Credit downgrade is an indictment of the Petro administration’s fiscal management, including suspension of the fiscal rule.

On April 8, 2026, S&P Global Ratings (NYSE: SPGI) lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Colombia to BB- from BB and its long-term local currency rating to BB from BB+. The outlook for both ratings is stable, reflecting expectations that the Government of Colombia will gradually reduce its fiscal deficit while sustaining moderate growth in the national gross domestic product.

The rating action follows persistent fiscal imbalances and a policy environment that has become less predictable since the pandemic-related recession. The government decision to suspend the national fiscal rule in 2025 marked a significant shift in the policy framework. Pro-cyclical fiscal policies have provided marginal support for employment and consumption, but have also contributed to higher inflation expectations and a wider current account deficit. S&P expects the general government fiscal deficit to reach 5.6% of the national gross domestic product in 2026, compared to 5.3% in 2025.

“We expect Colombia to have consistently large fiscal deficits over the next few years.” — S&P Global Ratings

Institutional stability remains a key factor in the rating, though challenges persist. A fragmented legislature followed the March 2026 elections, where Pacto Histórico and Centro Democrático emerged with the largest minorities. The upcoming presidential election, scheduled for May 31, 2026, adds further uncertainty. Candidates such as Iván Cepeda of Pacto Histórico, Paloma Valencia, and Abelardo de la Espriella have proposed varying approaches to fiscal consolidation. The new administration will inherit spending pressures related to domestic security, rising healthcare costs, and pension payments linked to minimum wage increases.

The Banco de la República, the independent central bank of the country, has maintained a tight monetary policy to combat inflationary pressures. Annual inflation reached 5.3% in February 2026, prompting the bank to increase reference rates to 11.25%. S&P anticipates that inflation will not return to the target range of 3% +/- 1% until early 2029. While the independent status of the central bank provides a buffer against external shocks, high interest rates and lower-than-expected revenue collections have contributed to the widening deficit since 2024.

Economic growth is projected at 2.5% for 2026, slightly below the 2.6% recorded in 2025. Per capita growth is estimated at $9,900 USD for 2026, with real growth expected to average just above 2% through 2029. Despite being a net energy exporter, the performance of the US economy and international energy prices continue to influence national outcomes. Hydrocarbon exports declined to 35% of goods exports in 2025, down from 67% in 2013, showing some diversification even as the sector remains a primary source of volatility.

Net general government debt is forecast to approach 66% of the national gross domestic product by 2029, rising from 60.4% in 2025. S&P notes that the government interest burden will average 12.3% of general government revenue over the next three years. The shift toward issuing shorter-term debt instruments has reduced reported interest payments but increased vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations. External indicators remain a concern, with narrow net external debt expected to stabilize at 130% of current account receipts through 2029. Foreign direct investment is expected to be the primary source for funding the current account deficit, which is projected to stabilize around 2.6% of the national gross domestic product.

Vise photo credit © Loren Moss

Stronger peso and oil prices shift Colombian investment landscape.

The Colombian peso (COP) experienced a 2.1% appreciation during March 2026, driven by a recovery in global oil prices and key domestic developments. According to the latest analysis from Bancolombia (BVC: BCOLOMBIA / NYSE: CIB), the performance of the currency coincided with the results of national legislative elections and recent monetary policy adjustments by the Banco de la República.

Global energy markets recorded a significant increase in crude prices throughout the month. Brent crude rose 63% to end March at $118 USD per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 51% to close at $101 USD per barrel. These price movements have been largely attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to influence international commodity flows and investor sentiment.

On the domestic front, the Gran Coalición por Colombia primary election recorded a turnout of more than 5 million voters. Market analysts indicated that the high participation rate was viewed as a positive indicator of institutional stability. Simultaneously, the Board of Directors of the Banco de la República increased the national policy interest rate by 100 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 11.25%. This decision aligns with regional efforts to manage inflationary pressures through tighter monetary control.

International market conditions also reflect a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East and persistent economic indicators, markets currently anticipate that the US central bank will maintain existing interest rates without cuts for the remainder of the year.

Looking forward to April, the research team at Bancolombia—led by Chief Economist Laura Clavijo, Macroeconomic Manager Jose Luis Mojica, and International and FX Analyst Maria Paula Gonzalez—projects that the exchange rate will trade within a range of $3,625 COP to $3,725 COP. This forecast accounts for continued volatility and heightened uncertainty in both global and domestic financial markets.

Bancolombia (photo © Loren Moss)

Berlin has historically reported indications of Rare Earth Elements, Vanadium, Phosphate and Uranium — Positioned as Potential Non-Chinese Critical Minerals Project in the Western Hemisphere

TORONTO — Jaguar Uranium Corp. (NYSE American: JAGU) has commenced an initial rare earth element assessment program at its flagship Berlin Project in Caldas, Colombia. The site is a polymetallic sedimentary deposit containing uranium mineralization alongside associated rare earth elements (REE) and battery-related commodities such as vanadium, phosphate, nickel, molybdenum, rhenium, and yttrium.

The company plans to utilize approximately 20,000 meters of preserved historic drill core for selective re-sampling and assaying. This approach is intended to advance early-stage REE characterization without the immediate requirement for new drilling. The program represents the first dedicated effort by the company to evaluate the rare earth potential of the 9,053-hectare concession area.

“The results could be a step-change in how this project is understood and technically evaluated.” — Steven Gold, Chief Executive Officer, Jaguar Uranium Corp.

“We are now attempting to advance the recognition that Berlin could represent a relevant non-China based critical mineral deposits in the western hemisphere and specifically in Latin America,” stated Steven Gold, Chief Executive Officer of Jaguar Uranium Corp. “We believe the results could be a step-change in how this project is understood and technically evaluated.”

The strategic shift toward REE evaluation follows a period of increased global policy attention regarding critical mineral supply chains. Materials required for defense systems, electric vehicles, and clean energy infrastructure have become a priority for Western governments seeking to diversify away from Chinese-dominated markets. Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), has indicated that the US and the European Union are working to foster independent markets for these materials.

The Berlin Project deposit is situated within a layered sedimentary sequence of phosphate-bearing limestone. The company is employing a three-phase approach for its assessment: core logging and systematic re-sampling, multi-element geological modeling, and an evaluation of by-product economics. This modeling will integrate REE assay data with existing datasets for uranium, vanadium, and phosphate to establish a technical foundation for future resource estimates.

Infrastructure at the site includes proximity to a hydroelectric power source 12 kilometers away and access to a river port approximately 65 kilometers from the project, providing a logistical route to the Caribbean coast. The company, which completed a $25 million USD initial public offering on the NYSE American (NYSE American: JAGU) in February 2026, is also managing the Laguna Salada Project in the Argentine province of Chubut and the Huemul mine in Mendoza.

Technical information regarding the program was approved by Owen D. W. Miller, a qualified person as defined by NI 43-101. The company noted that the Berlin Project remains in the exploration stage and does not currently host mineral resources or reserves as defined under SEC Regulation S-K 1300.

Above photo: Col. John P. Kunstbeck scans uranium ore for alpha and beta radiation signatures outside of a uranium mill. (Photo Credit: U.S. Army photo by Maj. Mark S. Quint)