As Colombia nears its presidential vote, two candidates have endorsed Iván Cepeda and eight others remain below 3.5% in polls

With less than two weeks remaining before Colombia’s presidential election, whose first round is scheduled for May 31, three candidates are concentrating most voter support and competing for access to the presidential palace, Casa de Nariño: ruling coalition senator Iván Cepeda, candidate of the left-wing Pacto Histórico party; senator Paloma Valencia, representing the right-wing Centro Democrático party; and lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella, a figure of Colombia’s far right.

Although 13 candidates will appear on the ballot, two contenders: Clara López and Luis Gilberto Murillo, withdrew their campaigns to support Cepeda, while the remaining candidates have failed to surpass 3.5% voter support in pre-elections polls, a figure close to the statistical margin of error.

If polling trends hold, no candidate is expected to secure the 50% plus one vote needed to win outright in the first round, making a runoff election on June 21, 2026, highly likely.

Cepeda has remained relatively stable in polls, with voter support ranging between 35% and 43%, effectively securing his place in a second round if trends continue.

The key question: Who will face Cepeda in a runoff?

The main electoral uncertainty centers on who will finish second and challenge the ruling coalition in a likely runoff.

Under Colombia’s electoral system, only the two candidates receiving the highest vote totals advance to the second round. The fragmentation of the political right has complicated efforts to consolidate support behind either Valencia or De la Espriella.

Polls suggest a competitive scenario. Valencia has registered between 14% and 21% voter support, while De la Espriella fluctuates between 16% and 24%, depending on the poll and methodology used.

The lack of unity between the two camps stems from both ideological differences and their political structures. Valencia is a member of the political party founded by former President Álvaro Uribe, while De la Espriella entered the race through an independent signature campaign, marking the first time Colombia’s far right has emerged as a viable contender for the presidency.

A campaign shaped by the absence of public debates

The presidential campaign has been marked by an unusual lack of debates among the leading candidates.

Cepeda has refused to participate in events organized by media outlets, arguing that proposed formats do not offer guarantees of neutrality or what he describes as “fair rules” established by news organizations.

As a result, part of the political confrontation has shifted to Congress, where both Cepeda and Valencia currently serve in the Senate.

Critics, however, have challenged Cepeda’s decision. Former Bogotá Mayor and presidential candidate Claudia López argued that his absence from debates reflects that “Cepeda does not want to take responsibility for the failures of Total Peace (Paz Total),” the negotiation policy with armed groups promoted by President Gustavo Petro, in which Cepeda played a key role as a lawmaker.

Instead of regular debates, the campaign has been dominated by disputes over media formats, digital presence, social media strategies and public controversies aimed at amplifying candidates’ visibility.

De la Espriella embraces confrontation

One of the candidates who has most effectively capitalized on the digital environment is Abelardo de la Espriella, whose political strategy has been compared to right-wing populist leadership styles such as those of Argentine President Javier Milei and US President Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, De la Espriella has faced several media controversies, including an incident involving journalist Laura Rodríguez of Piso 8 FM, for which he later apologized after accusations of inappropriate sexual conduct. He also clashed live on air with television presenter María Lucía Fernández of Caracol Noticias, whom he called “ignorant.”

Questions also emerged following reports by digital outlet La Silla Vacía regarding donations linked to the US Republican Party.

Despite the controversies, the strategy appears to be strengthening his electoral standing. An Atlas Intel poll for Semana magazine, published May 15, showed De la Espriella surpassing Valencia by a two-to-one margin for the first time, with 32.9% support compared with 16.7%.

However, the polling firm is currently under investigation by Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) amid concerns over whether its methodology complies with national standards. If irregularities are confirmed, the firm could face suspension of its operations in Colombia.

Valencia seeks to broaden support toward the political center

Meanwhile, Valencia has sought to expand her electoral base by shifting strategically toward the political center.

As part of that effort, on May 17 she officially introduced her proposal “Mámá No Está Sola (Mom Is Not Alone),” aimed at female heads of household and focused on access to credit, employment and housing property. The proposal also includes a promise to deliver 1 million homes prioritized for women community leaders.

Valencia’s candidacy also marks a historic first for Colombia’s political right: it is the first time a major conservative party has nominated a woman for president.

Her vice presidential running mate, former Bogotá councilman Juan Daniel Oviedo, has openly identified as a member of the LGBTQ+ community, a move that represents a significant shift for the Centro Democrático traditionally conservative electorate.

Colombia appears headed for a runoff

With a highly fragmented field and no signs of consolidation among right-wing candidates, Colombia appears increasingly likely to hold a presidential runoff on June 21, 2026.

Barring a major shift in polling trends, the contest seems set to come down to Iván Cepeda and whichever opposition candidate manages to emerge from an increasingly competitive battle within Colombia’s political right.

Former Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva releases another scathing attack on his former boss as he fights charges.

On April 10, former Colombian Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva Durán released a formal statement responding to his indictment by the Fiscalía General de la Nación. Leyva faces charges related to his 2023 decision to declare a passport procurement tender void, a process that involved the private security printing firm Thomas Greg & Sons. The former official characterized the legal proceedings as a politically motivated maneuver orchestrated from the Casa de Nariño.

The indictment for prevarication centers on Leyva’s intervention in the bidding process, which the Fiscalía interprets as a deliberate breach of administrative law. In his defense, Leyva maintained that his actions were necessary to address irregularities and ensure the application of the Constitución Política de Colombia. He argued that the prosecuting body’s thesis would criminalize the conduct of any public servant who identifies unconstitutional terms in a government contract.

“If that argument is accepted, then any official who declares a bidding process void because they find the terms and conditions unconstitutional or illegal should go to jail.” — Álvaro Leyva Durán, former Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Leyva also directed accusations toward his successor at the Cancillería, Luis Gilberto Murillo. According to the statement, Murillo suspended a subsequent legal bidding process to justify a state of emergency, which Leyva claims led to an unnecessary markup of approximately $30 billion COP. Furthermore, Leyva alleged that software contracts exceeding $10 billion COP were improperly managed and that the funds remain unaccounted for under the current administration.

The former minister’s statement included severe personal and political criticisms of President Gustavo Petro. Leyva alleged a lack of moral conduct by the head of state during international state visits and questioned the president’s sobriety in public settings. The letter further asserted that US authorities are currently investigating potential links between the executive branch and narcotics trafficking organizations.

Regarding the domestic political landscape, Leyva warned of perceived risks to the Colombian electoral process. He alleged that the administration has engaged in the illegal interception of political candidates and intends to undermine the integrity of future vote counts. Leyva concluded by affirming his intention to defend his record and his legal decisions before the Corte Suprema de Justicia.

COMUNICADO pic.twitter.com/7YYhoHJD4B

— Álvaro Leyva Durán (@AlvaroLeyva) April 10, 2026

Finance Colombia translation of Leyva’s recent open letter dated April 10th

Some time ago, I denounced in a public communiqué that Gustavo Petro had woven against me an atrocious persecution, as retaliation for my denunciations of his closeness to the world of drugs—denunciations that have led to the United States having him cornered today. There I warned that, from within the government, intrigues were being made to throw me in prison and that attempts would be made against my life.

Now, months later, the Attorney General’s Office accuses me of malfeasance (prevaricato) because I declared void a passport tender that, according to that same institution, was based on a “catch-all specifications document” (pliego sastre). For the accusing entity, I should not have fulfilled the obligation of applying the Constitution that I myself helped draft and, by seeking equality, I acted with malicious intent. The world turned upside down.

Understand the gravity: if that thesis is accepted, any official who declares a tender void because they find unconstitutional or illegal specifications must go to prison. So, faced with such a thing, the trial is welcome. I will give the battle in the Supreme Court with all my strength. Because I trust its magistrates, because my life has been a permanent struggle for Colombia, and because justice, reason, and the law are with me.

The acquittal will be the logical consequence of the process in which I will prove, with official documents and among other things, the following: that I left in motion a new, clean, and legal tender, which Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo suspended. That he thus justified another manifest urgency, completely unnecessary, and added an overcharge of nearly 30 billion pesos to it. And that he contracted software for more than 10 billion additional pesos, which was pocketed. All by hand-picking. All murky. All without control. Thus, by brute force, the door was opened to the passport debacle of today. I warned Petro of what was coming down on the country. But he kept silent.

Today I feel the pride of having helped unmask the boss of the mafia that has plunged Colombia into its darkest hours. I took office as his Foreign Minister with the hope of change. But then I came to know his life of vice and decadence. I was slow to understand his vileness and, surely, also slow to denounce it. But from my father Jorge Leyva Urdaneta, exiled for opposing the dictatorship, I inherited courage and respect for institutions; from Álvaro Gómez Hurtado, I learned the necessity of a just order; and from Misael Pastrana Borrero, I learned to think about social peace. So, faithful to myself and to the spirit of my mentors, I denounced in various letters the moral, political, and personal degeneration that I came to know in Gustavo Petro. And time has proven me right.

The President is an infamous being: international human trafficking is a scourge of the poor girls of Colombia, and he, in the middle of a state visit, ends up as a customer of a brothel in Lisbon; he claims to be a champion of peace, but full of hatred he violently divides society with his stale, classist, and racist rhetoric; he claims to fight drug trafficking, but he goes out into the public square drugged, drunk on alcohol and sectarianism, to mistreat and insult those who contradict him, while in the United States his ties to narcos are being investigated. And so, from scandal to scandal, the horrible night does not cease: the homeland trampled by its own President is today the object of all the mockery abroad.

Petro knows that the upcoming electoral process resembles the one recently lived in Chile. And, to avoid the same result, he illegally intercepts candidates, seeks to destroy them, and is already trying to cast a mantle of doubt over the vote count. But Colombia deserves a new dawn. And the radical left, which—turned into the President’s hooligan squad—forgives him everything, seems condemned to the desert. We shall see whether, in the future, they also forgive him for being responsible for their possible defeat. For my part, I remain ready for all battles: always embracing justice against oppression, and with the law as my spear, shield, and banner.

Renewable expansion strengthens Colombia energy matrix for investors.

The Norwegian renewable energy company Scatec ASA (OSE: SCATC) has reached financial close and initiated construction on the Barzalosa solar power plant in Colombia. The project, located in the municipio of Nariño within the department of Cundinamarca, has a planned capacity of 130 MWp. Total capital expenditure for the facility is estimated at $121 million USD.

The financing structure for the project is based on a 70% leverage model, utilizing a combination of equity and non-recourse debt. Scatec holds a 65% equity stake in the venture, while Norfund, the Norwegian investment fund for developing countries, provides the remaining 35%. The senior debt was provided by Bancolombia S.A. (NYSE: CIB; BVC: BCOLOMBIA) and the Financiera de Desarrollo Nacional (FDN).

The Financiera de Desarrollo Nacional committed a total of 200,358 million COP to the project. This includes a senior debt facility of up to 164,458 million COP with a term of 18 years, representing approximately 50% of the total project debt. Additionally, the FDN provided a bank guarantee of up to 35,900 million COP to substitute reserve accounts for debt service and operation and maintenance costs. The FDN also acted as a co-structurer for the financial framework of the operation.

“The financing of the Barzalosa project reflects the capacity of the FDN to structure long-term financial solutions that make strategic energy transition projects in Colombia viable,” said Enrique Cadena, Vice President of Structured Finance at the FDN.

The law firm Holland & Knight served as legal counsel to the lenders, Bancolombia and FDN, in the COP 330 billion financing transaction. The legal team was led by partner María Juliana Saa, with support from partner Inés Elvira Vesga and associates Juan Sebastián Parra and Juan Felipe Alonso. Other legal and financial advisors involved in the transaction included Cuatrecasas, which advised the borrower; Brigard Urrutia, which advised FDN regarding the credit facility; and Astris Finance, which provided financial structuring advice.

Revenue for the plant will be supported by a 15-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with BTG Pactual Comercializadora de Energía (BVMF: BPAC11). The agreement covers 85% of the estimated energy production and is denominated in Colombian pesos, with adjustments based on the Producer Price Index. The remaining 15% of production will be sold on the Colombian spot market. The project is also eligible for the Cargo por Confiabilidad (reliability charge) and may access resources from the Inter-American Development Bank and the Climate Investment Funds.

Construction includes the installation of the solar array and the development of a six-kilometer transmission line to connect the plant to the national grid. Scatec is acting as the lead developer and the designated Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) provider, covering approximately 70% of the capital expenditure. The company will also manage operations, maintenance, and asset management. The Barzalosa plant is expected to reach its commercial operation date in the first half of 2027.

While Colombia & Ecuador are at peace, the neighboring presidents have a sour relationship going back to when Colombian President Gustavo Petro initially refused to recognize Daniel Noboa’s election.

Traders and transport operators have suspended a 19-day blockade at the Rumichaca International Bridge, the primary land crossing between Colombia and Ecuador. The protest, catalyzed by a 50% tax imposed by the Ecuadorian government on Colombian goods, was lifted to accommodate travel and commerce during the Semana Santa holiday period. Despite the suspension of the strike, the regional business community reports that significant economic damage and diplomatic tensions persist.

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa (photo: Carlos Silva/Presidencia de la República)

The closure of the border crossing created a substantial disruption in binational economic activity. Estimates from the Cámara de Comercio de Ipiales in Nariño, Colombia indicate that losses reached approximately $5 million USD per day due to freight remaining stationary in the border zone. The Comité Gremial de Trabajadores de la Frontera de Ipiales stated that while the reopening is a responsible gesture for the high-traffic holiday season, current tariff policies continue to threaten hundreds of direct and indirect jobs linked to foreign trade.

The Governor of Nariño, Luis Alfonso Escobar, criticized the trade barriers implemented by the administration of Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa. Governor Escobar argued that such measures inadvertently encourage illicit activities in the region. He emphasized that instead of facilitating formal commerce, high tariffs drive trade toward illegality, undermining regional security efforts. To mitigate the conflict, the Comunidad Andina de Naciones (CAN) has initiated high-level dialogues. Diplomatic delegations led by Colombian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Juana Castro and her Ecuadorian counterpart, Alejandro Dávalos, held a virtual working group to address pending issues in trade, transport, energy, and hydrocarbons.

“Decisions adopted without considering the reality of our communities have put at risk the livelihood of merchants, transporters, foreign trade workers, and thousands of people who live from binational exchange,” stated the Comité Gremial de Trabajadores de la Frontera de Ipiales.

Diplomatic friction has extended into the energy sector. President Noboa claimed that in 2017, Ecuador assisted Colombia during a potential blackout by charging 1.6 cents USD per kWh, whereas in 2024, Colombia charged an average of 28 cents USD per kWh during Ecuador’s hydroelectric crisis. In response, the Colombian Minister of Mines and Energy, Edwin Palma, clarified that prices during the 2023-2024 El Niño phenomenon reflected the actual costs of production and distribution, particularly when fossil fuel-powered thermoelectric plants using fuel oil and diesel were activated.

The ongoing trade dispute has impacted more than 5,500 companies over the past two months. Diana Marcela Morales, the Colombian Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism, confirmed scheduled meetings with Ecuadorian officials to de-escalate the conflict and establish fair, transparent rules. Concurrently, the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo has moved to protect domestic industries by implementing new tariffs on steel and ceramics from countries without existing free trade agreements. These measures aim to counter market distortions and protect a sector that employs more than 50,000 people while promoting circular economy practices and reducing CO2 emissions.

Above photo: Border between Ecuador & Colombia looking towards Ipiales, Colombia (Photo: Cancillería de Colombia)