Refining margin surge cushions revenue drop amid leadership void

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC, BVC: ECOPETROL) reported first-quarter 2026 consolidated revenues of 28.6 trillion COP, a decline of 8.7% from 31.4 trillion COP in the year-earlier period, as lower crude oil prices and reduced hydrocarbon production compressed the top line for Colombia’s state-controlled oil and gas company. Against that backdrop, a marked recovery in refining margins and disciplined cost management lifted EBITDA by 1.5% to 13.5 trillion COP, yielding a 47% EBITDA margin and partially offsetting the revenue headwind. At the Q1 2026 average exchange rate of approximately 3,700 COP per USD, the quarter’s revenues translate to roughly $7.73 billion USD and EBITDA to approximately $3.65 billion USD.

Net income for the quarter reached 2.9 trillion COP (approximately $784 million USD), down 7.7% year-over-year, reflecting the combined drag of lower revenues, a sharply elevated effective tax rate of 37.1%, and a one-time charge of 1.2 trillion COP for the impuesto al patrimonio — Colombia’s government-mandated wealth levy on large corporations established to fund post-disaster reconstruction measures. The company is also subject to a 10% income tax surcharge applicable for fiscal year 2026, which is embedded in the reported effective rate. The aggregate tax burden absorbed a disproportionate share of operating improvement relative to prior periods, limiting the flow-through of refining gains to the net income line.

Total hydrocarbon production averaged 725.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboed) in Q1 2026, below the 745 kboed recorded in the 2025 annual average cited by management during the March 2026 general shareholders’ meeting. Domestic crude output represented the largest component at approximately 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd). Ecopetrol’s Permian Basin operations in the United States contributed 91.8 kbd, underscoring the continued strategic importance of the international segment. Gas production continued a multi-year declining trend that poses a medium-term domestic supply challenge; management has sought to address this partially through regasification capacity additions at Puerto Bahía and on the Pacific coast, expected to come online in the second half of 2026 with a combined contribution of up to 430 billion BTU per day.

The refining segment delivered the quarter’s most pronounced operational outperformance. Ecopetrol’s domestic refineries, led by Refinería de Cartagena, processed 417.5 kbd of crude throughput. The integrated refining margin rose to $17.3 USD per barrel, a 60% improvement over the same quarter of 2025, driven by favorable differential pricing between domestic crude benchmarks and refined product values alongside ongoing operational efficiency improvements. The Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas (CREG) and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía remain central to the regulatory framework governing downstream margins over the medium term.

The balance sheet carries significant structural and contingent risk items of direct relevance to institutional credit and equity holders. Gross debt stood at 108.1 trillion COP (approximately $29.2 billion USD), representing a leverage ratio of 2.3 times trailing EBITDA — a level that leaves limited room for further deterioration before debt covenants or rating agency thresholds become binding. Ecopetrol holds a receivable of 4.2 trillion COP (approximately $1.14 billion USD) from the Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles (FEPC), a government fuel price stabilization mechanism that represents a claim on the Colombian treasury with timing and recovery risk. A dispute with the Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales (DIAN) over value-added tax assessments totals 12.26 trillion COP (approximately $3.31 billion USD) in aggregate, of which 10.22 trillion COP relates to Ecopetrol’s consolidated operations and 2.04 trillion COP to Refinería de Cartagena. Both cases are under administrative and judicial review; no provisions have been recognized in the financial statements pending resolution, but the potential liability represents a material contingency relative to the company’s quarterly net income.

On the corporate development front, Ecopetrol disclosed three significant transactions during or following the quarter. The company agreed to acquire producing assets from Gran Tierra Energy (NYSE: GTE, TSX: GTE) for $92.4 million USD, adding Colombian upstream production inventory in basins where both companies have operated. In Brazil, Ecopetrol launched a tender offer for shares of Brava Energia (BVMF: BRAV3) at 23 BRL per share, seeking to expand its footprint in that country’s oil and gas sector. And in a transaction that would reshape the mid-size independent landscape in Colombia, the company reached an agreement to acquire Parex Resources (TSX: PXT) for $250 million USD; Parex is a Colombia-focused producer with a complementary asset base across the Llanos and other producing basins. Collectively, the three transactions signal that Ecopetrol’s capital allocation strategy under the current government continues to favor upstream consolidation despite the elevated leverage profile.

The exploration portfolio generated positive news announcements. The Copoazú-1 exploratory well, drilled in Colombia’s Llanos foothills region, was confirmed as a commercial discovery, adding to the domestic reserve base. The Sirius offshore project advanced through the Consulta Previa process — a legally mandated prior consultation with indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities required before development of projects in or near their territories — reaching a milestone in community engagement that brings the project closer to formal development sanction. The Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH) oversees the licensing framework within which both projects operate.

“Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” — Martín Ravelo, President, Unión Sindical Obrera (USO)

The ISA transmission segment, managed through Ecopetrol’s majority stake in ISA — Interconexión Eléctrica S.A., contributed stable regulated cash flows during the quarter. ISA completed 46 transmission reinforcement works across its Latin American concession portfolio. The segment also completed the acquisition of 100% of IE Madeira in Brazil, consolidating its position in that country’s power grid interconnection infrastructure. ISA further submitted a competitive bid for the Río Bueno–Puerto Montt high-voltage transmission line concession in Chile, demonstrating the group’s appetite for long-duration, inflation-linked infrastructure assets across the Andes region. For institutional investors evaluating Ecopetrol as a blended hydrocarbons-and-infrastructure holding, ISA’s consistent cash generation provides partial diversification from crude price volatility, though it does not insulate the consolidated entity from headline governance risk.

The most consequential variable for the investment thesis over the near term is Ecopetrol’s prolonged governance crisis. At the company’s general shareholders’ meeting on March 27, 2026, held at the Corferias convention center in Bogotá, minority shareholders loudly heckled president Ricardo Roa — with audible shouts of “¡Fuera, fuera!” reverberating through the hall — as debate over his leadership erupted into open confrontation. The meeting approved a dividend of 121 COP per share for minority holders and a 4 trillion COP distribution to the Colombian government as majority shareholder, payable in two installments by June 30, 2026. Despite the financial business conducted, governance overshadowed the proceedings.

Roa faces two separate judicial proceedings. The Fiscalía General de la Nación formally charged him in connection with alleged influence peddling related to the purchase of an apartment in northern Bogotá — charges he has denied. Separately, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) is examining whether campaign spending limits were violated during President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign, which Roa managed — an investigation that Finance Colombia has covered in detail. Angela Maria Robledo, Chair of the Board of Directors, defended the board’s decision to retain Roa at the March assembly, citing the constitutional presumption of innocence. However, four of the nine board members had already formally recorded their support for his removal at that point, exposing a divided governance structure at a time when strategic and operational decisions require unified leadership.

The Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), which represents approximately one-third of Ecopetrol’s workforce, issued a production strike ultimatum timed to a March 30 board meeting. Martín Ravelo, president of the USO, framed the leadership crisis explicitly in terms of US regulatory risk: “Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” Ravelo further warned that the company’s outstanding international debt — which he placed at approximately $30 billion USD and which is exacerbated by elevated interest rates — left Ecopetrol exposed to potential covenant triggers or early repayment demands in a scenario where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Office of Foreign Assets Control were to take enforcement action.

Following sustained pressure from the USO, minority shareholders, and opposition political figures, Ecopetrol’s board approved an extended leave of absence for Roa beginning April 7, 2026. Under the arrangement, Roa used accrued vacation through May 27, followed by 30 calendar days of unpaid leave beginning May 28, extending his absence through the end of June — a period encompassing Colombia’s presidential first round on May 31 and a potential runoff on June 21. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra, the company’s executive vice president of hydrocarbons and designated first alternate to the presidency since November 2025, was appointed acting president. Hurtado Parra holds an MBA in International Oil and Gas and brings more than 28 years of energy sector experience to the acting role, having previously served as vice president of exploration, development, and production.

The political calendar creates a structural transition risk that sits above the operational and financial results as the primary concern for long-duration investors. Colombia’s incoming government, to be inaugurated August 7, 2026, is widely expected to appoint a new Ecopetrol board and select a new company president. That transition may bring material shifts in strategic priorities — including the pace of upstream investment, the approach to the FEPC receivable recovery, the trajectory of energy transition spending, and the capital allocation balance between the hydrocarbons segment and the ISA infrastructure platform. The Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía will both play key roles in establishing the post-election policy framework under which Ecopetrol operates. Institutional investors holding exposure to Ecopetrol via NYSE: EC or BVC: ECOPETROL must weigh Q1’s genuine operational improvement — most visibly in refining margins and EBITDA stability — against a governance and policy transition risk profile that is unlikely to be resolved before the August handover.

Ecopetrol’s Cartagena refinery (photo courtesy Ecopetrol)

Tariff headwinds compress Tecnoglass margins despite record Q1 sales

Tecnoglass, Inc. (NYSE: TGLS) reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $249.0 million USD, a 12.0% year-over-year increase and a first-quarter record for the Barranquilla, Colombia-based window and architectural glass manufacturer. Despite the top-line growth, net income fell to $31.9 million USD, or $0.71 per diluted share, from $42.2 million USD, or $0.90 per diluted share, in the same period of 2025, as elevated US aluminum costs linked to import tariffs, mandatory minimum wage increases in Colombia, and a strengthening Colombian peso combined to compress gross margins by 540 basis points to 38.5%.

Multi-family and commercial revenues rose 20.4% year-over-year, driven by continued activity across key markets including geographies beyond Florida, which has historically dominated the company’s US revenue mix. Single-family residential revenues were relatively flat on a year-over-year basis, with management attributing the result to the timing of order conversion into revenue rather than underlying demand, noting that order growth in the segment remained positive into April 2026. On a geographic basis, the US accounted for $237.1 million USD, or approximately 95% of total revenues, up 11.6%. Colombia generated $7.5 million USD, up 17.2%, and other international markets contributed $4.4 million USD, up 27.3%.

Gross profit declined to $95.8 million USD from $97.5 million USD in Q1 2025 despite the higher revenue base. The company cited an unfavorable revenue mix driven by a greater proportion of installation-related revenue, higher raw material costs — with US aluminum tariffs representing an incremental headwind of approximately $6.4 million USD in the quarter — higher salary expenses resulting from annual minimum wage adjustments in Colombia, and the effect of a stronger Colombian peso on costs incurred locally. Pricing actions and operating leverage on higher volume partly offset these pressures.

“We see a clear path to fully offsetting the impact of tariffs in 2027, when full-year pricing across both businesses and incremental automation savings are expected to be realized.” — Santiago Giraldo, Chief Financial Officer, Tecnoglass

Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $50.9 million USD, or 20.4% of revenues, from $42.5 million USD, or 19.1%, in Q1 2025. The increase reflected higher personnel costs from annual salary adjustments, peso appreciation, and higher transportation and commission costs tied to revenue growth. The period also included a one-time charge of $2.9 million USD related to Colombia’s *impuesto al patrimonio*, a government-imposed wealth tax levied on large corporations to fund measures addressing recent climate-related events in the country.

Adjusted EBITDA — which excludes non-cash foreign exchange gains and losses, the bad-debt provision, non-recurring charges, and equity-method adjustments related to the company’s joint venture in Vidrio Andino with Saint-Gobain (EPA: SGO) — came in at $61.5 million USD, or 24.7% of total revenues, compared to $70.2 million USD, or 31.6%, in Q1 2025. Adjusted net income was $34.6 million USD, or $0.78 per diluted share, versus $43.1 million USD, or $0.92, in the prior-year quarter.

Cash provided by operating activities was $6.7 million USD, a significant decline from $46.9 million USD in Q1 2025, driven in part by a deliberate build-up of US-sourced aluminum inventories — up $34.3 million USD in the quarter — as part of the company’s tariff mitigation strategy. Capital expenditures of $17.3 million USD reflected scheduled payments tied to previously announced capacity and automation projects. During the quarter, Tecnoglass returned $16.5 million USD to shareholders through share repurchases and paid $6.7 million USD in cash dividends. As of May 7, 2026, approximately $92.5 million USD remained available under the current share repurchase program. The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $425.0 million USD, comprising $91.1 million USD in cash and cash equivalents and more than $330.0 million USD in revolving credit facility availability, against total debt of $200.3 million USD.

The company’s order backlog reached a record $1.36 billion USD at quarter-end, up 19.1% year-over-year, extending multi-family and commercial pipeline visibility into 2027. Tecnoglass cited continued expansion of its dealer network and showroom footprint as supporting geographic diversification and market share gains, with vinyl product lines identified as an incremental growth driver broadening the company’s addressable market.

José Manuel Daes, chief executive officer, commented on the results: “First quarter results were in line with our expectations, with resilient performance across our key metrics reflecting the continued strength of our vertically integrated business model despite a dynamic cost environment. Demand for our product offerings remains strong, as demonstrated by another quarter of record backlog and healthy order activity, with momentum continuing into the second quarter. Our previously announced pricing actions are now in place, and the broad-based nature of industry cost pressures supports our confidence in executing these increases while preserving our competitive positioning.”

Christian Daes, chief operating officer, addressed the tariff response and the company’s assessment of a potential US manufacturing presence. “Our pricing initiatives and cost mitigation efforts are well underway, including logistics improvements, further automation across our operations, and ongoing supply chain optimization,” he said. “We are also advancing our assessment of a proposed US manufacturing initiative, with a well-located site identified and significant state and local incentives secured that strengthen the project’s potential economics if we decide to move forward based on market demand.”

Santiago Giraldo, chief financial officer, reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance and outlined the company’s tariff offset timeline. “Based on our strong execution to start the year, we are reiterating our full year revenue outlook in the range of $1.06 billion to $1.13 billion USD and Adjusted EBITDA outlook in the range of $225 million to $245 million USD,” Giraldo said. “This reflects the impact of the recently implemented 10% tariff on finished aluminum window imports as previously disclosed, which is expected to be partly offset in 2026 through pricing actions effective on orders from early May forward, with additional efficiency initiatives from logistics optimization and automation underway and expected to begin contributing benefits by year end. We see a clear path to fully offsetting the impact of tariffs in 2027, when full-year pricing across both businesses and incremental automation savings are expected to be realized.”

On the corporate structure front, Tecnoglass’ board of directors has approved a plan to redomicile the company from the Cayman Islands to the United States, subject to shareholder approval. If approved, the redomiciliation is expected to be completed during Q2 2026. The company stated that the move is intended to simplify its organizational and regulatory structure, improve the tax efficiency of dividend distributions, and expand its potential investor base to include funds and accounts limited to US-domiciled securities. Tecnoglass will retain its Miami, Florida headquarters following the change.

Separately, the company is conducting a feasibility study for a potential new US manufacturing facility. A site meeting project specifications has been identified and substantial state and local tax credits have been secured. The proposed facility is described as highly automated and intended to support future growth while also improving lead times, reducing transportation costs for certain markets, enhancing supply chain efficiency, and enabling the company to compete for Buy America-eligible projects and rapid-turnaround contracts. Tecnoglass expects to complete the purchase of land for the potential facility during Q2 2026, at an estimated cost of $20 million to $25 million USD to be financed through available credit facilities. The company noted that the land purchase does not constitute a commitment to proceed with construction, which would occur in phases contingent on demand, market conditions, and return profiles. The company’s 5.8-million-square-foot vertically integrated manufacturing complex in Barranquilla, Colombia, would continue to serve as its primary production base.

Above photo: Tecnoglass facilities in Barranquilla

Colombia’s coffee-cacao export push generates 100+ tons in foreign sales

Colombia’s Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores convened ambassadors, international organizations, agricultural producers, and strategic partners in Bogotá on May 15, 2026, to present the Ruta del Café y Cacao, a government-led strategy that uses the diplomatic network to connect Colombian specialty coffee and cacao producers directly with international buyers, importers, and distributors. The session was organized in coordination with the Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP), Colombia Compra Eficiente, and the Servicio Nacional de Aprendizaje (SENA), with additional participation from the Agencia de Desarrollo Rural and the Unidad de Implementación del Acuerdo de Paz.

Between 2025 and 2026, the Ruta del Café y Cacao has participated in international trade fairs and multilateral venues in Asia, the Americas, and Europe, generating more than 1,200 commercial contacts and exports exceeding 100 tons. The strategy is coordinated through Colombia Nos Une, a directorate within the Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores that oversees relations with Colombian communities and commercial networks abroad.

“This strategy is not limited to the promotion of a product. It is a tool of economic diplomacy, productive inclusion, rural development, and peacebuilding.” — Rosa Yolanda Villavicencio Mapy, Minister of Foreign Relations of Colombia

Foreign Minister Rosa Yolanda Villavicencio Mapy used the event to outline the government’s rationale for embedding agricultural trade promotion into foreign policy. “From the Ministry of Foreign Relations, we want economic diplomacy to translate into concrete results for the territories,” she said. “Foreign policy must have the capacity to open opportunities, connect markets, and contribute to the productive development of our communities.” She added that the strategy extends beyond product promotion: “It is a tool of economic diplomacy, productive inclusion, rural development, and peacebuilding.”

Natalia Irene Molina Posso, director general of the Departamento Nacional de Planeación, presented the Café Social program as a related mechanism designed to strengthen small agricultural producers. The initiative links public procurement policy with territorial development and small-scale coffee farming, creating demand channels within Colombia’s public sector for domestically produced specialty coffee.

Gloria Cuartas Montoya, director of the Unidad de Implementación del Acuerdo de Paz, addressed the relationship between coffee and cacao production and post-conflict territorial transformation. “You have all the entities that have been working on the implementation of the Peace Agreement and in the new processes being carried out, so that territorial peace finds in these two [commodity] lines paths of enormous value and projection,” she said. Cuartas also referenced recent engagement in Barcelona, where business operators and organizations expressed interest in awareness-building activities around Colombian coffee and cacao, citing the social and community dimensions behind those products.

A central element of the event was the participation of producers and associations from multiple regions of Colombia, convened by the Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores through the Colombia Nos Une directorate. The participants included cooperatives and producer groups led by women, former combatants who signed the 2016 Peace Agreement, ethnic communities, and victims of the armed conflict. These groups presented their productive and commercial operations directly to diplomatic delegations attending the event.

The session also included a guided coffee tasting led by SENA’s Escuela Nacional del Café, during which attendees sampled specialty coffee varieties and received information on production processes and the characteristics that differentiate Colombian coffees participating in the Ruta del Café y Cacao. The tasting segment was designed to give diplomatic representatives direct exposure to the product profiles of the producers involved in the strategy.

Photo courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Relations of Colombia

GEB-La Caisse JV to rank among Brazil’s top five power transmitters

Grupo Energía Bogotá (BVC: GEB) and La Caisse, the investment arm of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, have signed a final agreement to merge their respective Brazilian power transmission assets into a single 50/50 jointly controlled platform operating under the name Verene Energia S.A. The transaction was announced May 15, 2026, from Montréal and Bogotá.

The combined entity will consolidate 26 electric transmission concession agreements, more than 9,000 km of transmission lines, and a workforce of over 400 employees across 17 Brazilian states. At that scale, Verene will rank among the five largest power transmission operators in Brazil, a market that has drawn sustained interest from international infrastructure investors as the country advances grid modernization programs.

Verene, which had previously operated as La Caisse’s dedicated transmission platform in Brazil, will continue as the reference vehicle for the combined portfolio. The partners have indicated that the platform will be positioned to pursue acquisitions and network expansions in Brazil’s transmission concession market, with grid modernization and decarbonization cited as the broader policy context driving new investment opportunities.

“By bringing together highly complementary assets under one banner, the partnership establishes Verene as a scaled, business-driven platform with strong financial backing.” — Emmanuel Jaclot, Executive Vice-President and Head of Infrastructure and Sustainability, La Caisse

Grupo Energía Bogotá, headquartered in Bogotá and listed on the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC: GEB), has operated in Latin America’s energy sector for more than 130 years. The company holds assets in electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and gas transportation and distribution across Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Guatemala. Its entry into the joint venture contributes its existing Brazilian transmission concessions to the merged platform alongside La Caisse’s Verene assets.

La Caisse manages net assets of 517 billion CAD as of December 31, 2025, on behalf of 48 depositors representing more than six million Quebecers. The fund is active across major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and private credit, and has built a significant infrastructure portfolio in Latin America through investments including the Verene platform.

Juan Ricardo Ortega, president of Grupo Energía Bogotá, described the rationale for the transaction in terms of combining complementary strengths. “By combining our operational expertise and regional market knowledge with the financial strength and global perspective of our partner, we are creating a platform positioned to accelerate growth, expand transmission energy infrastructure, and support Brazil’s energy transition,” he said. “We believe this alliance will generate sustainable value for our stakeholders and contribute to Brazil’s economic and energy development.”

Emmanuel Jaclot, executive vice-president and head of infrastructure and sustainability at La Caisse, framed the deal as a consolidation play. “By bringing together highly complementary assets under one banner, the partnership establishes Verene as a scaled, business-driven platform with strong financial backing,” Jaclot said. “GEB brings more than 130 years of operating heritage and ranks among Latin America’s leading energy infrastructure groups, with deep expertise across the region’s transmission sector. Together, we share a vision to strengthen Verene’s footprint in Brazil through value-creating acquisitions and continued support for the country’s energy transition.”

Financial close is expected by the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, regulatory consents, and approvals. BTG Pactual (BVMF: BPAC11) acted as financial advisor to La Caisse, with Pinheiro Neto Advogados serving as legal counsel. Citibank (NYSE: C) advised Grupo Energía Bogotá on the financial side, while Mayer Brown provided legal advice to GEB.

Colombia’s gross domestic product expanded 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of 2025, surpassing prevailing market estimates, according to data released May 16 by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) and presented by the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo. The results reflected positive performance across production, industry, and domestic commerce.

The manufacturing sector was among the quarter’s strongest contributors, posting year-over-year growth of 2.9% and adding 0.3 percentage points to the annual variation in GDP. The sector’s performance placed it among the primary drivers of national economic output for the period.

Within manufacturing, two subsectors recorded particularly pronounced gains. Motor vehicle production expanded 27.8% year-over-year, while metallurgy grew 6.6%. Both categories function as inputs to broader industrial supply chains, and their recovery carries implications for upstream and downstream productive linkages, including employment in skilled manufacturing roles.

“What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication.” — Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism of Colombia

Separate monthly data from statistical agency DANE’s índice de producción industrial (IPI) showed that real industrial output grew 3.9% in March 2026 compared to March 2025. The expansion was distributed across multiple subsectors, including motor vehicles, metallurgy, machinery and equipment, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber, plastics, and non-metallic minerals, indicating that the manufacturing recovery was not concentrated in a single production category.

Wholesale and retail trade expanded 6.0% in the first quarter, reflecting increased domestic market activity and business commerce. The trade sector’s performance complemented the manufacturing gains and contributed to the overall breadth of the quarter’s expansion.

Not all sectors contributed positively. Construction contracted 5.4% compared to the first quarter of 2025, the weakest result among major economic categories for the period. Public administration, defense, social security, education, and health services grew 5.7%, and reporting by Colombian media citing DANE data indicated that public spending accounted for approximately 46% of total first-quarter growth — a concentration that introduces a structural caveat to the headline figure, as private-sector momentum remains uneven across the economy.

Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, minister of the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo, addressed the composition of the results in a statement issued alongside the data release. “What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition,” she said. “The recovery of manufacturing, metallurgical, and industrial production activities demonstrates a greater role for sectors associated with transformation, productive capacity, and value-added generation within the national economic dynamic. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication. These are meaningful indicators of strengthening of the manufacturing structure and national production.”

The first-quarter data were released as Colombia continues to manage elevated monetary policy rates and fiscal pressures that have weighed on investment activity in recent quarters. The Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo indicated that the quarter’s results reflect progress on an agenda oriented toward strengthening industry, domestic production, and commercial activity, though the degree to which private-sector industrial recovery can sustain these gains independently of public spending remains a key variable for subsequent quarters.

Headline photo credit: Tecnoglass

As Colombia nears its presidential vote, two candidates have endorsed Iván Cepeda and eight others remain below 3.5% in polls

With less than two weeks remaining before Colombia’s presidential election, whose first round is scheduled for May 31, three candidates are concentrating most voter support and competing for access to the presidential palace, Casa de Nariño: ruling coalition senator Iván Cepeda, candidate of the left-wing Pacto Histórico party; senator Paloma Valencia, representing the right-wing Centro Democrático party; and lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella, a figure of Colombia’s far right.

Although 13 candidates will appear on the ballot, two contenders: Clara López and Luis Gilberto Murillo, withdrew their campaigns to support Cepeda, while the remaining candidates have failed to surpass 3.5% voter support in pre-elections polls, a figure close to the statistical margin of error.

If polling trends hold, no candidate is expected to secure the 50% plus one vote needed to win outright in the first round, making a runoff election on June 21, 2026, highly likely.

Cepeda has remained relatively stable in polls, with voter support ranging between 35% and 43%, effectively securing his place in a second round if trends continue.

The key question: Who will face Cepeda in a runoff?

The main electoral uncertainty centers on who will finish second and challenge the ruling coalition in a likely runoff.

Under Colombia’s electoral system, only the two candidates receiving the highest vote totals advance to the second round. The fragmentation of the political right has complicated efforts to consolidate support behind either Valencia or De la Espriella.

Polls suggest a competitive scenario. Valencia has registered between 14% and 21% voter support, while De la Espriella fluctuates between 16% and 24%, depending on the poll and methodology used.

The lack of unity between the two camps stems from both ideological differences and their political structures. Valencia is a member of the political party founded by former President Álvaro Uribe, while De la Espriella entered the race through an independent signature campaign, marking the first time Colombia’s far right has emerged as a viable contender for the presidency.

A campaign shaped by the absence of public debates

The presidential campaign has been marked by an unusual lack of debates among the leading candidates.

Cepeda has refused to participate in events organized by media outlets, arguing that proposed formats do not offer guarantees of neutrality or what he describes as “fair rules” established by news organizations.

As a result, part of the political confrontation has shifted to Congress, where both Cepeda and Valencia currently serve in the Senate.

Critics, however, have challenged Cepeda’s decision. Former Bogotá Mayor and presidential candidate Claudia López argued that his absence from debates reflects that “Cepeda does not want to take responsibility for the failures of Total Peace (Paz Total),” the negotiation policy with armed groups promoted by President Gustavo Petro, in which Cepeda played a key role as a lawmaker.

Instead of regular debates, the campaign has been dominated by disputes over media formats, digital presence, social media strategies and public controversies aimed at amplifying candidates’ visibility.

De la Espriella embraces confrontation

One of the candidates who has most effectively capitalized on the digital environment is Abelardo de la Espriella, whose political strategy has been compared to right-wing populist leadership styles such as those of Argentine President Javier Milei and US President Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, De la Espriella has faced several media controversies, including an incident involving journalist Laura Rodríguez of Piso 8 FM, for which he later apologized after accusations of inappropriate sexual conduct. He also clashed live on air with television presenter María Lucía Fernández of Caracol Noticias, whom he called “ignorant.”

Questions also emerged following reports by digital outlet La Silla Vacía regarding donations linked to the US Republican Party.

Despite the controversies, the strategy appears to be strengthening his electoral standing. An Atlas Intel poll for Semana magazine, published May 15, showed De la Espriella surpassing Valencia by a two-to-one margin for the first time, with 32.9% support compared with 16.7%.

However, the polling firm is currently under investigation by Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) amid concerns over whether its methodology complies with national standards. If irregularities are confirmed, the firm could face suspension of its operations in Colombia.

Valencia seeks to broaden support toward the political center

Meanwhile, Valencia has sought to expand her electoral base by shifting strategically toward the political center.

As part of that effort, on May 17 she officially introduced her proposal “Mámá No Está Sola (Mom Is Not Alone),” aimed at female heads of household and focused on access to credit, employment and housing property. The proposal also includes a promise to deliver 1 million homes prioritized for women community leaders.

Valencia’s candidacy also marks a historic first for Colombia’s political right: it is the first time a major conservative party has nominated a woman for president.

Her vice presidential running mate, former Bogotá councilman Juan Daniel Oviedo, has openly identified as a member of the LGBTQ+ community, a move that represents a significant shift for the Centro Democrático traditionally conservative electorate.

Colombia appears headed for a runoff

With a highly fragmented field and no signs of consolidation among right-wing candidates, Colombia appears increasingly likely to hold a presidential runoff on June 21, 2026.

Barring a major shift in polling trends, the contest seems set to come down to Iván Cepeda and whichever opposition candidate manages to emerge from an increasingly competitive battle within Colombia’s political right.

Roa had already been administratively sanctioned by Colombia’s electoral authority over campaign spending violations, with the case now advancing in the Attorney General’s Office

Ricardo Roa Barragán, president of Colombia’s state-owned oil and energy company Ecopetrol, has been formally charged by the Attorney General’s Office (FGN) over his alleged responsibility in a case involving violations of campaign spending limits tied to President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign, which Roa managed.

The charging hearing took place Monday, May 11, during which Roa pleaded not guilty. The case will continue through the investigative stage, and no conviction has been issued against him.

This marks the second criminal case facing the executive. On March 11, 2026, prosecutors also charged Roa with alleged influence peddling involving a public official. Both investigations remain ongoing.

Read: The charge adds to a separate investigation over alleged violations of campaign finance limits during President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign.

The latest charges come weeks after Ecopetrol’s board authorized Roa to take vacation leave followed by unpaid leave through June 28, 2026, after Colombia’s presidential elections conclude.

The decision means Roa would return to the company only to participate in the transition process with the team designated by Colombia’s next president, who will take office on August 7, 2026.

Read: Ecopetrol Announces Temporary Leave for President Ricardo Roa Amid Investigations by Colombia’s Attorney General’s Office” by Finance Colombia.

Under Articles 396A and 396B of Colombia’s Criminal Law, individuals found responsible for receiving, administering or allowing prohibited campaign funds may face prison sentences ranging from four to eight years, in addition to fines and disqualification from holding public office if convicted.

Roa, however, retains the presumption of innocence while the judicial process continues.

Investigation into campaign financing

The case stems from the 2022 “Petro Presidente” campaign, which Roa Barragán managed. The matter had already resulted in administrative sanctions from Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE), which concluded that the campaign exceeded legal financing limits.

The Attorney General’s Office also said it identified alleged inconsistencies in the campaign’s financial reporting, claiming that first-round expenses were reported during the second round and vice versa.

As a result of that administrative investigation, the CNE referred the case to the Attorney General’s Office, which is responsible for conducting criminal investigations.

According to a statement from prosecutors, collected evidence suggests that campaign spending limits “were exceeded by $1.388 billion COP (around $370,000 USD) during the first presidential round and by $276 million COP ($73,000 USD) during the runoff.”

Prosecutors said the allegedly unreported or improperly reported expenses were linked to “hotel press conferences, breakfasts, loans, transportation, logistics, food services, financing for campaign-closing events, advertising materials and union contributions.

The investigation formally began in 2025 after the CNE determined there were possible irregularities involving campaign spending caps.

Petro defends Roa

President Gustavo Petro again defended Roa and questioned the basis of the judicial investigation.

“The Attorney General’s Office is repeating the same thing as the compromised CNE: that expenses incurred after the legal campaign period ended, such as the costs parties incur for election monitors to protect votes (…) are campaign expenses. Their so-called overspending is not overspending,” Petro wrote on X.

The president argued that several of the questioned expenditures took place after election day, when, according to his interpretation, the campaign had already formally concluded.

A tariff dispute between Colombia and Ecuador escalated to 100% duties on Colombian imports after Ecuador cited a lack of cooperation on border security

The Andean Community of Nations (CAN) ordered Colombia and Ecuador to dismantle, within 10 business days, the trade restrictions and tariff measures imposed since late 2025, concluding that they violate the legal framework governing the regional bloc composed of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

The decision was adopted through three resolutions issued May 8, 2026, by the CAN General Secretariat, led by Gonzalo Gutiérrez Reinel, following an assessment of trade disputes that emerged between the two countries amid tensions related to border security and commerce.

The organization concluded that several measures implemented by Quito and Bogotá violate the Cartagena Agreement, the founding treaty of Andean integration, which prohibits restrictions on intraregional trade among member states.

More information about the “security tariff”: Colombia and Ecuador Escalate Trade Tensions with Tariffs Raised to 100%.

Ecuador ordered to lift border restrictions and “security tariff”

The first resolution, No. 2581, ruled in favor of Colombia in a complaint related to Ecuador’s decision to limit bilateral land trade to a single border crossing. The General Secretariat classified the measure as a “restriction on Andean subregional trade” and granted Ecuador 10 business days to withdraw it.

The resolution also urged both countries to strengthen bilateral cooperation on border security matters.

“To urge the Republic of Ecuador and the Republic of Colombia to strengthen bilateral cooperation and coordination mechanisms in border control (…) through joint actions, without affecting the normal development of subregional trade,” the organization stated in Resolution 2581.

Meanwhile, Resolution 2582 ordered Ecuador to eliminate the so-called “security tariff” imposed exclusively on Colombian imports, which initially stood at 30% and later escalated to 100%.

According to CAN, the measure violates the Trade Liberalization Program established under the Cartagena Agreement and constitutes a “disguised tariff.”

The General Secretariat concluded that the so-called Customs Control Service Fee (TSCA) or “security tariff” does not qualify as a legitimate fee because it does not compensate for an individualized service to importers, but instead finances general state functions related to intelligence and strategic security.

Ecuador was given a maximum of 10 business days to dismantle the measure and formally report compliance. So far, the government of President Daniel Noboa has not issued an official response to the resolutions.

CAN also orders Colombia to dismantle countermeasures

“I have no problem removing tariffs on Ecuadorian products in the same manner and timeline in which they were imposed,” Petro wrote on X after the ruling became public.

The third resolution, No. 2583, rejected the trade countermeasures adopted by Colombia in response to Ecuador.

The government of President Gustavo Petro had issued Decree 0170, later tightened through Decree 0455, imposing reciprocal tariffs ranging from 30% to 75% on Ecuadorian products and restricting the entry of rice, potatoes, onions, and fishery products through specific border crossings.

CAN concluded that these measures are also incompatible with Andean community regulations.

Trade dispute rooted in security tensions

The commercial dispute between the two countries intensified beginning in late 2025 and reached its peak in April 2026, when both governments progressively increased tariffs and trade restrictions, citing concerns related to border security and anti-narcotics enforcement.

The tensions particularly affected border regions, where business groups and transport operators warned of disruptions to trade flows and rising logistical costs.

CAN’s resolutions now seek to restore free trade conditions within the Andean bloc and reduce diplomatic tensions between two of its largest economies.

The Colombia-founded company has processed more than 100 million transactions and works with nearly 100 retailers and marketplaces

Instacart, a US grocery technology company serving more than 2,200 retail banners and nearly 100,000 stores, announced the acquisition of Instaleap, a Colombia-founded fulfillment and retail technology platform operating in nearly 30 countries, in a deal whose financial terms were not disclosed.

The transaction represents one of Instacart’s most significant international moves since going public in 2023 and strengthens its expansion outside North America, particularly in Latin America, Europe and the Middle East.

Instacart, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker CART, is seeking to expand its enterprise technology platform focused on omnichannel commerce and the digital transformation of supermarkets and retailers.

“We see a meaningful opportunity to expand internationally through an enterprise-led strategy that empowers retailers across the globe to meet the evolving omnichannel needs of their customers,” Ryan Hamburger, chief commercial officer at Instacart, said in the company’s statement.

Global expansion driven by Latin American technology

Instaleap develops software solutions for supermarkets, pharmacies and consumer goods retailers, enabling them to manage orders, logistics, picking operations and customer experience across digital channels.

The company has processed more than 100 million transactions and maintains commercial relationships with nearly 100 retailers and marketplaces outside North America, including Cencosud, Éxito, Makro, Continente, Jerónimo Martins (owners of Tiendas Ara), Lulu, and SPAR.

The acquisition also allows Instacart to accelerate its presence in regions where it previously had limited operations. The company had already begun deploying products such as Storefront Pro and its AI-powered Caper Carts in Europe and Australia but lacked a consolidated network in Latin America and the Middle East.

Instaleap to continue operating as subsidiary

According to the companies, Instaleap will initially continue operating as a wholly owned subsidiary of Instacart to ensure continuity for existing customers during the integration process.

“We’ve built our platform with a deep focus on the unique needs of grocery retailers across diverse international markets. Joining Instacart enables us to scale our impact with the support of a trusted partner that shares our commitment to retailer success,” said Antonio dos Santos Nunes, CEO and co-founder of Instaleap.

The company was founded in Colombia in 2019 by Portuguese entrepreneurs Antonio dos Santos Nunes and Margarida Freitas, the company’s current COO. Both joined the global entrepreneurship network Endeavor in 2025.

The companies did not disclose whether Instaleap’s current management team will remain in place after the transition period.

E-commerce growth fuels regional expansion

The announcement comes amid sustained growth in e-commerce across Latin America, particularly in Colombia.

According to figures cited in the statements, Colombian e-commerce grew 19.9% in 2025, reaching $684.6 million USD transactions, while the regional online grocery market surpassed $3.62 billion USD last year.

Instacart reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.09 billion USD in 2025, representing 23% year-over-year growth, along with 312 million processed orders.

With the acquisition, the company expects to gradually extend additional solutions to Instaleap’s clients, including e-commerce services, retail media, artificial intelligence and in-store technology.

Ecuador’s decision to lower tariffs starting June 1 could mark the beginning of a de-escalation in tensions with Colombia

The government of Ecuador, led by President Daniel Noboa, announced a reduction in the so-called “security tariff” applied to imports from Colombia, lowering it from 100% to 75% effective June 1, 2026.

The decision was announced in an official statement from Ecuador’s presidency, which said the measure “reaffirms the national government’s willingness to move toward bilateral cooperation mechanisms on security matters, promoting greater coordination between both countries and strengthening the development of the border region.”

More information about the “security tariff”: Colombia and Ecuador Escalate Trade Tensions with Tariffs Raised to 100%.

Political tensions and tariff dispute

Differences between the governments of Gustavo Petro and Noboa have escalated since 2025, driven by political, commercial and border security disagreements.

In April 2025, Petro initially said he could not recognize Noboa’s election, arguing that Ecuador’s electoral process had taken place “under a state of emergency” and with military presence during voting. However, he later reversed his position and attended Noboa’s inauguration ceremony on May 24, 2025, in Quito.

Since then, both countries have faced disputes related to border security, trade and energy transportation, leading to a gradual escalation in tariffs. Import duties increased progressively from 30% to 50% and later reached 100% on April 9, 2026.

Read: Colombia to Reinforce Border Security with Ecuador Amid Escalating Trade Tensions.

“Unfortunately, it is not possible to reach agreements with someone who does not share the same commitment to fighting narco-terrorism. Since we adopted this measure, violent deaths along the northern border have decreased by 33%. In the future, it will be possible to talk with a government that is truly committed to fighting crime and drug trafficking,” Noboa wrote on X on April 10, 2026, while defending the tougher trade measures.

Signs of de-escalation

The tariff reduction announced by Ecuador coincides with the Colombian government’s earlier decision not to raise its own tariffs to 100%, a move seen as a sign of moderation that could help ease diplomatic and commercial tensions between the two countries.

The dispute has particularly affected Colombian border regions such as Nariño and Cauca, which are already facing security challenges linked to the presence of illegal armed groups and recent violent attacks.

Read: Rising Violence in Colombia: Highway Explosion Leaves 21 Dead, Dozens Injured.

Colombia’s Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism, Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, said that “what we are seeing is that Ecuador’s initial strategy did not produce the expected effects on Colombia and instead generated distortions within its own trade system.”

In that regard, “Colombia has maintained and will continue to maintain a permanent willingness for technical dialogue and cooperation, with the same seriousness with which it adopts its policy decisions. Along that path, we are ready to move forward,” the minister added on X.

Meanwhile, Colombian Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio said during an interview broadcast by La FM that the government would seek to “resume dialogue with Ecuador in hopes of restoring relations, reducing those tariffs and returning to the trade flow we previously had.”

Despite 13 campaigns underway, only five candidates’ poll above 2.5% in voter intention

Colombia is heading toward the first round of presidential elections on May 31, 2026, with 13 candidates in the race, in a scenario marked by political fragmentation and a strong concentration of voter support among a few contenders.

The next president will take office on August 7, following the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term, marking the transition from the country’s first left-wing government in recent history.

According to pre-election polls, only five candidates exceed 2% in voter intention, leaving most with limited chances of reaching the presidential palace. Among the leading contenders are Iván Cepeda, the candidate of the ruling Pacto Histórico, who leads polls with between 35% and 43% support; right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, with between 16% and 24%; and Paloma Valencia of the Centro Democrático party, with between 14% and 21%.

A second group includes centrist candidates Claudia López, polling between 3% and 4%, and Sergio Fajardo, at around 2.5%, reflecting a fragmented vote within that political segment.

Vice presidential picks shape campaign strategies

As the campaign unfolds, candidates have selected their running partners as a key strategy to broaden their electoral appeal.

Iván Cepeda has chosen Aida Quilcué, an Indigenous Nasa leader from southwestern Colombia, reinforcing the campaign’s leftist profile and its emphasis on including historically marginalized communities in political decision-making.

Quilcué has served as a governor and Indigenous authority in her community and, like Cepeda, is a victim of Colombia’s armed conflict: her husband was killed by state agents in 2008. She has been affiliated with the Regional Indigenous Council of Cauca (CRIC) and the National Indigenous Organization of Colombia (ONIC). She presents herself publicly as an Indigenous leader, human rights defender and senator (2022–2026), without reporting formal higher education credentials.

Abelardo de la Espriella has selected former Finance, and Commerce, Industry and Tourism Minister, Juan Manuel Restrepo, as his running mate, forming a ticket focused on security and economic strengthening. “That is a capability I have because I understand productivity, competitiveness and economic development,” Restrepo told La Silla Vacía during his registration.

Restrepo is an economist with a specialization in finance from Rosario University, a master’s degree in economics from the London School of Economics, a specialization in senior management from INALDE Business School, and a doctorate in higher education leadership from the University of Bath. He has also served as rector of three major universities in Colombia.

Juan Daniel Oviedo, a former Bogotá city councilor, is running alongside Paloma Valencia of the Centro Democrático party. As economist from Universidad del Rosario, Oviedo holds a master’s degree in mathematical economics and econometrics and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Toulouse in France.

He previously served as head of Colombia’s National Statistics Agency (DANE) during the Iván Duque administration and ran for mayor of Bogotá in 2023.

His vice presidential bid gained momentum after securing more than 1.2 million votes in the March 8 inter-party primary, finishing second. His selection aims to attract centrist and center-right voters and strengthen Valencia’s chances of advancing to a potential runoff.

However, his nomination has sparked controversy, as it marks the first time the right-wing party has chosen a candidate with liberal positions on issues such as women’s rights and LGBTQ+ rights.

Claudia López selected Leonardo Huerta, a university professor of law and philosophy, as her running mate. According to Spain’s El País, he comes from “a working middle-class family,” is the youngest of four siblings, and is married with two children.

Huerta is a lawyer from Universidad Libre and holds a degree in philosophy from the Technological University of Pereira. He has a master’s degree in administrative law and is a doctoral candidate in law. His public sector experience includes serving as education secretary in Pereira and as a deputy ombudsman for health issues during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Sergio Fajardo selected Edna Bonilla as his running mate, reinforcing a campaign centered on education and dialogue. Bonilla previously served as Bogotá’s education secretary during Claudia López’s administration (2020–2023).

She is a public accountant from the National University of Colombia, holds a tax specialization from Externado University and a doctorate in political studies. During the campaign launch, Fajardo said: “We will work together to deliver the serious and safe change Colombia needs. To move beyond polarization and build bridges instead of trenches.”

Voter participation

According to Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, which oversees elections, a total of 41,421,973 citizens are eligible to vote in Colombia and abroad in the first round of the presidential election. Of these, 21,298,492 are women and 20,123,481 are men.

If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election will be held on June 21, 2026, between the top two candidates.

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National Health Superintendence oversees patients’ rights and regulates EPS insurers, a key pillar of the system that President Petro has sought to eliminate in his reform efforts

Former Medellín mayor and former presidential pre-candidate Daniel Quintero has been appointed as Colombia’s new National Superintendent of Health, a decision that has sparked controversy across political and social sectors due to ongoing judicial and disciplinary investigations against him.

The National Health Superintendence is responsible for safeguarding the rights of users within the health system, overseeing Health Promoting Entities (also called EPS) and Health Service Providers (IPS), and monitoring the use of public finances allocated to the sector, areas that President Gustavo Petro has sought to reform during his administration.

The appointment comes amid a complex situation in Colombia’s health system. During his administration, President Petro presented two structural reform proposals aimed at reshaping the system, including major changes to the role of EPS. Both initiatives were rejected by Congress.

Following these legislative setbacks, the government has pursued reforms through administrative measures and decrees, including the intervention of several of the country’s largest EPS, which together serve more than 23 million affiliates (More information: Colombian President Gustavo Petro Seeks To Restructure Colombian Health Care Despite Congressional Rejection by Finance Colombia).

During his swearing-in, Quintero said his administration would strengthen oversight of the system. “It is time to put an end to abuses by the EPS,” he said.

Criticism over qualifications and legal cases

The appointment has drawn criticism from organizations and political figures who question both his background as an electronic engineer and his legal situation. Transparency for Colombia said the designation “is inappropriate because it places a political figure widely questioned for using public office to favor private interests in charge of addressing the health crisis, instead of appointing individuals with the training, knowledge, and experience required to resolve it.”

The organization also called on the Attorney General’s Office to expedite ongoing investigations. “We respectfully call on the Attorney General’s Office (FGN) to ensure that cases involving Daniel Quintero move forward swiftly, respecting due process guarantees while delivering results in light of the seriousness of the allegations,” it said.

Quintero, who served as mayor of Medellín from 2020 to 2023, faces more than 40 criminal and disciplinary complaints related to alleged corruption during his administration. Among them is the “Aguas Vivas” case, involving the sale of a forest reserve land plot exceeding 140,000 square meters. In that case, prosecutors have already filed charges for alleged embezzlement, undue interest in public contracts, and misconduct in office, although no conviction has been issued.

Criticism has also emerged from within the government. Carlos Carrillo, head of Colombia’s National Unit for Disaster Risk Management, said that “Quintero is currently on trial for crimes against public administration. He has the right to defend himself, but the Pacto Histórico has no reason to bear the political cost of his legal troubles; we owe him nothing and he brings us nothing.”

Quintero will be the fifth health superintendent appointed during Petro’s administration. His tenure is expected to be temporary, as a new president will take office on August 7, 2026, and will have the authority to appoint a new head of the agency.

Petro’s “Total Peace” strategy is under pressure ahead of presidential elections as violence by armed groups escalates

An explosive attack on the Pan-American Highway near the municipality of Cajibío, in Colombia’s Cauca department, left at least 21 people dead and 56 injured, Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez Suárez confirmed.

The attack occurred Saturday, April 25, on one of the main roads in the country’s southwest, an area historically affected by the presence of illegal armed groups.

The minister attributed the attack to alias “Marlon,” described as one of the most wanted leaders in the region, “for whom we are offering a reward of up to $1.4 million USD,” he said.

According to local media reports cited by El Tiempo, “the attack was initially intended to target army troops. However, a change in military plans reportedly led to the explosive being detonated while civilians were passing through the area.”

The impact of the attack was significant. Spain’s El País reported “that the explosion created a large crater, left the road covered in debris, and forced rescue operations that lasted several hours due to difficult access conditions.”

Cauca Governor Octavio Guzmán described the incident as one of the most serious attacks in the region in decades. “What happened on April 25 constitutes the most brutal and ruthless attack against civilians in decades,” he said.

The attack comes amid a resurgence of violence in southwestern Colombia, where illegal armed groups linked to drug trafficking, illegal mining and other illicit economies operate. Authorities continue operations in the area as investigations proceed to clarify the circumstances of the attack and determine responsibility.

According to reports by BBC Mundo, alias “Marlon” is a dissident FARC leader identified as Iván Jacobo Idrobo Arredondo, “the alleged head of the Jaime Martínez structure, part of the Estado Mayor Central (EMC),” one of the country’s most powerful illegal armed groups.

Operations and arrests

As part of response operations, the National Police reported the capture of José Alex Bitoco, alias “David” or “Mi Pez,” identified as the leader of the Dagoberto Ramos structure, another illegal armed faction, who is believed to have acted under orders from alias “Marlon”.

National Police Director Gen. William Rincón Zambrano said the detainee “will have to answer for the wave of terrorist activity” and linked him directly to the attack, stating that “he is responsible for what happened on April 25 in the El Túnel sector on the Pan-American Highway.”

The Defense Ministry reiterated that alias “Marlon” remains a priority target. “He is a high-value target, and we are searching for him with all the capabilities of the state. We have deployed a dedicated intelligence task force to locate him,” Sánchez said, confirming a reward of up to $1.4 million USD for information leading to his capture.

Context: criticism of “Paz Total” policy (Total Peace)

The attack comes amid growing security deterioration in Colombia, intensifying criticism of President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” policy. The Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP) has warned of a possible failure of the strategy, noting that “less than four months before the end of the government, the lack of progress in peace negotiations and the deterioration of security have become one of the main points of criticism of the Petro administration.”

According to the think tank, during the current administration “the number of disputed territories between illegal actors has nearly doubled, and the number of members in these structures has increased by 85%: they now total more than 27,000 members, including armed individuals and support networks.”

This figure not only represents a significant increase but also places the country at levels similar to, and even higher than, those seen before the peace process with the FARC began. Between 2011 and 2012, the estimate stood at around 26,800 members, compared with 14,600 at the end of Iván Duque’s administration in 2022.

The recent increase has also been rapid. According to the FIP, armed groups grew by 23.5% over the past year (from December 2024 to December 2025), reflecting a swift reconfiguration of these structures. At the same time, violence has intensified. Analysts such as Professor Karol Solís Menco note that over the weekend of April 25–26 alone, “26 terrorist attacks of varying magnitude” were recorded across the country.

Political analysis outlets point to a structural dynamic. According to La Silla Vacía, “Cauca is not experiencing an isolated event, but rather a phase of intensifying territorialized violence, marked by fragmentation among armed actors and a type of violence capable of producing national-level impacts.”

In this context, FARC dissident groups have once again taken center stage in the conflict. “Once again, attention is turning to FARC dissidents. Every attack, every gas cylinder bomb, every assault in Valle and Cauca ends with the same name on the table: the Jaime Martínez structure, one of the strongest groups of Iván Mordisco’s Estado Mayor Central,” El País reported.

Violence indicators also reflect sustained deterioration. “In the first four months of 2026, Colombia has already recorded 48 massacres, with 229 victims, most of them civilians, according to Indepaz. It is the highest figure in the past decade. With these numbers, which represent only a partial picture of the country’s violence, this election year is shaping up to be the most violent since the 2016 peace agreement with the now-defunct FARC guerrilla group,” the same outlet reported.

Cauca, where the attack took place, is considered one of the most sensitive regions. “Cauca is particularly complex because it combines multiple layers of conflict: the historic presence of Indigenous, peasant and Afro-descendant communities; illicit economies; Pacific corridors; disputes over drug trafficking routes; control of the Pan-American Highway; and the presence of FARC dissidents, particularly structures linked to Iván Mordisco,” El País said.

Experts agree that part of the difficulty lies in the design and implementation of the government’s strategy. “Early implementation was a valuable innovation in intent, but it failed to ensure minimum conditions of verification and institutional coherence,” said analyst Germán Valencia of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (Pares).

Taken together, these factors have led various sectors to conclude that the “Total Peace” policy faces serious structural limitations amid a scenario of armed fragmentation and territorial expansion by illegal groups.

Despite the suspension being lifted, Wilmar Mejía has resigned from the intelligence agency and is set to lead the Financial Information and Analysis Unit (UIAF)

Colombia’s Inspector General’s Office (Procuraduría General de la Nación) has decided not to extend the three-month provisional suspension imposed on former Chief of the National Intelligence Agency (DNI), Wilmar Mejía, and Army General Juan Miguel Huertas, as part of a disciplinary investigation into alleged links with dissident factions of the former FARC guerrilla group.

Both officials had been temporarily removed from their positions after being mentioned in chats and documents found on devices belonging to alias “Calarcá,” one of the leaders of these illegal armed groups.

According to a document released by the Inspector General’s Office and published by the digital media La Silla Vacía, the “alleged conduct under investigation corresponds to events that occurred in 2024, when those involved were not yet public officials.” In that regard, the oversight body said it “will continue gathering evidence to determine whether such conduct extended into the period in which they held public office.”

“It is therefore necessary to continue the evidentiary process to establish whether the questioned conduct, in addition to being corroborated, extended into periods when those under investigation held public office,” the Inspector said in a statement.

Under Colombia’s legal framework, the Inspector General’s Office investigates public officials and individuals who manage public resources. If it is established that the alleged acts occurred prior to their appointment, the case would fall exclusively under the jurisdiction of the Attorney General’s Office (Fiscalía General de la Nación), which handles criminal investigations involving private citizens.

Ongoing investigation and background

The initial suspension was ordered on November 27, 2025, by the Inspector General’s Disciplinary Investigation Chamber and confirmed on December 23 of the same year, for a period of three months.

Later, at the end of March 2026, the National Intelligence Agency requested, by public communication, that the oversight body “clarify the scope of the measure,” which led to the recent decision not to extend the suspension, while the disciplinary investigation remains ongoing.

In parallel, the Attorney General’s Office continues investigations into the so-called “Calarcá case.” Attorney General Luz Adriana Camargo said there is “confirmed serious information from computers and cellphones about links between the group and a general and a DNI official,” according to statements reported by Caracol Noticias.

So far, no charges or convictions have been issued in connection with these cases.

Changes at the National Intelligence Agency

Amid the investigation, Wilmar Mejía confirmed his departure from the National Intelligence Agency on April 1, 2026, in an interview with Canal 1. “When the Inspector General’s Office lifted my suspension, I went to sign my reinstatement document and within 15 minutes I submitted my resignation. I am no longer the director of intelligence,” he said.

Following his resignation, President Gustavo Petro appointed him as director of the Financial Information and Analysis Unit (UIAF), the agency responsible for combating money laundering and terrorism financing in Colombia. The decision has drawn criticism, as Mejía remains linked to ongoing investigations by both the Inspector General’s Office and the Attorney General’s Office.

More information about the Colombia´s Intelligence Agency? Read “Colombia Intelligence Chief’s Resignation Exposes Instability and Possible Illegal Group Infiltration” by Finance Colombia.

Colombia navigates fiscal challenges following S&P rating revision.

In Colombia’s local fixed-income market, the Títulos de Tesorería (TES) fixed-rate curve appreciated across its entire structure over the last month. As of March, the total balance of TES in circulation stood at 747.9 trillion COP. Despite this positive market valuation, macroeconomic headwinds remain a central concern for the Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público. The fiscal balance of the Gobierno Nacional Central (GNC) reported an accumulated deficit of 1.7% of GDP through February.

These persistent fiscal imbalances were cited as the primary driver behind the recent decision by S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) to downgrade Colombia’s sovereign credit rating. The administration continues to manage these debt instruments against a backdrop of tight monetary conditions, which remain a primary focus for institutional investors holding Colombian sovereign paper.

Colombian fixed-income markets show valuation gains despite a recent S&P credit downgrade linked to ongoing fiscal imbalances.

The international fixed-income landscape experienced notable shifts between March 25 and April 23, 2026. The yield curve for US Treasury bonds displayed mixed performance, defined by a decrease in short-term rates and an increase in long-term yields. Analysts attribute this volatility primarily to conflicting signals regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Economic indicators released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that annual consumer inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated by 0.9 percentage points to reach 3.3% in March. This data triggered a rebound in short-term inflation expectations within the Treasury bond market, while medium and long-term outlooks remained stable. Consequently, the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) MOVE index—which tracks public debt market volatility—and the Cboe (NYSE: CBOE) VIX—which monitors S&P 500 equity volatility—both registered significant declines during the period.

Central bank hike aims to stabilize inflation amid global volatility.

The upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Banco de la República, scheduled for April 30, takes place as the balance of financial risks has shifted significantly compared to the first quarter of 2026. Analysts from Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB) expect the Junta Directiva to increase the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 12.00%.

The convergence of elevated inflation, recent reversal episodes, and misaligned market expectations has reinforced the perceived need for a restrictive monetary stance. This strategy aims to contain domestic demand while preserving the institutional credibility of the central bank. Unlike previous sessions, the current decision-making process is influenced by a shifting global environment where markets have moved toward a higher-for-longer interest rate scenario amid increased uncertainty.

Recent discussions regarding the participation of the Ministro de Hacienda in the Junta Directiva sessions have introduced an additional element of analysis. However, current assessments suggest this does not alter the fundamental policy diagnosis, and no disruptions to the decision-making process are anticipated. Monetary policy is expected to maintain consistency, with the strategic focus shifting from reaching a contractive level to determining the necessary duration of that posture.

Analysts project Banco de la República will raise rates to 12.00% to combat inflation despite slowing domestic economic growth.

The international economic context provides a mixed backdrop for the Colombian decision. Private sector activity in the US appeared to accelerate in April, following a 1.7% monthly increase in retail sales during March. In contrast, the Eurozone reported a contraction in economic activity during April. Energy markets have also seen volatility, with US crude inventories rising in the second week of April while gasoline stocks saw a significant decline. Furthermore, crude prices surged following reports of new security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.

Domestically, the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística reported that the Índice de Seguimiento a la Economía grew by 1.6% in February. While imports maintained growth during the same month, the urban unemployment rate across the 13 primary metropolitan areas continued a downward trend through March 2026. In the fixed income market, the central government reported debt levels at 64.2% of GDP for the first quarter, with internal debt accounting for 71.2% of that total.

Market movements reflected these broader trends as the US Treasury curve saw valuation increases driven by investor caution. In the region, Colombia, Brazil, and Uruguay emerged as the primary beneficiaries of the J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) GBI index rebalancing in March. Locally, fixed-rate Títulos de Tesorería experienced devaluations across the entire curve last week. According to the April Encuesta de Opinión Financiera, these devaluations are expected to persist in the coming months. In currency markets, the COP appreciated last week against a backdrop of global and local factors, while the Euro lost ground against the USD.

Headline photo: Bogotá headquarters of Banco de la República (Banrepublica). Photo credit Juan Enrique Rodríguez, courtesy Banrepublica

Despite the severity of the incident, Colombia and Peru have indicated a willingness to address it through diplomacy

 An incident on April 12, 2026, has reignited diplomatic and security tensions in the Amazon border region between Colombia and Peru, following an exchange of gunfire between a Colombian civilian vessel and the Marina de Guerra del Perú, a Peruvian Navy River unit, on the Putumayo River. The incident left one Colombian citizen dead and one person injured on each side.

The episode occurred near Marandúa (Amazonas, Colombia), across from the Peruvian town of El Estrecho. According to Colombia’s Defense Minister, Pedro Sánchez, the fatal victim was identified “as José Miguel Gutiérrez Baquero, owner of the cargo vessel involved in the incident, and one of his sons was injured,” while two other crew members were detained by Peruvian authorities.

Conflicting accounts of the operation

According to the Peruvian government statement, “the incident occurred during a patrol operation aimed at securing the electoral process,” previously coordinated between the two countries. Authorities said two Navy speedboats requested that the Colombian vessel stop for identification.

Peru’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is leading the process, said that “the Colombian vessel refused to comply with the control order and opened fire on two Peruvian Navy units, which returned fire.” As a result, “a member of the Peruvian Navy was also injured, although he is out of danger.”

Colombian authorities, led by the Foreign Ministry, have requested a full clarification of the events and verification of the circumstances surrounding the exchange of gunfire.

Diplomatic channels activated

Following the incident, the governments of Colombia and Peru activated diplomatic and military channels. Colombia’s defense minister said that “preliminary measures were agreed, including prioritizing medical attention for the injured, facilitating the work of judicial authorities, and establishing a binational commission to investigate what happened.”

Colombia’s Foreign Ministry formally requested clarification of “the circumstances of time, mode and place” of the attack, while the Peruvian government expressed its “willingness to cooperate and maintain border coordination mechanisms.”

The detained individuals “remain in the custody of the Fiscalía Provincial Mixta de Putumayo, with access to consular assistance and due process guarantees.”

So far, no final responsibilities have been determined, and both countries agree on the need for a thorough investigation. Both governments said the issue will be addressed at the next High-Level Mechanism on Security and Judicial Cooperation meeting, scheduled for May 2026 in Bogotá.

Context of prior tensions

The incident comes amid sensitive bilateral relations. In recent months, Colombia and Peru have had disagreements over territorial issues in the Amazon, particularly regarding Santa Rosa de Loreto island.

The dispute dates back to August 5, 2025, when President Gustavo Petro said on X that the “government of Peru has taken over territory that belongs to Colombia” and alleged a “violation of the Rio de Janeiro Protocol, which defines the boundaries between the two countries.”

“The Rio de Janeiro Protocol established that the border is the deepest channel of the Amazon River and that any dispute must be resolved between the parties,” Petro said, referring to the emergence of new river islands “north of the current deepest channel,” which, according to his position, should belong to Colombia.

In response, Peru’s Foreign Ministry expressed its “strongest and most forceful protest,” stating that the island, home to about 3,000 residents, mostly Peruvians, is part of its territory and is key to regional river trade.

Tensions escalated days later when then-presidential pre-candidate Daniel Quintero traveled to the island and raised a Colombian flag during a campaign event broadcast on social media, saying: “I will not allow them to take the Amazon from us. Santa Rosa is Colombia.”

The Peruvian government described the act as an “unnecessary action” that “distracts from the cooperation efforts that Peru and Colombia must prioritize to jointly address urgent challenges.”

Headline photo: President Gustavo Petro, Vice President Francia Márquez and Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez at an event held in Leticia (Amazonas) to address tensions with Peru, Aug. 7, 2025. Photo courtesy of Colombia’s Ministry of Defense.

Colombia’s Defense Ministry detailed a plan to bolster security along the Ecuador border

Colombia’s government has announced a package of measures to strengthen security in municipalities along the border with Ecuador, amid escalating tensions between the two countries over security and trade issues.

According to a statement released by the presidency, the actions include “the deployment of 200 additional National Police officers and 270 soldiers, as well as enhanced maritime and riverine capabilities for territorial control and the fight against drug trafficking.”

The plan also includes technical support for surveillance systems, the deployment of two armored platoons to ensure troop mobility, and meetings aimed at strengthening joint operations by security forces and control at border crossings.

Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez announced the measures, stating that “we will not allow criminal groups seeking to profit from illegal activities such as drug trafficking, illegal mining, extortion and smuggling to affect security indicators.”

He added that security forces have already seized 2.4 tons of drugs and remain deployed in the region “to protect our seas and critically disrupt drug trafficking.”

Context: security and trade tensions

The measures come days before Ecuador’s tariff increase takes effect, raising the so-called “security tariff” on Colombian goods from 50% to 100% starting May 1, 2026.

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa told Revista Semana magazine that the decision is not part of a “trade war” with Colombia but rather reflects the costs of reinforcing border security. “We have to spend twice as much, and it costs $400 million USD more per year to keep our armed forces deployed at the border,” he said.

For its part, Colombia’s government has rejected claims of insufficient action on border security. Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism Diana Marcela Morales Rojas said Colombia has kept diplomatic channels open.

“We have exhausted all diplomatic efforts and maintained open dialogue channels with the Government of Ecuador, seeking a solution that benefits both countries, businesses and, above all, communities on both sides of the border. However, we have not received a positive response,” she said in a statement.

At the same time, Colombia is evaluating its tariff response. Although President Gustavo Petro previously said he would not impose 100% tariffs on Ecuador, a draft update to Decree 170 of 2026 has recently emerged proposing differentiated tariffs of 35%, 50% and 75% on imports from the neighboring country. So far, the proposal has not been signed or officially published.

More information on the trade dispute between Colombia and Ecuador? Read Trade War Between Colombia And Ecuador Escalates, With 50% Tariffs Threatened by Finance Colombia.

EU-Colombia alliance prioritizes digital investment and AI growth.

Colombia’s Centro de Innovación, Productividad y Desarrollo Tecnológico (CINTEL) has announced that the European Union will serve as the guest of honor for the ANDICOM 2026 technology congress. This 41st edition of the regional digital conference is scheduled to take place from September 2 to September 4, 2026, in Cartagena, with preliminary activities beginning on September 1 at the Hotel Faranda Collection.

The European Union currently stands as the largest foreign technology investor in Colombia. According to figures provided by CINTEL, the 27-member economic bloc accounts for 22% of the direct investment in the nation’s tech sector and has been responsible for the generation of approximately 120,000 jobs.

“ANDICOM is a strategic opportunity to strengthen cooperation, drive European investments in the region, and advance a joint agenda that promotes digital transformation.” — François Roudié, European Union Ambassador to Colombia.

“The participation of the European Union in ANDICOM 2026 reflects a shared vision regarding the importance of digital transformation as a driver of economic and social development,” said Manuel Martínez, Executive Director of CINTEL. “This alliance allows us to connect Colombia and Latin America with one of the most advanced ecosystems in the world in terms of innovation, investment, and technological development.”

The 2026 event will center on the theme “Unleashing the Power of AI.” The academic agenda is designed to explore the impact of artificial intelligence on business productivity, national competitiveness, and the digital transformation of public institutions. The primary sessions will be held at the Complejo Las Américas.

François Roudié, the European Union Ambassador to Colombia, noted that the partnership highlights the bilateral commitment to a digital economy that is secure and human-centric. The ambassador emphasized that the conference serves as a strategic platform to strengthen European investments in the region and advance a joint agenda for sustainable growth.

Founded in 1991, CINTEL was recently re-certified as a Centro de Innovación y Productividad by the Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (MinCiencias) through a resolution issued in February 2026. The center remains a key component of the Colombian Sistema Nacional de Ciencias, Tecnología e Innovación, focusing on the application of information and communication technologies to improve regional productivity.

Above photo: CINTEL’s Manuel Martinez (left)0 with the EU’s François Roudié.

 

Medellín AI Summit outlines strategic growth for global investors.

The city of Medellín is scheduled to host the second edition of the “WOBI on AI and Business Transformation” summit on April 28, 2026. The event, which will take place at Plaza Mayor, represents the sixth major collaboration between the Alcaldía de Medellín and WOBI since the partnership began in 2017. This year’s forum focuses on the integration of artificial intelligence into corporate leadership and operational strategy, reinforcing the city’s status as a Special District of Science, Technology, and Innovation.

Martha Lucía Maldonado Nieto, Managing Director of WOBI Colombia, detailed the evolution of the event series, noting that previous editions held between 2017 and 2019 attracted more than 4,300 business owners. “Since last year, we have shifted these digital transformation conversations toward an unavoidable topic: Artificial Intelligence,” Maldonado stated. She emphasized that the summit is designed to analyze how AI supports macro-management themes rather than providing purely technical instruction. “WOBI is not about providing technical content. Our goal isn’t to teach people how to operate a specific AI tool, but rather to support them in their roles as leaders.”

“We are certain that only by sensitizing our leaders will we achieve real changes in organizations.” — María Fernanda Galeano Rojo

The upcoming summit features a lineup of international speakers covering diverse facets of the technology. Terry Gutiérrez, the General Manager for Tesla (TSLA) in Mexico and Latin America, will present on leadership algorithms. Nathan Furr, a professor at INSEAD, is set to discuss using AI to scale business models. Other speakers include marketing expert Giuseppe Stigliano and Andrew Mayne, a former prompt engineer at OpenAI, who will provide insights into the development of ChatGPT. Maldonado noted that the curation of this content is managed by WOBI’s team in New York to identify global trends relevant to executive decision-making.

María Fernanda Galeano Rojo, the Secretary of Economic Development for Medellín, will also address the assembly on the role of “Cities that Think.” Galeano Rojo highlighted the city’s commitment to ensuring high-level technological discourse reaches multiple sectors of the local economy. “We will have 600 leaders, more than 70% of whom will be from our city,” Galeano Rojo said. “At the same time, we will have parallel activities where we will be talking with these same speakers, as well as with entrepreneurs and university students. What we want is for all this knowledge to reach different sectors of our city.”

The event structure has transitioned to a membership model as of 2024, though individual tickets remain available. Maldonado confirmed that the average cost for participation is approximately $1,990,000 COP. The summit aims to build on the success of the inaugural AI edition, which saw 800 attendees from 350 companies and has since been exported to Madrid and Milan. “Artificial Intelligence is not just another trend; it is a new reality,” Maldonado added. “It is going to change and impact us in much the same way that the internet at some point changed the way we function.”

The Secretaría de Desarrollo Económico continues to prioritize digital skills and AI training as part of its broader economic strategy. According to Galeano Rojo, the objective of the Alcaldía de Medellín is to use these international platforms to drive social and organizational transformation. “We are betting on digital skills training and AI training,” she remarked. “We are certain that only by sensitizing our leaders will we achieve real changes in organizations.”

The one-day academic session will begin at 9:00 AM. Key regional entities including Rappi, McKinsey, and Procter & Gamble (PG) were cited as background for the expertise being brought to the stage, reflecting the professional trajectories of the invited speakers.