardship. But from hardship something good always comes out. The teachings of each mark, of each wound, of each blow. Then I became a taxi driver at 21 years old, and I drove taxis for 14 years. As a taxi driver, I understood and I knew that I was very good with numbers and with the auditory part, and so I had three radio phones in my taxi listening to where they asked for taxis.

Finance Colombia: Yes.

Julio Jiménez: One here, another here, and I went around all of Bogotá driving but also getting to know people and listening. I’ve been very good at listening. I’ve never read, now I’ve read the Bible, but I’ve never read. But I listened, I listened when people get upset, I listened when people have good energy, when people are positive, when they are negative. And all that I learned in my taxi. Until I saw the El Dorado airport. Because of the people I took to the airport. I’d get to the airport, they’d get off my taxi, but someone else would come and say, “Hey, take me to the hotel.” And the hotels I would take them to, 15 years ago… As a taxi driver, they asked me for hotels. I took them to hotels where they gave a commission to the taxi driver, a commission of, I don’t know, at that time it was 30,000 COP, it was 10 USD today. I’d get to the hotels, they gave me my commission, 2 or 3 a day. I wondered, “What do the people that stay at the airport do?” I dared to let go of my taxi, which was what I knew how to do. I know how to do 3 things in life: drive a taxi, sell empanadas and sell hotels. That’s my art, what I learned. I let go of my taxi and I started selling hotels at the airport. I went from a taxi driver, to getting out of it, asking for permission to a hotel at that time, 15 years ago, I said, “Give me a certificate and back me up so I can be at the airport with a sign-”

“When you dedicate yourself to serve, to help, to protect. That is the motto of the American Visa company.” — Julio Jiménez, Founder of American Visa Hotel.

Finance Colombia: ‘And I’ll get you customers.’

Julio Jiménez: Lorenzo you need a hotel, I have a hotel near the airport, I’ll take you, bring you back, give you food, the entire service. And I started, and like me there were already 200 people working in different shifts, it was a closed circle, that business has been there for 40 years, at the airport. It’s called informalism, being touts. Those that when you get off, “I have the Uber, I have the Uber.” In the whole world, even in China, there are airport touts. So I started selling hotels and it turns out that they are talking to the best speaker, because my God gave me a gift to know how to express myself, to know how to convince and I started selling hotels and I sold 15 rooms daily, when I started 15 years ago, and 15 rooms with 50 percent commissions…

Finance Colombia: That’s very profitable.

Julio Jiménez: Profitable, tempting, but there is also indiscipline, because 15 years ago I wasn’t very disciplined. I was still doing drugs, gambling, alcohol, women, treachery, learning. For me it was easy to earn 500 USD a day in commissions but it was also easy to spend them in one hour.

Finance Colombia: Easy come, easy go.

Julio Jiménez: Correct.

Finance Colombia: You still didn’t have discipline to save.

Julio Jiménez: No, I was paving the road, as I always say, I always had that hardship. The ludomania, addiction management, gambling management, emotions management. I was hospitalized for 4 months in a clinic 14 years ago for gambling management. I committed myself for 4 months in a clinic for addiction management because I got obsessed with gambling.

Finance Colombia: And how did you get over that eventually?

Julio Jiménez: Look, I spent 4 months with psychology, psychiatry in the clinic, here in Bogotá, my diagnosis wasn’t bipolar, it wasn’t schizophrenic but it was compulsive gambler, and that is the worst of all.

Finance Colombia: Addicted to dopamine.

Julio Jiménez: To dopamine, serotonin, endorphins. Everything, everything, everything, has to be like this. And the compulsive gambler risks everything, he does not lose, he plays everything. Unfortunately that was almost all of my life. Many pitfalls and many defeats, since very young the money came to my life and I didn’t know how to handle it, then I met the Lord when I met Jesus Christ… 3 years ago I fell to the feet of Jesus before the pandemic. 6 years ago I had a business opportunity, I left the airport when the pandemic came, I started with a small hotel of 12 rooms, the pandemic came and everything broke. When they reopen hotels, it takes me out of the airport. At the airport they did not want to see me because of a betrayal. I set up a business in the airport before the pandemic, a special transport business of white cars (formalized, legal transportation), and the people in the airport with whom I set up the business betrayed me, he remained because he was a lawyer and I had nothing. He ran things there, and they said, “Julio, don’t call us, we will call you.” They removed me from the airport. I went to the transport terminal.

Finance Colombia: In Salitre, yes.

Julio Jiménez: That’s where I worked as a tout. “Hotel, hotel!” It wasn’t the airport but it was a terminal. We start the travel agency American Visa Tours. It still exists. It is a long story, it would take two hours to tell it because it is already edited even for a book, they already made a script of how everything happened. Because the spiritual connection with God was very big because in the terminal when it was closed for the pandemic, the people were thrown outside. A group of foreigners, of Venezuelans, of Colombians, There was no transport, they’d get here and get tossed on the ground. I had a hotel with 12 empty rooms, so what did I do? I had three trucks like this, owed 8 months’ rent. But I wanted to start again.

During that learning lesson there were nights that I went out to hustle, I loaded people from Cúcuta, I arrived and I loaded people in the terminal, “Going to Cúcuta?” in my truck. I put 11 passengers and took them to Cúcuta. I did like 10 trips. And during that time while I offered that illegal transport to Cúcuta, because it had ended, they also asked me about hotels, so I packaged hotel and transport, so I could survive, but in that time I realized that people couldn’t pay. Not for the hotel, or transport, or food. Because they are like refugees, if it’s bad here, it’s worse in Venezuela. So what did we do, what did the Lord do through me? I have an empty hotel, I have a truck to take people, it’s raining, kids are getting wet, the grandparents, the pregnant women… Let’s help them. And on several occasions we opened the hotel doors, which was broke. And we gave them free nights and gifted them a chicken or something to eat.

There, my dear Lorenzo, Heaven’s doors opened, and American Visa started. With that act of faith, of love, I don’t know what happened, God simply made a blessing here because for the past 6 years American Visa, which was born in that hardship, has not stopped receiving blessings. Today we are a hotel chain with 8 hotels. A travel agency, three agencies we own, the restaurant chain the technology company. More than 7 companies.

Finance Colombia: These hotels are beautiful. I think it’s new, it’s like international class. We went, without knowing you, we went to eat in Camelia, your restaurant in route 40, yesterday. It’s good. I’m always here in Bogotá in an event in Corferias. I remember seeing your brand in front of the embassy because you have services, packages, everything included not only for holidays but people who come for business in the embassy, people who are in Corferias because everything here is close to Corferias. What is like, the market or what is the audience or the passengers you aim for? I’m not going to say strategy, but which travelers fit best with what you do?

Julio Jiménez: I learned as a taxi driver that a tourist requires a hotel. Requires a good restaurant and requires security. When the three things are given to a tourist, it turns into an ecosystem. Why not build the ecosystem? Transport, tourism accommodation, restaurants everything they need in one place. That’s what American Visa does. And everyone who arrives at the airport, well now with technology and social media and digital media many people are getting to know us. But my true business, where I started, it was airlines. When they lose a connecting flight, when they cancel a lot of flights, what they do is call American Visa. Because we have restaurants 24 hours, transport 24 hours and everything is ready to see you. From one to a thousand people a day.

Finance Colombia: It has happened to me many times in El Dorado, going back to Rionegro. It has happened to me.

Julio Jiménez: Now with this gigantic ecosystem, here we have over 500 rooms in Bogotá, not only for airlines but also to receive the international agencies that arrive in Bogotá. We receive them 24 hours, we have service in the airport 24 hours 365 days a year in which the first thing you do is to have kind face to greet you and take you to the hotel without cost because it is included in the package. We have a restaurant that works 24 hours so whenever you get there, you’ll find food. We have our agents, language, we have our employees who work here willing to give love.

Finance Colombia: And that is the last thing I wanted to talk to you about, that this moment is my first time to meet you but I have known… We are here recording the ANATO Vitrina Turística event, the most important tourism event in Colombia, and I met people from your American Visa team, and they all have a commitment that they show but apart from that I have heard stories or cases of employees with humble beginnings, a lady whose mother had cancer and she came to you for a loan, and you were like “It’s no trouble.” And when people talk well about you behind your back, that speaks volumes.

Julio Jiménez: Look, the social aspect, when God blesses us, I met the Lord 6 years ago, when we helped those people on the ground, when we gave them shelter and food. God opens the gates of Heaven and the door opens. That also opens my heart. I have a duty, for the 35 years that I spent gambling, to help, to serve and protect. Today my debt is not with the casino nor with their people but with the people who need help. God transformed all of my illness. Because I keep praying every day. I wake up at 3:30 AM to connect with the Lord and to plan my day and I go to bed at 10 or 11 PM planning what business we are going to do. If there is no business, there is no risk. When you fail, it is cowardice. But when you don’t fail you can know for certain that God has picked you up for good. He does not fail. You are the one who fails. If you don’t fail, there will be no failure.

Every business shines, every business prospers, if you put it in God’s hands. And how? With service. thinking that the person who you help, whether good or bad, a believer or not, is a human being, who needs an opportunity. And American Visa is dedicated today to opportunities it is the company of opportunities. We receive people who have been in jail, people who have made mistakes, those who do not know how to read, those who can’t write, those that have many titles and need to be trained because the ego is killing them. Because today the biggest disease in the world is the ego, and depression, anxiety, so here we are about receiving everyone, giving them a hug and finding the wound to heal the soul. When you heal the soul you connect with God.

Finance Colombia: And I believe that also when you come from humble beginnings, you know what’s it like to go hungry, it is different from someone who is born with a silver spoon in their mouth. It is different when you know what’s it like to ask for a chance. when you know how it is to sleep on the floor, like when you were helping them. And helping them without knowing what will happen later, and look at all of this. How many hotels do you have?

Julio Jiménez: Eight hotels. We own three buildings and rent five, we own the transport agencies, American Visa has absorbed the companies that today transport to the most important airport in Colombia, they are from American Visa, of the holding.

Finance Colombia: And that is important because, I’m sorry because I know it is part of your story, but the taxi drivers here in Bogotá have a bad reputation. I wouldn’t say I’m scared, but I look for white cars, because I don’t want to be scammed, to be overcharged because it’s Sunday, or because of a foreign accent, and I look for a reliable transport, reliable people. And if you offer that, how can a traveler get in touch with you? Do you have a website?

Julio Jiménez: Right now, we have just acquired the Taxi Imperial company, who manages the airport. Taxi Imperial.

Finance Colombia: I know them, yes.

Julio Jiménez: American Visa at this moment has strategies… today is February 26, 2026. I ask you that you count 6 months. Give me 6 months my dear Lorenzo, and in 6 months, I’m putting it on the record. What image is the yellow taxi going to have? In 6 months, with the help of our Lord, we plan to transform the yellow transport. You will find the cabins where you will receive a friendly attention, “Where are you going, sir?” I offer you the yellow taxi, or the special service. But the yellow taxi will come out with the predetermined rate so you will see how much the user will pay without surprises. You will have a video camera and audio, if you wish, for security, if you forget an object, if you forget a bag or anything. This project is designed in service of the user. And to improve the image of the taxi driver. But image is improved with proof. And proof will be difficult because it’s a union, I was a taxi driver for 14 years and I charged hard, we are used to charging hard. But if the people who were overcharged paid for a bad service, when you know how much you will pay, with a good service, you will use the service again.

Finance Colombia: I pay more to have no surprises, rather than look for cheap but in the end get surprises.

Julio Jiménez: No, look, I can’t go over the speed limit but I will drive you safely. I’m not going to put reggaeton music, “What music do you want to listen?” I’m going to give you a water bottle, show you the videos that we are going to put in the back, because we are going to have corporate videos about Colombian tourism. We’ll show the hotels, restaurants, travel agencies. Everything you can do in Colombia. We will be professional drivers. Not taxi drivers. Every taxi driver at the airport will be a commercial driver. Selling services, selling a safe package, we are not going to overcharge anymore, we are going to do things well. And that client, we will call them after drop off, Lorenzo is going to his house in Cedritos, in 10 minutes we will call him, “Mr. Lorenzo, how was Mr. Camilo?” “How did he treat you? Would you use the service again?” It’s a post-sale, what we plan to do. That’s why I’m saying, give us 6 months, and you’ll hear about what we did with the yellow taxi in the airport.

Finance Colombia: So in September we are going to do another interview to see how it’s going.

Julio Jiménez: Gladly, I’ll be there to give you the numbers and the statistics of how we did it.

Finance Colombia: Excellent, it’s been an honor. Look, it is impressive what you do here, thanks for your time I know you are very busy in ANATO, we are as well, but what you have done so far is very impressive, I want to see you continue with these successes.

Julio Jiménez: It is for God’s glory, for the inspiration of people to see that all dreams can be fulfilled by faith, by the name of the Lord and in the name of helping society, which is the most important thing because the last thing you think about is in the profit, it will come later. But when you dedicate yourself to serve, to help, to protect. That is the motto of the American Visa company.

Finance Colombia: Well, American Visa, thank you very much.

Julio Jiménez: Thank you Lorenzo, God be with you.

Medellín, Colombia’s second-largest city, is often cited globally as a textbook example of urban transformation. Central to this evolution is ACI Medellín, the city’s specialized Agency for Cooperation and Investment. By fostering a unique “triple helix” collaboration between the public sector, private enterprise, and academia, the agency has managed to maintain a stable environment for capital even during periods of national political volatility.

In this exclusive interview, Loren Moss, Executive Editor of Finance Colombia, speaks with Cristina Zambrano Restrepo, the Executive Director of ACI Medellín. They discuss how the city nearly tripled its investment attraction over the past year, reaching over $400 million USD, and the strategies used to reassure international investors during a complex electoral landscape in Colombia.

Finance Colombia: I’m here with Cristina Zambrano Restrepo, the Executive Director of ACI Medellín. It’s always a pleasure to be with you. Thank you for the invitation. I know you’re extremely busy, so thank you for making the time to speak with Finance Colombia. How have you been?

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: Very well, thank you very much. Truly happy to be here with you. Thank you for accepting this invitation. Without a doubt, we work to bring good and positive news to this city, and thank you for being here and for sharing and conveying all of these good things.

Finance Colombia: Yes, today you talked about the successes that ACI Medellín and the city have had this year in attracting investment. Tell us a bit about some of those successes. I think it’s going to be another large business hotel, and tell us a little about how you’ve kept busy.

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: Of course. A major focus for us is job creation through investment attraction. So, what did we achieve this year? We went from USD 150 million generated last year to more than USD 400 million this year. As I’ve mentioned, this is reflected in the creation of more than 11,500 formal, high-quality jobs generated by this investment attraction. We have major allies and players here, such as Renault-Sofasa, Rivana Business Park, SoftServe, and POMA. A great deal of companies, some already established, others newly arriving in the region. TaskUs too, which is also extremely important and has made major commitments to us. These are the companies that manage to generate that employment.

Finance Colombia: Excellent, that’s fascinating. I have a history with Colombia of about 20 years, and here in Medellín of about 11 years, and it’s truly wonderful to see how the city has grown—not only in population, but in investment and innovation. However, we’re living in a time of high uncertainty around the world—not just in Colombia, not just in the United States, but globally. Especially when we talk about the sector, not in general terms, but politically and economically. Has this made attracting investment more difficult or more challenging over the past year? How has this affected efforts to attract FDI, like, foreign investment, and what strategies have you used to overcome this challenge?

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: Here, clearly, the political landscape affects and directly impacts confidence, right? The stability of a region, how we present ourselves to the world and to those very large capital investments, showing that we are a stable region, that we believe in them, and that we will support them. So, what strategies do we have? Without a doubt, it has been very challenging. We would like, for example, to be able to offer a range of benefits, extensions, fast-track processes in permitting and such, but in that sense we depend heavily on the national government. But we don’t stop there. We work from the regional level and have a firm commitment locally, focusing on what we ourselves can support, contribute, and manage from this area, the private sector. Which also helped sustain the region during the previous administration, and the academic sector, all the universities, and that ecosystem, which have been fundamental. And now the public sector as well, we are all working together specifically from this region to demonstrate that we are a region that inspires confidence, offers stability, and has all the right conditions for investment to continue to arrive.

Finance Colombia: One thing you’ve mentioned that’s very important, and something Medellín is known for, is the collaboration between the private and public sectors. In many other places, without naming names, it’s an endless war. But in Medellín it has always felt like it’s everybody. That’s why Medellín has always had the Metro and continues to have major projects here, because the private sector has a strong sense of civic ownership. People talk about the GEA, but from a foreign perspective, what I’ve seen is that companies like Grupo Argos, SURA, Bancolombia, and more recently Nutresa, and many smaller ones that aren’t international names, have a sense of belonging and work hand in hand with the government. Speaking of that, for example, Mayor Federico Gutiérrez has traveled to the United States and other places to maintain those good relationships, despite what may be happening in Bogotá or at the Casa de Nariño. What is the importance of the efforts made by the metropolitan government and the city government of Medellín, not only at the ACI level, but also at the level of Alpujarra? How important is this in maintaining a long-term course so that foreign investors continue to see Medellín as a destination, no matter how much may be happening 400 kilometers away?

“We went from USD 150 million generated last year to more than USD 400 million this year… reflected in the creation of more than 11,500 formal, high-quality jobs.” — Cristina Zambrano Restrepo

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: I think what you’re pointing out is fundamental, and it’s specifically how we’ve achieved this model in Medellín. In a way, when we go out into the world and explain how we work hand in hand, as you said, there are cities and countries that react like, “Why do we need to sit at the same table? I’m very clear about my purpose, and you’re very clear about yours.” Here, the real history of what this city lived through 40 years ago made all of us sit at the same table, and we realized that the efforts of the three actors are always aligned toward the same goals. What always matters to us is citizens’ well-being, quality of life, economic and social development, many things. So when we were going through our hardest moments, we managed to set aside egos, agendas, and competing visions. We sat down, we talked, and we’ve continued to work under that model ever since.

As for what’s happening and what lies ahead in the future: clearly, having a political leader like Federico Gutiérrez, with those strategies and international connections, matters greatly. Countries trust leaders who have demonstrated stability and very clear commitments throughout their governing trajectory, and that’s what our mayor has done. Because of that, they continue to seek us out as a region and want to work with us as a region. As we were just discussing, the investment world is very accustomed to government cycles, more than people might think. They know how to manage political and public-sector issues and how to make bold bets at certain moments. We work on this, and together with the mayor we focus on those countries where we need them to keep believing in us and trusting us. The United States is Colombia’s partner par excellence, that is not going to change. It is the largest market in the world. So the mayor’s strategy of being very close to that government, of working with a binational chamber like AmCham Colombia, which always helps us continue attracting investment and fostering exchanges, is exactly how we work hand in hand.

Finance Colombia: Well, you’ve been very generous with your time. Just two more questions. One is that in the United States, we have a saying: “Nothing happens before the elections.” That big companies are always waiting to see what’s going to happen, what’s going to unfold. Is it the same here in Colombia? I know in Colombia, even more than in the U.S., there’s a law—well, speaking of public contracting, where nothing can really happen. But aside from that, not talking about selling food to a school or something like that—do investors or multinational companies see this as a challenge? Are they ready to sign contracts, or are they waiting to see what happens?

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: Of course, without a doubt it’s a challenge. And it’s not a minor one. It’s a challenge that forces us to work even harder to demonstrate, from the regional level, just how stable we can continue to be so that investment keeps coming. There are many companies that make their decisions regardless of the electoral period we’re in, largely because, as I mentioned, they know how to manage political risk. But there are certainly many others that are on pause, waiting to see what happens in the upcoming elections. So yes, in that sense, it does present significant challenges. Even so, we are still projecting USD 400 million for next year despite the elections, and we continue to work toward and commit to that goal. And regarding what you mentioned about contracting, specifically public-sector contracting; a city cannot come to a halt just because there is a law on guarantees, right? All of that is already anticipated. Contracts need to be signed and put in motion ahead of time. Everyone here knows how to operate during a six-month guarantees-law period, so everything has to keep moving and functioning.

Finance Colombia: The last question, I’ve known ACI, even from before I was living in Colombia. I’ve now been in Colombia for 12 years, and I’ve known Juan since I was living in Miami. They were always calling me, saying, “Look, come see what we have in Medellín. Come, let us show you something beautiful we have, or an investment opportunity here.” And that was truly a big part of why, when I was living in Bogotá, I decided to move to Medellín. It was exactly like that, maybe not as a major investor, but that attitude, that paisa pride.

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: Paisa pride, yes, I was just going to say.

Finance Colombia: Exactly, exactly. Like my wife, who’s paisa, when we’re abroad and someone asks her, “Are you Colombian?” she says, “I’m paisa.”

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: More than Colombian, I’m paisa.

Finance Colombia: What is the “secret hogao” of ACI Medellín? Because regardless of the government in power, regardless of what happens under your leadership, and even looking at the long term, what is the secret sauce behind the success ACI has had as an investment promotion agency? You have a strong global reputation in the FDI space, Foreign Direct Investment. You, as director, as someone who knows how the internal plumbing works, what is the key to the success ACI has achieved?

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: Well, I think without a doubt it’s our long-term planning. It’s a vision we have for the city, a vision for the territory—a clearly defined commitment. Every time we come in, there’s no need to reinvent things; we need to keep working on what already works. We have a technical team, and this is something I really want to highlight: this is a highly technical organization. While it does, of course, depend on electoral and government cycles, it has a well-trained staff that has been working in these areas for many years, and thanks to them we’ve been able to maintain the stability this institution has. So I would emphasize that, in addition to what you mentioned about paisa pride—which is an identity that characterizes all of us from Medellín. We truly like to see our city doing well; we fight for it, we defend it, we work for it. That paisa pride ensures that everyone who passes through this institution clearly understands the vision and works toward it, regardless of how long they remain here.

Finance Colombia: Yes, it’s true—you have a world-class team, so I know they make your job much easier. Thank you very much for your time; it’s always an honor to see you and to speak with you, and know you can always count on Finance Colombia for anything.

Cristina Zambrano Restrepo: Thank you as well, truly, for being here and for always supporting ACI Medellín. Indeed, you and Finance Colombia have been great partners for us in continuing to share and convey all the news that’s happening.

Finance Colombia: We will, thank you.

In an era of shifting global economic alliances, few countries find themselves more strategically positioned than Colombia. Caught between the massive state-backed investment initiatives of China and the established political and economic influence of the United States, Bogotá’s policy decisions have never held higher stakes for investors, the region, or especially, the country’s own citizens.

At the 2025 Colombia Gold Summit, Finance Colombia Executive Editor Loren Moss spoke with Daniel Giraldo, a Managing Director at FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN), a global business advisory firm specializing in cross-border investment and corporate finance. Giraldo offered his perspective on the geopolitical chessboard, examining what Colombia’s recent decision to join the Belt and Road Initiative means for its future relationship with its largest long-standing ally, the United States.

Finance Colombia: I’m here with Daniel Giraldo of FTI Consulting. So we’re here at the 2025 CGS, Colombia Gold Summit, where we also talk about other precious metals, we talk about silver, we also talk about metals like copper, molybdenum, things like that. You gave an interesting talk yesterday, I don’t want to steal your thunder. Why don’t you summarize your discussion?

Daniel Giraldo: Well, if I could summarize my lecture yesterday, I think there’s a chessboard, a giant global chessboard right now. And there are two main players: US and China. And Colombia is one key figure, a key part of this chessboard. Right now, Colombia is in a key position with lots of opportunities between Chinese investment and the US investment. However, which decisions Colombia takes right now will shift the entire game for the coming years.

Finance Colombia: So we are in the last few months of a government that has been relatively friendly or biased towards China. And hostile might be too strong of a word, but relatively cold towards the United States, talking about the Petro government. Colombia, under Petro, just signed up for the Belt and Road Initiative. What is the significance of that for Colombia, not just in its relationship with the United States, but what does that do or change for Colombia?

Daniel Giraldo: Well, what we are seeing right now is that Colombia signed formally the Belt and Road Initiative earlier this year. And there’s been a lot of tensions with the Trump government. At the same time, the US is the main investor in Colombia. And what we’re seeing is how China, through different initiatives, wants to have a bigger long-term influence in the region. And Colombia is, in a soft way, saying, “We want that for us.” However, that’s not a shift that can be made automatically. That’s not made in a single signature by one president. It takes years and years to forge a relationship. And although the government of Petro, President Petro is showing how they’re very interested in the Chinese investment, and to have a strong relationship with the Chinese government, it’s not the way, to just step out of their major alliances throughout years with the US

Finance Colombia: The way that investment is done in China is fundamentally different than the way investment is done from places like the US or Canada or many European countries. In the US, if you’re going to attract investment in Colombia, it’s going to be with some company. And that company is going to do what it wants to do within the law but not really giving a damn about what Washington says or what Washington wants or what Ottawa says or wants. Whereas in China, it’s very much a government-to-government thing. You have state-owned enterprises, and Xi Jinping or the Communist Party says, “we’re going to invest in this,” whether it’s profitable or not, for whatever kind of geopolitical reasons that they want to do things. So it’s a fundamentally different thing.

If you do a deal with a company in the US, you’re doing a deal with that company. Now, yes, you have to make sure that regulatory things go through. Trump is a little bit more of a patronage type of president where he wants to get involved with things so he can find benefit for himself or his administration. But generally speaking, even still, if we look at investors, if you’re going to bring in someone to invest in one of these mining companies here or exploration, it’s a company. In China, it’s going to be a state-backed company. Now, what does that imply, then, for the way business would be done going forward, number one? And number two, Petro’s on his way out, and maybe there will be another left-wing government to continue his project, it doesn’t look like it at this point. But do you see continuity in that affinity or that participation in the Belt and Road Initiative? Like you mentioned, it’s not a treaty, it’s more of like a memorandum of understanding, like the diplomats like to call it. But what do you foresee over the next two or three years?

Daniel Giraldo: Yeah, I believe every tactic has been launched in a very moderate way somehow. So, of course, Belt and Road is just a framework, and every project that could be contemplated by Chinese government, depending on the feasibility of each one of these projects. So they’re not basically getting married yet, they’re just dating.

They’re just on their first dates. However, we’re married to the US We’ve had a long-standing marriage, and what we are seeing right now is that how investment works for both countries is different. However, for both countries, there are more and more, basically, things they require to be approved.

So in order to achieve this, the US is not being indirect about it. They require trusted partners. They require trusted allies, which get what’s at stake right now. So, Petro’s government has one year left. We are expecting a shift. However, even if Colombia gets a left-wing government or a right-wing government, it doesn’t change the fact that investment in the latest years has been in a rough place.

So Colombia requires this investment, and the country requires a very stable policy framework, regulatory framework, legal framework, in order to get investors feeling safer, with more appeal. And, yes, of course, it’s not the same as an SOE (State Owned Enterprise) Chinese company that wants to invest, that needs the approval of Beijing and all this. In contrast, we have the US. Of course, Washington can say whatever they want. They can say Petro is now on the Clinton list, and they can sanction him personally. But a company, a US company, can still invest here; it changes how they see Colombia in the long run.

Finance Colombia: I think one of the things that is very notable is that the Trump government sanctioned Petro, his son, his wife, and his interior minister personally, rather than imposing sanctions on the country or doing, like, I don’t know, tariff things. Actually, by the time we publish the video, we might know what happens, but right before the Supreme Court right now, actually as we speak, there is a challenge to Trump’s ability to circumvent congressional law. And so if we have a trade pact, like free trade agreement or something like that, a lot of businesses in the US have challenged Trump’s ability to just… you can’t just cancel a law. Congress passed a law, and it’s in effect, and you can’t just cancel it. Well, that’s what they’re arguing. And all of these kind of unilateral, discretionary tariff moves that affect entire economies and entire industries, there’s some uncertainty that is going to be settled there.

“However, we’re married to the US We’ve had a long-standing marriage, and what we are seeing right now is that how investment works for both countries is different.” – Daniel Giraldo

But it’s interesting because it seems that with them sanctioning Petro and Benedetti directly as individuals, they’re saying that they want to maintain some predictability and constancy in the bilateral economic relationship with Colombia. And I think that there have been a lot of missions. Fico, the mayor here in Medellin, some of the other mayors and Colombian congressional people have visited Washington and met with senators and met with people in the State Department and said, “Look, you know, we disagree with what the president’s doing. Wait a few months.” And it seems like Washington has heard that and is not acting too rashly towards Colombia as a country but rather decided to take their ire out directly on the president and his consigliere Armando Benedetti.

Daniel Giraldo: What I believe of this is that Trump’s government can say like, “We’re not afraid. We are not afraid of imposing sanctions. We’re not afraid of not conducting business in the way we used to do it anymore.” And it’s been shown, for example, in the relationship with China, for example, with the Chinese government, with Xi Jinping. And there’s been like an escalation of tariffs, for example, I think up to 130%. I can’t remember the exact number. And then last week they say, “let’s stop this. Let’s trade the sequels.” And it’s also their way of showing the carrot and then showing the mace or bat, this metaphor.

Finance Colombia: Yeah, the stick.

Daniel Giraldo: And with Colombia, I believe it is the same. It’s like we could, if we wanted, to give some sanctions and they will have great consequences in terms of our bilateral trade. However, they’re aware of their position. They’re our main investor. We have a very good relationship in bilateral trade. There’s been years and there’s been decades of both countries benefiting from each other. We have a great position in one of the closest countries to enter South America. And they know this government is just ending. So why would they give us, like give the left-wing parties an opportunity to just bash them and say, “Oh, Trump’s government can’t be trusted.” Whereas if you take another position and say, “Look, this is personal, this is just these individuals, not the whole country.” You still have ground to negotiate, to renegotiate, to benefit. So I believe it is quite tactical.

Finance Colombia: Another thing that you mentioned is the difference on the ground. When you look at, for example, if we talk about the mining sector, not just on the ground, but literally in the ground, the US right now, the Trump administration, and really just the US more broadly, is very concerned about rare earths. And Colombia, even though there’s not yet a lot of mining activity, Colombia does have rare earth potential. There’s already been illegal coltan, cobalt ore mining taking place down in the Amazon, things like that. But it would seem that further damaging relationships with Colombia right now would contravene the political strategy in the US to strengthen its rare earth mineral supply chain.

Daniel Giraldo: Yes, it is completely true. The US has shown how important it is for them to be less dependent on the supply chains of the Chinese government, specifically in terms of their rare earths and critical minerals refining processes. So the US has been in recent weeks signing lots of memorandums of understanding and bilateral agreements with Australia, with Japan, with Malaysia, with Thailand. And they already have very good deals with Argentina, with the Mineral Security Partnership, for example, Mexico, Peru, Argentina. And the Dominican Republic. And Colombia could be in the radar as well. And what Colombia requires to be here and to benefit with the US as well is just to be patient, to get the best and the highest standards of ESG, and to reassure the different governments that it is safe to trade minerals with Colombia. That if they purchase Colombian minerals, they explore the region and they trade with us, they will find quality, they will find high standards of minerals, without assuming lots of risks that these markets don’t want to assess anymore.

Finance Colombia: So longer term, looking out three to five years, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the bilateral relationship between the US and Colombia?

Daniel Giraldo: I feel optimistic, not only because it’s the most comfortable answer, but I do feel optimistic because I believe there is a lot of potential. And right now, the sector is not in its best place. But I believe that sometimes you just have to grit your teeth, take the punch, and then stand up again and do everything that’s in your power to just become better. And Colombia has a history of learning, and the sector will learn as well how to be more competent, how to attract investors, and how to get to the highest standard and quality of their bilateral trade with different countries.

Finance Colombia: Great. Well, Daniel Giraldo from FTI Consulting, you guys are one of the leading strategic consulting firms globally, especially when you look at things like cross-border investment. That seems to be your strong suit, even though you guys are a large firm and you guys do a lot of different things. Always great to see your presence here at CGS, at Colombia Gold Summit. And thanks for your insights.

Daniel Giraldo: It’s a pleasure, thanks for having me.