Colombia and Ecuador have started exchanging trade retaliations after Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa announced a 30% “security” tariff on imports from Colombia, escalating tensions between Andean neighbours over border security cooperation.

Noboa said the measure would take effect on Feb. 1 and would remain in place until Colombia shows “real commitment” to jointly tackle drug trafficking and illegal mining along the shared frontier. He made the announcement from Davos, where he is attending the World Economic Forum.

“We have made real efforts of cooperation with Colombia… but while we have insisted on dialogue, our military continues facing criminal groups tied to drug trafficking on the border without any cooperation,” Noboa said in a post on X, citing an annual trade deficit of more than $1 billion.

Colombia’s foreign ministry rejected the tariff in a formal protest note, calling it a unilateral decision that violates Andean Community (CAN) rules, and proposed a ministerial meeting involving foreign affairs, defence, trade and energy officials on Jan. 25 in Ipiales, Colombia’s southern border city.

The government of President Gustavo Petro also announced a 30% tariff on 20 products imported from Ecuador in response, though it has not specified the items. Diana Marcela Morales, Colombia’s Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (MinCIT) said Ecuador’s exports covered by the retaliatory measure total some $250 million, and described the policy as “temporary” and “revisable.”

Fedexpor, Ecuador’s exporters federation, said non-oil exports to Colombia rose 4% between January and November 2025, and that the Colombian market receives more than 1,130 Ecuadorian export products. The top exports include wood boards, vegetable oils and fats, canned tuna, minerals and metals, and processed food products.

The dispute has also spread into the energy sector. Colombia’s Ministry of Mines and Energy said on Thursday it had suspended international electricity transactions with Ecuador, citing climate-related pressure on domestic supply and the need to prioritise national demand amid concerns over a possible new El Niño weather cycle.

Ecuador has struggled with severe droughts in recent years, triggering long power cuts in 2024 and 2025 in a country where roughly 70% of electricity generation depends on hydropower, while Colombia has supplied electricity during periods of shortage.

President Petro noted that Colombia acted in solidarity during Ecuador’s worst drought in 60 years. “I hope Ecuador has appreciated that when we were needed, we responded with energy,” Petro said on Wednesday.

Following Colombia’s electricity suspension, Ecuador announced new tariffs on transporting Colombian crude through its heavy crude pipeline system. Environment and Energy Minister Inés Manzano said the oil transport fee through the OCP pipeline would reflect “reciprocity,” without giving details.

Colombia and Ecuador share a 600-kilometre border stretching from the Pacific coast to the Amazon, where Colombian armed groups and criminal networks operate, including organisations involved in drug trafficking, arms smuggling and illegal mining. Relations between Petro and Noboa, who sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum, have frequently been strained.

The Bogotá mayoralty has declared the tender process for the construction of the capital’s second metro line void after no bids were submitted by the deadline, Mayor Carlos Fernando Galán said on Tuesday, highlighting ongoing challenges facing Colombia’s most ambitious infrastructure project.

Galán said none of the prequalified consortia presented final offers before the cutoff time on Jan. 20, forcing the city to restart the process. He stressed, however, that the decision does not jeopardize the continuation of the project, which is expected to be re-tendered through a new international bidding process beginning in February. “We must inform the public that no proposals were received from the consortia that were prequalified to submit offers,” Galán told a press conference. “This does not mean that Metro Line 2 will not go ahead. Metro Line 2 continues.”

Bogotá’s second metro line, a 15.5-kilometre underground system designed to connect the city’s northern and western districts with the centre, is a key component of efforts to modernize public transport in a city of more than 8 million residents.

The project is expected to include 11 stations, most of them underground, and carry up to 50,000 passengers per hour in each direction.

The Mayor said the new tender would benefit from a more mature technical and financial structure, as well as continued backing from multilateral lenders and Colombia’s national government through existing co-financing agreements. Authorities aim to award the contract in the first quarter of 2027.

The failed bidding process follows a lengthy prequalification phase that began under the previous city administration led by former mayor Claudia López. Four consortia were initially prequalified in August 2023, after which the project moved into the public tender stage in September of that year.

According to Galán, two of those groups were excluded in October 2024 due to conflicts of interest raised by competing bidders. That reduced the field to two consortia, one Chinese and one Spanish.

In October 2025, the Chinese-led consortium withdrew from the process, citing concerns over Colombia’s exchange rate volatility and associated financial risks. This left the Spanish consortium as the sole remaining bidder. That group later requested an extension to the submission deadline, which city authorities declined to grant.

Galán said the Spanish consortium ultimately failed to submit a proposal after one of its key partners, infrastructure firm Acciona, withdrew from the group, rendering the bid unviable. The formal notification of withdrawal was filed on the same day the tender closed.

The City claims to have taken steps to encourage competition, including issuing addenda and extending deadlines, but were ultimately unable to secure a binding offer.

The announcement comes as construction of Bogotá’s first metro line – an elevated system being built by the Chinese consortium China Harbour Engineering Company Limited (CHEC) – has reached approximately 70% completion, according to the mayoralty. Line 1 is scheduled to begin operations in 2028 and is seen as a test case for future rail projects in the capital.

Metro Line 2 is expected to cost approximately 34.9 trillion Colombian pesos (USD$8.9 billion) and will be fully automated, according to the Bogotá Metro Company. The line will operate 25 trains, each measuring 140 metres in length, and is projected to add around 800,000 daily trips to the city’s public transport network once operational.

Leonidas Narváez, general manager of the Enpresa Metro de Bogotá (EMB) said the city would launch an expanded global outreach campaign to attract new bidders when the tender reopens. “We will carry out a broad international invitation to firms around the world so that they can once again participate,” Narváez said.

Political reactions to the failed tender were swift. Daniel Briceño, a former city councillor from the  Centro Democrático party, and Senatorial candidate, blamed the López administration for what he described as structural flaws in the project’s design. “This process was left poorly prepared and with serious errors,” Briceño said in a statement.

City councillor Juan David Quintero, meanwhile, attributed the lack of bids in part to global geopolitical tensions, pointing to the trade disputes between the United States and China as a factor influencing risk perceptions among major infrastructure firms.

Galán rejected claims that the project was at risk, saying the revised timeline preserves the city’s broader metro expansion plans. Under the new schedule, authorities expect to receive bids in September 2026, following additional technical and financial adjustments. “We have secured financing, multilateral support and a valid co-financing agreement,” he said. “The project remains on track.”

Bogotá officials said the restart of the tender process was intended to provide greater certainty to potential bidders while safeguarding public resources and long-term project viability.

Fracttal, a Madrid based company providing AI-powered maintenance and asset management software, announced on Wednesday that it has raised $35 million USD in a growth funding round led by American private equity firm Riverwood Capital. 

The round included participation from all existing investors, and reinforces Fracttal’s position as a global benchmark in maintenance, while enabling the company to reach more markets and customers who can benefit from managing their physical assets, tasks and operations from one unified platform. 

“It means a lot to us that all of our current investors, especially Seaya Ventures alongside Kayyak, GoHub, and Amador, are doubling down. It’s a strong signal. They’ve seen the product mature, the technology scale, and the impact we’re having with customers, and they’re choosing to continue backing us in this next phase,” said Christian Struve, CEO and co-founder of the startup. 

“Maintenance is one of the largest and most mission-critical functions across industrial and infrastructure sectors, yet it has historically been underserved by modern software. Fracttal has developed a world-class, AI-driven platform with the technological depth needed to transform how organizations manage complex, distributed assets,” Francisco Alvarez-Demalde, Riverwood Capital co-founder and managing partner, explained. 

Through the funds, Fracttal will accelerate its growth across Latin American and European markets, including Mexico, Brazil, Spain and France – where it has already seen strong product-market fit, marquee customers and growing demand from mid-market and enterprise clients seeking predictive maintenance. 

In a 2025 study, the company found that only 2% of firms in Spanish-speaking countries had implemented AI in its maintenance operations, although 64% planned to or were already running pilot programs. 

Regardless of the sector’s critical needs, the startup will still face challenges when it comes to their expansion: 34% of survey respondents said the main barrier in maintenance adoption is lack of specialized technical skills within companies; 29% noted resistance to change from organizations or staff; 27% said high initial investment costs; and 11% warned of distrust in AI results. 

To address these hardships, Fracttal will allocate a significant portion of the recent investment to product development, with a strong focus on enhanced AI and agentic capabilities, IoT sensor technologies, and advanced vertical functionalities. The company will also scale its teams across engineering, data science, product, sales, marketing and customer success, while strengthening its internal structure to scale sustainably. 

In parallel, Fracttal will actively pursue inorganic growth opportunities, including strategic acquisitions and partnerships, to accelerate market expansion, deepen product capabilities, and consolidate its leadership in key regions.

“Having Riverwood Capital as a partner marks a turning point for us. They know how to scale technology companies globally, how to build durable businesses, and how to support founders who aim to transform entire industries,” Struve added.

“Their support comes at the perfect time for our global ambitions, strengthening our leadership in Latin America and accelerating our expansion in Europe, a region where we see a massive opportunity to deploy our AI-driven vision for the future of maintenance.”

The global predictive maintenance market was valued at $14.31 billion USD in 2025, and experts project it will reach as much as $116.23 billion by 2032 – and $205 billion by 2035. 

Such a growth rate (30.5% compounded annual growth rate) is explained by the ever-pressing need for reducing inactive time and maintenance costs across industries. Predictive maintenance, in fact, estimates the best time to complete tasks, which optimizes the cost of processes and prevents time loss, according to consulting firm Research Nester. 

Fracttal was founded to democratize critical intelligence maintenance technologies. “Too many companies were still managing their assets with spreadsheets and outdated systems, wasting time and money,” Stuve told Contxto last year.  

“Today, artificial intelligence and the proliferation of industrial sensors are opening possibilities that were unthinkable just a decade ago. We can now understand the condition of an asset before it fails, learn from every operation and empower maintenance teams to make faster, better decisions,” the executive said. 

“That is the future we build every day at Fracttal thanks to our platform and our commitment to true Maintenance Intelligence.” 

The company’s Fracttal One AI-powered solution centralizes all maintenance operations through open integrations with any enterprise system and third-party IoT sensors, as well as its proprietary portfolio of IoT hardware. Meanwhile, Fracttal Sense enables organizations to operate with greater efficiency, safety and sustainability. 

Featured image: Christian Struve courtesy of Fracttal.

This article originally appeared on Latin America Reports, and was republished with permission.

Disclosure: This article mentions clients of an Espacio portfolio company.

The post Spain-based startup closes $35M growth round for Latin America expansion  appeared first on The Bogotá Post.

A federal jury in the United States has awarded coal producer Drummond Company Inc. $256 million after finding that a prominent human-rights attorney and his associates orchestrated a campaign of false accusations linking the company to paramilitary violence in Colombia.

The verdict, delivered on January 15 in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama, marks one of the largest legal victories Drummond has secured in its long-running effort to counter claims alleging ties to illegal armed groups during Colombia’s internal conflict.

Jurors ruled unanimously that Washington-based attorney Terrence P. Collingsworth and his organization, International Rights Advocates (IRAdvocates), knowingly made false and defamatory statements accusing Drummond of financing paramilitary organizations operating in Colombia. The panel also found that Collingsworth and IRAdvocates violated the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO), determining they engaged in a coordinated scheme involving extortion, bribery of witnesses, witness tampering, wire fraud, money laundering, obstruction of justice and conspiracy.

According to court filings and testimony presented at trial, the defendants allegedly used fabricated narratives and paid testimony to pressure Drummond through lawsuits and media campaigns in the United States, Colombia and Europe. Jurors concluded there was “clear and convincing evidence” that Collingsworth either knew his claims were false or acted with reckless disregard for the truth.

Drummond had brought two lawsuits against Collingsworth and his network: one alleging defamation and another invoking the federal RICO statute. The jury awarded $52 million in damages for defamation and $68 million under the RICO claims. Under U.S. law, RICO damages are automatically tripled, bringing the total award to $256 million.

The case centered heavily on payments made to Colombian witnesses who had testified in earlier lawsuits accusing Drummond of supporting right-wing paramilitary groups. Evidence showed that more than $400,000 had been paid to individuals including Jaime Blanco Maya and Jairo de Jesús Charris, also known as “El Viejo Miguel,” without disclosure to courts.

The jury further found that other alleged co-conspirators were involved in the broader scheme, including Colombian attorney Iván Alfredo Otero Mendoza and Dutch businessman Albert van Bilderbeek, both of whom were also held liable under RICO.

Drummond’s lead trial counsel, Trey Wells of Starnes Davis Florie LLP, said the verdict vindicated the company after decades of reputational damage. “This verdict is further proof that Drummond has never had any ties whatsoever to illegal armed groups,” Wells said in a statement. “For years the company endured malicious accusations and false narratives that have now been categorically rejected by an American jury.”

Drummond has operated in Colombia since the late 1980s and is one of the largest exporters of Colombian coal. The company has faced multiple lawsuits over the past two decades in U.S. courts alleging it supported paramilitary groups blamed for killings near its mining operations — claims Drummond has consistently denied. The Company said the ruling exposesd a coordinated effort to damage Drummond’s reputation and extract financial settlements through legal pressure based on false testimony. “The case documents demonstrate a deliberate strategy to harm Drummond commercially and reputationally through fabricated allegations,” the company noted.

Drummond reiterated its commitment to ethical operations in Colombia, stressing that it has complied with national laws since beginning activities in the country and maintains strict corporate governance standards.

The verdict is expected to have far-reaching implications for ongoing and future transnational litigation involving corporate accountability claims, particularly cases reliant on testimony sourced in conflict zones.

For much of the past decade, Colombia built a reputation as one of travel’s great value destinations: culturally rich, visually stunning, and refreshingly affordable. A strong U.S. dollar, competitive hotel rates, and inexpensive food and transport helped turn cities like Medellín and Cartagena into global favorites, while smaller destinations thrived on a steady flow of backpackers and eco-tourists.

This equation is now changing. And faster than the industry expected.

The Colombian peso has strengthened sharply, trading this week near 3,630 to the U.S. dollar, its highest level since mid-2021. For foreign visitors, the effect is immediate and tangible: fewer pesos per dollar at the ATM, and higher costs across nearly every aspect of a trip – from meals and hotel stays to transportation and tours.

The shift is perhaps most visible at the table. Consider a classic Caribbean staple: deep-fried mojarra, served whole with coconut rice and patacones. At La Estrella, a popular local eatery in Cartagena, the dish costs about COP$40,000 per person. Order the same fish at a beachside stall and the price climbs to COP$60,000. In a high-end Old City restaurant, plated with foraged greens and linen service, it can reach COP$120,000 per person.

At today’s exchange rate, that translates to roughly $11, $16, and $33 — still accessible by international standards, but a noticeable jump from the Colombia many travelers remember.

Currency is only part of the story

While peso strength explains much of the increase, Colombia’s tourism sector is also grappling with sharply higher operating costs following a 23% increase in the national minimum wage, enacted by presidential decree under President Gustavo Petro.

From the government’s perspective, the measure was framed as a necessary response to inflation and cost-of-living pressures. For hotels, tour operators, and travel agencies, however, the speed and scale of the increase have posed significant challenges.

The Colombian Hotel and Tourism Association (Cotelco) has warned that the decision places particular strain on an industry where labor accounts for a large share of costs. According to Cotelco, roughly 70% of hotel workers are part of operational teams — including housekeeping, front desk staff, maintenance, kitchens, and security — leaving businesses highly exposed to wage adjustments.

Cotelco has also pointed to recent changes in labor rules, such as higher pay for Sunday and holiday shifts and the earlier start of night-shift premiums, which further increase payroll expenses. Looking ahead, the sector faces additional pressure in July 2026, when Colombia’s legally mandated reduction of the workweek to 42 hours takes effect, a complex adjustment for hotels that operate around the clock.

Rising costs beyond wages

Labor is not the only expense rising. Hotels and tourism businesses are also absorbing higher energy and gas tariffs, including a 20% energy surcharge introduced in 2025, which disproportionately affects establishments that operate continuously and rely heavily on air conditioning, refrigeration, and water systems.

Transportation costs are climbing as well. Higher toll fees and fuel prices have pushed up the cost of airport transfers, private drivers, and overland travel between destinations, quietly adding to tourists’ final bills. These increases are particularly noticeable for travelers moving between regions — for example, from Cartagena to Santa Marta, or through the Coffee Axis by road.

Price increases are not felt evenly across the country.

In large cities such as Bogotá and Medellín, intense competition has helped cushion the blow. These markets offer a wide range of accommodation, from budget hostels and short-term rentals to international five-star hotels, giving travelers flexibility and keeping price growth relatively contained.

In contrast, smaller resort and nature destinations face sharper pressure. In places like Palomino, wedged between the Caribbean Sea and the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, or Salento in the Coffee Axis, accommodation options are limited. Boutique eco-lodges and family-run hotels dominate, and supply cannot easily expand.

In these destinations, rising labor and operating costs are passed on more quickly to guests, making price hikes more visible — and sometimes harder to justify.

According to Anato, Colombia’s association of travel agencies, the wage increase has also disrupted long-term planning. Many tourism businesses had projected annual cost increases of 8% to 12%, not nearly double that figure.

For inbound tourism, which operates on long booking cycles, the timing is especially problematic. Rates, packages, and contracts with international wholesalers for 2026 were often negotiated under different macroeconomic assumptions, limiting companies’ ability to adjust prices after the fact.

Anato has also warned of a double squeeze: rising costs at home combined with a stronger peso, which reduces the real value of revenues earned in foreign currency.

Pay more – Higher expectations

Most travelers are not inherently opposed to paying more for Colombia. What they increasingly expect, however, is visible improvement in exchange.

Higher prices bring sharper scrutiny of cleanliness, waste management, and environmental standards, particularly in coastal areas where beach pollution and informal tourism practices remain persistent concerns. As Colombia positions itself as a higher-value destination, arbitrary pricing, lack of regulation could erode sustainable tourism.

Internal security is another critical factor. As costs rise, long-standing security concerns, especially in rural areas and off-the-beaten path travel corridors, weigh heavily in  destination choice. Travelers paying mid-range or premium prices expect predictability and safety to match the cost.

Looking ahead, a further strengthening of the peso toward 3,500 per dollar would intensify pressure on Colombia’s tourism sector as competition and air connectivity across the region grows fiercer.

Colombia now finds itself competing directly with the all-inclusive efficiency of Mexico’s Riviera Maya and the Dominican Republic, the well-established eco-tourism model of Costa Rica, and the increasingly curated cultural and nature offerings of Guatemala. These destinations have spent years refining price with product, investing in infrastructure, security, and environmental enforcement.

Colombia’s transition from affordable standout to mid-range contender is still underway. Currency strength and wage growth can signal economic maturity, but without tangible improvements in security, the country risks losing travelers to emerging destinations across the Middle East and South East Asia. The message is clear: Colombia remains compelling – but no longer discounted. Whether higher prices translate into a better consumer experience will determine how well the country holds its place in an increasingly crowded travel market.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Monday decreed a 23.7% increase in the country’s minimum wage for 2026, the largest real rise in at least two decades, bypassing negotiations with unions and business groups and sparking warnings from economists, bankers and employers over inflation, job losses and rising informality.

The decree lifts the monthly minimum wage to 1.75 million pesos (U.S$470), or close to 2 million pesos including transport subsidies, and will apply to roughly 2.5 million workers when it takes effect next year. Petro said the measure aims to reduce inequality and move Colombia toward a “living minimum wage” that allows workers to “live better.”

But business associations, financial analysts and opposition lawmakers said the scale of the increase — far above inflation and productivity trends — risks destabilising the labour market and the broader economy.

According to calculations based on official data, with inflation expected to close 2025 at around 5.3% and labour productivity growth estimated at 0.9%, a technically grounded adjustment would have been close to 6.2%. The gap between that benchmark and the decreed hike exceeds 17 percentage points, the largest deviation on record.

Informality and job losses

Colombia’s minimum wage plays an outsized role in the economy, serving not only as the legal wage floor but also as a reference for pensions, social security contributions and public-sector pay.

Banking association Asobancaria warned that increases far above productivity can generate unintended effects. Citing data from the national statistics agency DANE, the group noted that 49% of employed Colombians — about 11.4 million people — earn less than the minimum wage, mostly in the informal economy, while only 10% earn exactly the minimum wage. Former director of DANE and economist Juan Daniel Oviedo believes that an increase that only benefits one-out-of-ten workers will stump job creation. “A minimum wage of 2 million pesos will make us move like turtles when it comes to creating formal jobs  — something we need to structurally address poverty in Colombia.”

Retail association FENALCO described the decision as “populist” and said the talks had been a “charade.” Its president, Jaime Alberto Cabal, said the process ignored technical, economic and productivity variables and would hit small businesses hardest.

Lawmakers also raised concerns about the impact on independent workers and contractors in the agricultural sectors, especially hired-help on coffee planations. Carlos Fernando Motoa, a senator from the opposition Cambio Radical party, said the decision would push vulnerable workers out of the formal system.

“The unintended effects of this improvised handling of the minimum wage will end up hitting independent workers’ pockets,” Motoa said. “Many will be forced to choose between eating or paying for health and pension contributions.”

Economists warned that micro, small and medium-sized enterprises — which account for the majority of employment — may respond by cutting staff, reducing hours or shifting workers into informal arrangements to cope with higher payroll and social security costs.

Inflation and rates at risk

Analysts also cautioned that the wage hike could reignite inflation, complicating the central bank’s easing cycle. Central bank economists have forecast 2026 inflation at 3.6%, down from 5.1% expected in 2025, but several analysts said those projections may now need revising.

In an interview with Reuters, David Cubides, chief economist at Banco de Occidente, called the increase “absolutely unsustainable,” warning it would affect government payrolls, pension liabilities and the informal labour market.

“Inflation forecasts will have to be revised,” Cubides said, adding that interest rates could rise again in the medium term as a result.

The impact is amplified by Colombia’s ongoing reduction in the legal workweek. From July 2026, the standard workweek will fall to 42 hours, meaning the hourly minimum wage will rise by roughly 28.5%, further increasing labour costs.

The decree comes six months before the presidential election on May 31, 2026, and is viewed by critics of Colombia’s first leftist administration as an electoral gamble aimed at shoring up support for the ruling coalition’s candidate, Senator Iván Cepeda.

Opposition senator Esteban Quintero, from the Democratic Center party, warned that Colombia risked repeating the mistakes of other Latin American countries that pursued aggressive wage policies.

“Careful, Colombia. We cannot repeat the history of our neighbours,” Quintero said. “Populism is celebrated at first — and later the costs become unbearable.”

Former finance minister and presidential hopeful Mauricio Cárdenas said the decision would inevitably lead to layoffs, particularly in small businesses already operating on thin margins, and described the policy as “economic populism” whose costs would materialise after the election cycle.

“The employer ends up saying, ‘I can’t sustain this payroll,’” Cárdenas said. “People are laid off, and many end up working for less than the minimum wage. In the end, nothing is achieved.”

Liberal Party senator Mauricio Gómez Amín said the increase risked becoming a political banner rather than a technical policy tool.

“Without technical backing, a 23% increase translates into inflation, bankruptcies and fewer job opportunities,” Gómez Amín said. “Economic populism always sends the bill later.”

While supporters argue the measure will boost purchasing power at the start of 2026, analysts cautioned that the short-term gains could be offset by higher prices, job losses and a further expansion of Colombia’s informal economy — already one of the largest in Latin America.

The U.S. seizure of an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast appears designed to further squeeze the economy of President Nicolás Maduro’s government. The Dec. 10, 2025 operation — in which American forces descended from helicopters onto the vessel — followed months of U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and was immediately condemned by Venezuela as “barefaced robbery and an act of international piracy.”

The seized tanker, according to reports, is a 20-year-old supertanker called Skipper, capable of carrying around 2 million barrels of oil.

According to the Trump administration, the vessel was heading to Cuba. Given its size, however, it is far more likely that the final destination was China. Tankers of this scale are rarely used for short Caribbean routes; much smaller vessels typically serve Cuba.

The tanker had been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2022 for carrying prohibited Iranian oil. At the time, it was alleged that the ship — then known as Adisa — was controlled by Russian oil magnate Viktor Artemov and linked to an oil smuggling network.

On the surface, the seizure was unrelated to U.S. sanctions imposed on Venezuela in 2019 and expanded in 2020 to include secondary sanctions on third parties doing business with Caracas.

Venezuelan officials have therefore described the move as unprecedented, and they are largely correct. While Iranian tankers have been seized in the past for sanctions violations, this marks the first time a vessel departing Venezuela with a Venezuelan crew has been taken.

The Trump administration has signaled it intends to seize not only the cargo but the ship itself — a significant loss for the owning company. Because the shipment was sold under a “Free on Board” contract, the buyer assumed responsibility once the vessel left Venezuelan waters.

Nonetheless, the seizure represents a clear escalation in pressure on Venezuela. Reports indicate that around 30 other tankers operating near the country face some form of sanction. These vessels are part of a shadow fleet designed to evade restrictions while transporting oil from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran.

The message from Washington is unambiguous: more seizures may follow as the U.S. seeks to further squeeze Venezuelan oil revenues.

Venezuela’s economy remains overwhelmingly dependent on oil. Although official figures have not been published for seven years, most analysts estimate that oil accounts for more than 80% of exports, with some placing the figure above 90%.

Most Venezuelan oil is sold on the black market, largely to independent refiners in China. Chinese state-owned firms avoid these purchases to limit sanctions exposure, while authorities in Beijing tend to overlook shipments to non-state entities — particularly when tankers conceal their true origin.

An estimated 80% of Venezuelan oil ultimately goes to China through this channel. About 17% is exported to the United States under a Treasury license granted to Chevron, while roughly 3% goes to Cuba, often on subsidized terms.

Oil also accounts for around 20% of Venezuela’s GDP and more than half of government revenue, making the sector indispensable to Maduro’s survival.

Crucially, Venezuela’s oil industry was already in steep decline before U.S. sanctions began. Production peaked at 3.4 million barrels per day in 1998, fell to 2.7 million by the time Maduro took office in 2013, and dropped to 1.3 million barrels per day by 2019.

The 2019 oil sanctions shut Venezuela out of the U.S. market, forcing it to rely more heavily on China and India. When secondary sanctions followed in 2020, Europe and India halted purchases altogether. Combined with the pandemic-driven oil slump, production collapsed to just 400,000 barrels per day.

Output has since recovered to about 1 million barrels per day, aided largely by Chevron’s continued operations.

To sustain exports, Venezuela relies on a shadow fleet that uses false flags, renamed vessels, and manipulated transponders. Cargoes are sometimes transferred at sea — posing major environmental risks — before being relabeled in transit hubs such as Malaysia and shipped on to China.

The tanker seizure had little immediate impact on global oil prices due to ample supply and Venezuela’s limited market share. However, a more aggressive U.S. campaign could change that calculus.

For Venezuelan oil prices, the consequences may be sharper. Already heavily discounted due to sanctions risk, Venezuelan crude is now likely to be sold at even steeper reductions. Buyers will demand higher discounts and fewer prepayments, while export volumes may fall, forcing production cuts that are costly to reverse.

The result will be further pressure on the limited revenues Maduro depends on to keep the Venezuelan state afloat.

About the author:
Francisco J. Monaldi, Ph.D., is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy and director of the Latin America Energy Program at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

This article is reproduced from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence

Colombia’s Transport Minister María Fernanda Rojas said on Monday that Avianca is close to completing mandatory software updates on its Airbus A320 fleet, with only 19 aircraft still pending intervention after a week of global disruptions triggered by what aviation experts describe as the largest recall in Airbus’s 55-year history.

The grounding forced airlines across several continents to halt operations, rebook thousands of passengers, and reconfigure flight schedules during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

According to Aerocivil, Colombia’s Civil Aviation Authority, 102 of Avianca’s 124 grounded A320 aircraft are now back in service following an accelerated technical effort led in coordination with Airbus technicians. The remaining aircraft are expected to be updated within three days at Avianca’s main maintenance base at Rionegro, Antioquia. Authorities fast-tracked the import of 10 additional software units from France after Colombian regulators, the Ministry of Transport, and the tax agency DIAN jointly cleared an emergency customs process over the weekend.

Latam Airlines and JetSMART, the two other carriers in Colombia operating affected A320s  have already completed updates on their six combined jets. The minister said the rapid turnaround reflects “an unprecedented level of coordination” between airlines, regulators and Airbus engineers, who were deployed across several countries to help implement the corrective measures.

Globally, airlines said operations were returning to normal on Monday, after the grounding struck at a sensitive time for the global aviation industry. The Airbus A320, which only weeks ago overtook the Boeing 737 as history’s most-delivered jetliner, also faces long-term maintenance bottlenecks that have left hundreds of aircraft parked and waiting for parts under the pressure of post-pandemic demand.

The crisis also hit Airbus at a moment when the European manufacturer was stepping up efforts to meet its year-end delivery targets. Signals of lower-than-expected deliveries for November have already rattled investors, and the grounding added further uncertainty to an already tight production schedule. Shares of major Airbus customers — including Lufthansa and easyJet — fell on Monday amid concerns that delivery timelines could slip further. According to Reuters several deliveries have already been impacted, though the extent and duration remain unclear; one industry insider estimated around 50 aircraft could face delays.

Adding to Airbus’s challenges, the company on Monday confirmed a separate quality issue involving metal fuselage panels on a “limited number” of A320 aircraft. While the defect does not pose an immediate safety risk, Airbus said it is taking a “conservative approach” by inspecting all aircraft that could potentially be affected. The announcement sent Airbus shares tumbling as much as 6% during early trading, heightening market anxiety already fueled by the software crisis and flight disruptions.

The initial software alert was triggered after Airbus analyzed data from a recent in-flight incident and concluded that intense solar radiation under certain conditions could corrupt data linked to the aircraft’s flight-control computers. The disruptions rippled across major hubs in Latin America and the United States, coinciding with the U.S. Thanksgiving travel weekend, one of the busiest periods of the year.

Delta and American Airlines were forced to delay or cancel flights as dozens of A320 jets were pulled from service for urgent inspections. “Airbus apologises for any challenges and delays caused to passengers and airlines by this event,” the manufacturer said in a statement.

For Colombia’s flagship carrier and one of the world’s largest A320 operators, the near-completion of the updates marks a significant recovery after days of cancellations, rebookings and schedule reshuffling. The airline will reopen ticket sales on December 5 as its domestic and international network returns to full capacity and the remaining 19 jets are certified to fly.

Colombia’s flagship carrier, Avianca, announced Friday it has grounded more than 70% of its Airbus A320 fleet after the European manufacturer issued an urgent global bulletin ordering operators to carry out immediate software updates to prevent potential flight-control failures.

The disruption, one of the most severe to hit the airline in years, comes as Airbus launched one of the largest fleet-wide recalls in its history, affecting some 6,000 A320 commercial aircraft worldwide — more than half of the global fleet. The A320 is the world’s most widely used single-aisle airliner and the backbone of Avianca’s operations across Latin America and to U.S and Canadian hubs.

There are around 11,300 A320 jets in operation in total.

In a statement, Avianca said Airbus notified operators on November 28 that a significant portion of A320 require a mandatory software modification. The update, which Airbus described as reverting to an earlier software version, must be applied before affected aircraft can resume flights, except for ferry operations to maintenance bases.

“As soon as the aircraft reach their maintenance bases, they must remain on the ground until the updates are completed,” Avianca said. “This order affects more than 70% of Avianca’s fleet.”

The airline warned that the grounding will trigger significant operational disruptions over the next 10 days as engineers work to install the update across its aircraft. To limit further complications and manage passenger flow, Avianca has temporarily closed ticket sales for travel dates through December 8 — an extraordinary measure taken to “reorganize its capacity and re-accommodate passengers on available flights.”

Customers with upcoming reservations will receive direct notifications from the airline detailing their travel options.

The update requirement has already led to cascading delays and cancellations across several regions. Reuters reported that, at the time Airbus issued its notice to more than 350 operators, roughly 3,000 A320 aircraft were airborne. Airlines in the United States, Europe, South America, India and New Zealand said the repairs could trigger operational disruption during one of the busiest travel weeks of the year.

American Airlines, the world’s largest operator of the A320 family, said about 340 of its 480 aircraft require the fix. The carrier expects the majority of updates to be completed by Saturday, estimating about two hours of work per jet. Delta Airlines said updates to a small portion of its Airbus A320 planes will likely be completed by Saturday morning, a spokesperson said.

Avianca, however, expects the impact to last longer given the scale of its grounded fleet in Latin America and the limited availability of maintenance slots at Bogotá’s El Dorado International Airport.

The airline said its priority is passenger and crew safety and that it is working “as quickly as possible” to complete the mandatory modifications and restore normal operations.

To mitigate the fallout, Avianca is offering several options to affected passengers:

• Rebooking on the nearest available Avianca flight or on partner airlines with which it has commercial agreements.

• Flexible changes, allowing travelers to reschedule without penalty fees or fare differences, subject to availability, for up to 180 days after the original travel date.

• Refunds for unused flight segments through the airline’s website, call center, sales offices or travel agencies.

Avianca urged customers not to go to the airport unless their flight has been confirmed and to closely monitor email notifications associated with their reservation, as well as updates on its official channels.

Despite the scale of the disruption, the airline said the swift grounding demonstrates its commitment to safety while complying with Airbus’ unprecedented directive.

“The priority of Avianca is to ensure the safety of our passengers and crew,” the company said, adding that it aims to complete the required modifications as soon as possible to “minimize service disruptions.”