Colombia growth tracker signals Q2 acceleration above first-quarter pace

Colombia’s economy showed signs of acceleration in the rolling quarter ended in May 2026, according to the latest NowCast Bancolombia report published June 3 by Grupo Cibest, the quantitative research arm of Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB, BVC: BCOLOMBIA). The proprietary economic activity index registered a year-over-year expansion of 2.9% on a three-month moving average basis for the March–May 2026 period, up from 2.2% recorded in the comparable period a year earlier and an improvement of 30 basis points over the prior month’s reading, which was itself revised upward by 30 basis points from an initial estimate of 2.3%.

The report’s authors describe the result as marking a shift in the growth trend, with second-quarter 2026 conditions appearing more favorable than those observed in the first quarter. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, however, the index showed no change from the prior month, registering 0.0%. On a year-over-year basis using the original, non-seasonally adjusted series, growth came in at 2.2% for May 2026.

For the full second quarter of 2026, the NowCast model projects year-over-year GDP growth of 2.6%, based on the May 31 reading. That estimate is slightly below the market consensus tracked by Latin Focus Consensus Forecasts, which has held steady at 2.7%. The NowCast estimate for 2Q26 was revised up from 2.4% as of April 30.

The NowCast Bancolombia index is constructed by Grupo Cibest using transaction data from the channels and payment methods of the Bancolombia group, processed through quantitative and analytical tools to generate high-frequency estimates of productive activity in Colombia. The index is designed as a complement to official statistics published by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, DANE) and is not a substitute for official GDP figures.

“The data suggests that conditions in 2Q26 to date are more favorable than those observed in 1Q26.” — NowCast Bancolombia, June 3, 2026, Grupo Cibest

Sector Performance

At the sector level, the rolling quarter ended in May points to a broad consolidation of trends across Colombia’s productive sectors. Commerce (wholesales and retail) held growth near 3.3% year-over-year, continuing a trend that has been sustained through the first half of 2026. Public administration posted 4.7% year-over-year growth in May, maintaining steady expansion. Real estate services continued its stable trajectory at 2.0%, while financial services accelerated to 5.6% year-over-year in May, up from 2.8% in March.

Construction recorded 3.6% year-over-year growth in May after a period of deceleration that had brought the sector down from highs above 6% in mid-2025. Agriculture registered 3.5% year-over-year growth in May, also showing renewed momentum after a softer stretch earlier in the year. Manufacturing reached 2.4% in May, a modest acceleration from 0.9% in February. Entertainment posted the strongest reading in the heat map at 6.6% year-over-year in May, continuing a recovery that began in mid-2025. Mining remained in modest positive territory at 1.3% in May, though it has been volatile, dipping into negative readings as recently as February 2026 at -2.4%.

The information sector was the weakest performer, posting only 0.2% year-over-year growth in May after recording negative readings in the November 2025 through February 2026 period. Utilities registered 2.2% growth in May, and professional services came in at 1.9%.

The NowCast report was prepared by Arturo Yesid González Peña, Head of Quantitative and Analytics, and Sebastián Ospina Cuartas, Data Controller, within Grupo Cibest’s Economic, Industry and Market Research area. The index is available on Bloomberg under the ticker ALLX COBC<GO>. The report carries a standard disclaimer noting that its projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from estimates contained in the document. It does not constitute investment advice.

Above photo: Leatherworking machinery on display at Colombia’s Leather Expo in Bogotá (photo: Loren Moss)

Colombia’s gross domestic product expanded 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of 2025, surpassing prevailing market estimates, according to data released May 16 by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) and presented by the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo. The results reflected positive performance across production, industry, and domestic commerce.

The manufacturing sector was among the quarter’s strongest contributors, posting year-over-year growth of 2.9% and adding 0.3 percentage points to the annual variation in GDP. The sector’s performance placed it among the primary drivers of national economic output for the period.

Within manufacturing, two subsectors recorded particularly pronounced gains. Motor vehicle production expanded 27.8% year-over-year, while metallurgy grew 6.6%. Both categories function as inputs to broader industrial supply chains, and their recovery carries implications for upstream and downstream productive linkages, including employment in skilled manufacturing roles.

“What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication.” — Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism of Colombia

Separate monthly data from statistical agency DANE’s índice de producción industrial (IPI) showed that real industrial output grew 3.9% in March 2026 compared to March 2025. The expansion was distributed across multiple subsectors, including motor vehicles, metallurgy, machinery and equipment, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber, plastics, and non-metallic minerals, indicating that the manufacturing recovery was not concentrated in a single production category.

Wholesale and retail trade expanded 6.0% in the first quarter, reflecting increased domestic market activity and business commerce. The trade sector’s performance complemented the manufacturing gains and contributed to the overall breadth of the quarter’s expansion.

Not all sectors contributed positively. Construction contracted 5.4% compared to the first quarter of 2025, the weakest result among major economic categories for the period. Public administration, defense, social security, education, and health services grew 5.7%, and reporting by Colombian media citing DANE data indicated that public spending accounted for approximately 46% of total first-quarter growth — a concentration that introduces a structural caveat to the headline figure, as private-sector momentum remains uneven across the economy.

Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, minister of the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo, addressed the composition of the results in a statement issued alongside the data release. “What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition,” she said. “The recovery of manufacturing, metallurgical, and industrial production activities demonstrates a greater role for sectors associated with transformation, productive capacity, and value-added generation within the national economic dynamic. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication. These are meaningful indicators of strengthening of the manufacturing structure and national production.”

The first-quarter data were released as Colombia continues to manage elevated monetary policy rates and fiscal pressures that have weighed on investment activity in recent quarters. The Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo indicated that the quarter’s results reflect progress on an agenda oriented toward strengthening industry, domestic production, and commercial activity, though the degree to which private-sector industrial recovery can sustain these gains independently of public spending remains a key variable for subsequent quarters.

Headline photo credit: Tecnoglass