Refining margin surge cushions revenue drop amid leadership void

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC, BVC: ECOPETROL) reported first-quarter 2026 consolidated revenues of 28.6 trillion COP, a decline of 8.7% from 31.4 trillion COP in the year-earlier period, as lower crude oil prices and reduced hydrocarbon production compressed the top line for Colombia’s state-controlled oil and gas company. Against that backdrop, a marked recovery in refining margins and disciplined cost management lifted EBITDA by 1.5% to 13.5 trillion COP, yielding a 47% EBITDA margin and partially offsetting the revenue headwind. At the Q1 2026 average exchange rate of approximately 3,700 COP per USD, the quarter’s revenues translate to roughly $7.73 billion USD and EBITDA to approximately $3.65 billion USD.

Embattled Ecopetrol CEO Ricardo Roa was appointed to the position by Colombian President Gustavo Petro after managing his political campaign. (photo: Ecopetrol)

Net income for the quarter reached 2.9 trillion COP (approximately $784 million USD), down 7.7% year-over-year, reflecting the combined drag of lower revenues, a sharply elevated effective tax rate of 37.1%, and a one-time charge of 1.2 trillion COP for the impuesto al patrimonio — Colombia’s government-mandated wealth levy on large corporations established to fund post-disaster reconstruction measures. The company is also subject to a 10% income tax surcharge applicable for fiscal year 2026, which is embedded in the reported effective rate. The aggregate tax burden absorbed a disproportionate share of operating improvement relative to prior periods, limiting the flow-through of refining gains to the net income line.

Total hydrocarbon production averaged 725.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboed) in Q1 2026, below the 745 kboed recorded in the 2025 annual average cited by management during the March 2026 general shareholders’ meeting. Domestic crude output represented the largest component at approximately 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd). Ecopetrol’s Permian Basin operations in the United States contributed 91.8 kbd, underscoring the continued strategic importance of the international segment. Gas production continued a multi-year declining trend that poses a medium-term domestic supply challenge; management has sought to address this partially through regasification capacity additions at Puerto Bahía and on the Pacific coast, expected to come online in the second half of 2026 with a combined contribution of up to 430 billion BTU per day.

The refining segment delivered the quarter’s most pronounced operational outperformance. Ecopetrol’s domestic refineries, led by Refinería de Cartagena, processed 417.5 kbd of crude throughput. The integrated refining margin rose to $17.3 USD per barrel, a 60% improvement over the same quarter of 2025, driven by favorable differential pricing between domestic crude benchmarks and refined product values alongside ongoing operational efficiency improvements. The Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas (CREG) and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía remain central to the regulatory framework governing downstream margins over the medium term.

The balance sheet carries significant structural and contingent risk items of direct relevance to institutional credit and equity holders. Gross debt stood at 108.1 trillion COP (approximately $29.2 billion USD), representing a leverage ratio of 2.3 times trailing EBITDA — a level that leaves limited room for further deterioration before debt covenants or rating agency thresholds become binding. Ecopetrol holds a receivable of 4.2 trillion COP (approximately $1.14 billion USD) from the Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles (FEPC), a government fuel price stabilization mechanism that represents a claim on the Colombian treasury with timing and recovery risk. A dispute with the Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales (DIAN) over value-added tax assessments totals 12.26 trillion COP (approximately $3.31 billion USD) in aggregate, of which 10.22 trillion COP relates to Ecopetrol’s consolidated operations and 2.04 trillion COP to Refinería de Cartagena. Both cases are under administrative and judicial review; no provisions have been recognized in the financial statements pending resolution, but the potential liability represents a material contingency relative to the company’s quarterly net income.

On the corporate development front, Ecopetrol disclosed three significant transactions during or following the quarter. The company agreed to acquire producing assets from Gran Tierra Energy (NYSE: GTE, TSX: GTE) for $92.4 million USD, adding Colombian upstream production inventory in basins where both companies have operated. In Brazil, Ecopetrol launched a tender offer for shares of Brava Energia (BVMF: BRAV3) at 23 BRL per share, seeking to expand its footprint in that country’s oil and gas sector. And in a transaction that would reshape the mid-size independent landscape in Colombia, the company reached an agreement to acquire Parex Resources (TSX: PXT) for $250 million USD; Parex is a Colombia-focused producer with a complementary asset base across the Llanos and other producing basins. Collectively, the three transactions signal that Ecopetrol’s capital allocation strategy under the current government continues to favor upstream consolidation despite the elevated leverage profile.

The exploration portfolio generated positive news announcements. The Copoazú-1 exploratory well, drilled in Colombia’s Llanos foothills region, was confirmed as a commercial discovery, adding to the domestic reserve base. The Sirius offshore project advanced through the Consulta Previa process — a legally mandated prior consultation with indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities required before development of projects in or near their territories — reaching a milestone in community engagement that brings the project closer to formal development sanction. The Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH) oversees the licensing framework within which both projects operate.

“Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” — Martín Ravelo, President, Unión Sindical Obrera (USO)

The ISA transmission segment, managed through Ecopetrol’s majority stake in ISA — Interconexión Eléctrica S.A., contributed stable regulated cash flows during the quarter. ISA completed 46 transmission reinforcement works across its Latin American concession portfolio. The segment also completed the acquisition of 100% of IE Madeira in Brazil, consolidating its position in that country’s power grid interconnection infrastructure. ISA further submitted a competitive bid for the Río Bueno–Puerto Montt high-voltage transmission line concession in Chile, demonstrating the group’s appetite for long-duration, inflation-linked infrastructure assets across the Andes region. For institutional investors evaluating Ecopetrol as a blended hydrocarbons-and-infrastructure holding, ISA’s consistent cash generation provides partial diversification from crude price volatility, though it does not insulate the consolidated entity from headline governance risk.

The most consequential variable for the investment thesis over the near term is Ecopetrol’s prolonged governance crisis. At the company’s general shareholders’ meeting on March 27, 2026, held at the Corferias convention center in Bogotá, minority shareholders loudly heckled president Ricardo Roa — with audible shouts of “¡Fuera, fuera!” reverberating through the hall — as debate over his leadership erupted into open confrontation. The meeting approved a dividend of 121 COP per share for minority holders and a 4 trillion COP distribution to the Colombian government as majority shareholder, payable in two installments by June 30, 2026. Despite the financial business conducted, governance overshadowed the proceedings.

Roa faces two separate judicial proceedings. The Fiscalía General de la Nación formally charged him in connection with alleged influence peddling related to the purchase of an apartment in northern Bogotá — charges he has denied. Separately, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) is examining whether campaign spending limits were violated during President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign, which Roa managed — an investigation that Finance Colombia has covered in detail. Angela Maria Robledo, Chair of the Board of Directors, defended the board’s decision to retain Roa at the March assembly, citing the constitutional presumption of innocence. However, four of the nine board members had already formally recorded their support for his removal at that point, exposing a divided governance structure at a time when strategic and operational decisions require unified leadership.

The Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), which represents approximately one-third of Ecopetrol’s workforce, issued a production strike ultimatum timed to a March 30 board meeting. Martín Ravelo, president of the USO, framed the leadership crisis explicitly in terms of US regulatory risk: “Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” Ravelo further warned that the company’s outstanding international debt — which he placed at approximately $30 billion USD and which is exacerbated by elevated interest rates — left Ecopetrol exposed to potential covenant triggers or early repayment demands in a scenario where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Office of Foreign Assets Control were to take enforcement action.

Following sustained pressure from the USO, minority shareholders, and opposition political figures, Ecopetrol’s board approved an extended leave of absence for Roa beginning April 7, 2026. Under the arrangement, Roa used accrued vacation through May 27, followed by 30 calendar days of unpaid leave beginning May 28, extending his absence through the end of June — a period encompassing Colombia’s presidential first round on May 31 and a potential runoff on June 21. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra, the company’s executive vice president of hydrocarbons and designated first alternate to the presidency since November 2025, was appointed acting president. Hurtado Parra holds an MBA in International Oil and Gas and brings more than 28 years of energy sector experience to the acting role, having previously served as vice president of exploration, development, and production.

The political calendar creates a structural transition risk that sits above the operational and financial results as the primary concern for long-duration investors. Colombia’s incoming government, to be inaugurated August 7, 2026, is widely expected to appoint a new Ecopetrol board and select a new company president. That transition may bring material shifts in strategic priorities — including the pace of upstream investment, the approach to the FEPC receivable recovery, the trajectory of energy transition spending, and the capital allocation balance between the hydrocarbons segment and the ISA infrastructure platform. The Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía will both play key roles in establishing the post-election policy framework under which Ecopetrol operates. Institutional investors holding exposure to Ecopetrol via NYSE: EC or BVC: ECOPETROL must weigh Q1’s genuine operational improvement — most visibly in refining margins and EBITDA stability — against a governance and policy transition risk profile that is unlikely to be resolved before the August handover.

Ecopetrol’s Cartagena refinery (photo courtesy Ecopetrol)

For thousands of Colombians planning their long-awaited European summer escape, the season of sun-drenched piazzas, Mediterranean beaches and packed airport terminals may come with unexpected advice: think local.

From Madrid and Paris to Rome and Athens, the 2026 summer travel season is approaching under the shadow of a mounting aviation crisis linked to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes. Since late February, when the United States and Israel escalated military operations against Iran, the region has become the epicenter of a global energy shock, sending jet fuel prices soaring and forcing airlines across Europe to begin trimming routes.

For travelers departing from Colombia — many of them booking multi-city holidays months in advance — the message is becoming increasingly clear: flexibility may be as important as a valid passport.

The warning signs began in mid-April, when the head of the International Energy Agency cautioned that Europe had “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left” if supply routes from the Gulf remained blocked. Kerosene, the refined petroleum product that powers most commercial aircraft, depends heavily on imports and refining chains linked to the Middle East. With shipping through Hormuz effectively frozen, that supply chain is under extraordinary pressure.

Although major airlines have sought to reassure passengers that immediate shortages are not yet critical, the economics are already biting. Jet fuel prices have reportedly doubled since the start of the crisis, squeezing carriers already operating on tight summer margins.

Low-cost airline Transavia became the latest carrier to announce flight cancellations for May and June, following similar moves by Ryanair, easyJet, Vueling and Volotea. The airlines cited the prohibitive cost of fuel and difficulties securing kerosene imports from Gulf suppliers.

On Thursday, more than 1,200 flights were cancelled, impacting travelers in Spain, England, France and Portugal. Barcelona and Amsterdam emerged as the airports most affected by delays.

For Colombian travelers, the risk is not necessarily that transatlantic flights from Bogotá to Europe will vanish overnight, but that onward connections within Europe — often booked separately on budget carriers — could be the first casualties.

A direct flight to Madrid may still depart on time, but the low-cost connection to Naples, Santorini or Dubrovnik could disappear after takeoff.

That creates a financial domino effect. Missed hotel reservations, prepaid train tickets, cruise departures and internal tours can quickly transform a dream holiday into an expensive logistical nightmare.

The Airports Council International Europe has warned that regional airports face an “existential threat” if airlines continue cutting capacity. Smaller airports, from Orly to Girona, and secondary tourist destinations are especially vulnerable because passengers on those routes tend to be more price-sensitive and airlines can pull service faster.

Even Germany’s flagship carrier Lufthansa recently cut 20,000 summer flights through its regional subsidiary CityLine, signaling that the strain is reaching far beyond the low-cost market.

Then there is the second concern unsettling travelers this season: public health alerts surrounding cases of Hantavirus contagion following the confirmed outbreak onboard the luxury cruise ship MV Hondius. A total of 146 people from 23 different countries remain aboard the vessel under “strict precautionary measures,” operator Oceanwide Expeditions said Thursday.

Though far less likely to disrupt flights than the fuel crisis, the outbreak has added another layer of anxiety for travelers heading to popular beach resorts, countryside retreats and nature-heavy itineraries across Europe. Health officials are urging tourists to remain cautious in cabins, campsites and rural accommodations where rodent exposure can increase infection risks.

For most travelers, the risk remains manageable with basic precautions, but it reinforces the same lesson of the COVID19 pandemic: preparation matters, so be ready for extra biosecurity screenings on arrival or to fly the 10-hour red-eye with a facemask.

Travel advisors are now recommending Colombians heading abroad this summer avoid rigid itineraries and consider refundable bookings wherever possible. Booking flights and connections under a single airline alliance can also offer stronger passenger protections than stitching together separate low-cost tickets.

Travel insurance, often treated as an afterthought, may become the smartest purchase of the trip.

Passengers should also monitor airline notices closely, especially if flying with budget carriers operating regional European routes. Some cancellations may come with limited notice, and rebooking options during peak summer weeks can be both scarce and expensive.

Industry analysts say much depends on diplomacy. If negotiations between Washington and Tehran resume and maritime traffic through Hormuz partially reopens, the worst-case scenario may be avoided. But if the blockade persists into June, Europe could face a genuine aviation squeeze just as millions of tourists arrive for the high season.

For Colombians dreaming of Paris cafés, Greek islands or the Amalfi Coast, Europe remains open — but no longer predictable.

This summer, the best souvenir may not be a photograph from the Mediterranean, but the peace of mind that comes from having a Plan B.

Frontera must pay a $25 million USD breakup fee to Geopark.

Frontera Energy Corporation (TSX: FEC) has entered into a definitive arrangement agreement to divest its Colombian upstream exploration and production (E&P) portfolio to Parex Resources Inc. (TSX: PXT) for a total firm value of approximately $750 million USD. The transaction follows the termination of a previous agreement with GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK). Frontera opted for the Parex proposal after the Calgary-based independent producer offered $525 million USD in equity consideration, a $125 million USD increase over the prior GeoPark bid. As part of the transition, Frontera has paid a $25 million USD breakup fee to GeoPark.

The $525 million USD equity consideration includes an immediate $500 million USD cash payment upon closing and a $25 million USD contingent payment. The latter is dependent on the execution of a contractual amendment or binding agreement to extend the term of the Quifa Association Contract within 12 months.

Beyond the cash equity, Parex will assume $390 million USD in existing Frontera liabilities. This includes $310 million USD in 2028 Senior Unsecured Notes and an $80 million USD prepayment facility with Chevron Products Company, a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX).

Following the close of the deal, Frontera intends to distribute approximately $470 million USD to its shareholders, which equates to roughly $9.18 CAD per share based on current exchange rates and outstanding share counts. This distribution is subject to shareholder approval and the successful completion of the transaction.

Frontera is retaining its exploration interests in Guyana.

Shift to Infrastructure Focus

Upon completion, Frontera will pivot its corporate strategy to focus exclusively on energy infrastructure. Its remaining portfolio will be anchored by two primary Colombian assets:

• A 35% equity interest in Oleoducto de los Llanos Orientales S.A. (ODL), a critical crude oil pipeline.
• A 99.97% equity interest in Sociedad Portuaria Puerto Bahía, a multipurpose port facility in Cartagena.

The company will also retain its exploration interests in Guyana. Frontera’s infrastructure division generated approximately $77 million USD in distributable cash flow in 2025. Post-transaction, Frontera expects to maintain $50 million USD in cash reserves to fund growth projects, including a potential Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) regasification project in partnership with Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC; BVC: ECOPETROL).

Orlando Cabrales, CEO of Frontera, noted that Parex is currently the largest independent operator in Colombia and a pre-existing partner in the VIM-1 block, which suggests operational continuity for the assets and employees involved.

The independent members of Frontera’s Board of Directors have unanimously recommended the deal. Major shareholders The Catalyst Capital Group Inc. and Gramercy Funds Management LLC, who collectively hold approximately 53% of Frontera’s outstanding shares, have signed support agreements to vote in favor of the arrangement.

Timeline and Approvals

The transaction is structured as a plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act of British Columbia. It requires the approval of at least two-thirds of the votes cast by Frontera shareholders at a forthcoming special meeting.

The deal is also subject to approval by the Supreme Court of British Columbia and relevant regulatory bodies in both Canada and Colombia. Parex will fund the acquisition through existing cash, credit facilities, and an underwritten financing commitment from Scotiabank (TSX: BNS; NYSE: BNS). Closing is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026.

Citi (NYSE: C) served as the financial advisor to Frontera, while BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. provided a fairness opinion. Legal counsel was provided by Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP and McMillan LLP.

Above photo: Frontera Energy’s Quifa field Meta Colombia. Photo credit: Frontera Energy.