Refining margin surge cushions revenue drop amid leadership void

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC, BVC: ECOPETROL) reported first-quarter 2026 consolidated revenues of 28.6 trillion COP, a decline of 8.7% from 31.4 trillion COP in the year-earlier period, as lower crude oil prices and reduced hydrocarbon production compressed the top line for Colombia’s state-controlled oil and gas company. Against that backdrop, a marked recovery in refining margins and disciplined cost management lifted EBITDA by 1.5% to 13.5 trillion COP, yielding a 47% EBITDA margin and partially offsetting the revenue headwind. At the Q1 2026 average exchange rate of approximately 3,700 COP per USD, the quarter’s revenues translate to roughly $7.73 billion USD and EBITDA to approximately $3.65 billion USD.

Net income for the quarter reached 2.9 trillion COP (approximately $784 million USD), down 7.7% year-over-year, reflecting the combined drag of lower revenues, a sharply elevated effective tax rate of 37.1%, and a one-time charge of 1.2 trillion COP for the impuesto al patrimonio — Colombia’s government-mandated wealth levy on large corporations established to fund post-disaster reconstruction measures. The company is also subject to a 10% income tax surcharge applicable for fiscal year 2026, which is embedded in the reported effective rate. The aggregate tax burden absorbed a disproportionate share of operating improvement relative to prior periods, limiting the flow-through of refining gains to the net income line.

Total hydrocarbon production averaged 725.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboed) in Q1 2026, below the 745 kboed recorded in the 2025 annual average cited by management during the March 2026 general shareholders’ meeting. Domestic crude output represented the largest component at approximately 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd). Ecopetrol’s Permian Basin operations in the United States contributed 91.8 kbd, underscoring the continued strategic importance of the international segment. Gas production continued a multi-year declining trend that poses a medium-term domestic supply challenge; management has sought to address this partially through regasification capacity additions at Puerto Bahía and on the Pacific coast, expected to come online in the second half of 2026 with a combined contribution of up to 430 billion BTU per day.

The refining segment delivered the quarter’s most pronounced operational outperformance. Ecopetrol’s domestic refineries, led by Refinería de Cartagena, processed 417.5 kbd of crude throughput. The integrated refining margin rose to $17.3 USD per barrel, a 60% improvement over the same quarter of 2025, driven by favorable differential pricing between domestic crude benchmarks and refined product values alongside ongoing operational efficiency improvements. The Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas (CREG) and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía remain central to the regulatory framework governing downstream margins over the medium term.

The balance sheet carries significant structural and contingent risk items of direct relevance to institutional credit and equity holders. Gross debt stood at 108.1 trillion COP (approximately $29.2 billion USD), representing a leverage ratio of 2.3 times trailing EBITDA — a level that leaves limited room for further deterioration before debt covenants or rating agency thresholds become binding. Ecopetrol holds a receivable of 4.2 trillion COP (approximately $1.14 billion USD) from the Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles (FEPC), a government fuel price stabilization mechanism that represents a claim on the Colombian treasury with timing and recovery risk. A dispute with the Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales (DIAN) over value-added tax assessments totals 12.26 trillion COP (approximately $3.31 billion USD) in aggregate, of which 10.22 trillion COP relates to Ecopetrol’s consolidated operations and 2.04 trillion COP to Refinería de Cartagena. Both cases are under administrative and judicial review; no provisions have been recognized in the financial statements pending resolution, but the potential liability represents a material contingency relative to the company’s quarterly net income.

On the corporate development front, Ecopetrol disclosed three significant transactions during or following the quarter. The company agreed to acquire producing assets from Gran Tierra Energy (NYSE: GTE, TSX: GTE) for $92.4 million USD, adding Colombian upstream production inventory in basins where both companies have operated. In Brazil, Ecopetrol launched a tender offer for shares of Brava Energia (BVMF: BRAV3) at 23 BRL per share, seeking to expand its footprint in that country’s oil and gas sector. And in a transaction that would reshape the mid-size independent landscape in Colombia, the company reached an agreement to acquire Parex Resources (TSX: PXT) for $250 million USD; Parex is a Colombia-focused producer with a complementary asset base across the Llanos and other producing basins. Collectively, the three transactions signal that Ecopetrol’s capital allocation strategy under the current government continues to favor upstream consolidation despite the elevated leverage profile.

The exploration portfolio generated positive news announcements. The Copoazú-1 exploratory well, drilled in Colombia’s Llanos foothills region, was confirmed as a commercial discovery, adding to the domestic reserve base. The Sirius offshore project advanced through the Consulta Previa process — a legally mandated prior consultation with indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities required before development of projects in or near their territories — reaching a milestone in community engagement that brings the project closer to formal development sanction. The Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH) oversees the licensing framework within which both projects operate.

“Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” — Martín Ravelo, President, Unión Sindical Obrera (USO)

The ISA transmission segment, managed through Ecopetrol’s majority stake in ISA — Interconexión Eléctrica S.A., contributed stable regulated cash flows during the quarter. ISA completed 46 transmission reinforcement works across its Latin American concession portfolio. The segment also completed the acquisition of 100% of IE Madeira in Brazil, consolidating its position in that country’s power grid interconnection infrastructure. ISA further submitted a competitive bid for the Río Bueno–Puerto Montt high-voltage transmission line concession in Chile, demonstrating the group’s appetite for long-duration, inflation-linked infrastructure assets across the Andes region. For institutional investors evaluating Ecopetrol as a blended hydrocarbons-and-infrastructure holding, ISA’s consistent cash generation provides partial diversification from crude price volatility, though it does not insulate the consolidated entity from headline governance risk.

The most consequential variable for the investment thesis over the near term is Ecopetrol’s prolonged governance crisis. At the company’s general shareholders’ meeting on March 27, 2026, held at the Corferias convention center in Bogotá, minority shareholders loudly heckled president Ricardo Roa — with audible shouts of “¡Fuera, fuera!” reverberating through the hall — as debate over his leadership erupted into open confrontation. The meeting approved a dividend of 121 COP per share for minority holders and a 4 trillion COP distribution to the Colombian government as majority shareholder, payable in two installments by June 30, 2026. Despite the financial business conducted, governance overshadowed the proceedings.

Roa faces two separate judicial proceedings. The Fiscalía General de la Nación formally charged him in connection with alleged influence peddling related to the purchase of an apartment in northern Bogotá — charges he has denied. Separately, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) is examining whether campaign spending limits were violated during President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign, which Roa managed — an investigation that Finance Colombia has covered in detail. Angela Maria Robledo, Chair of the Board of Directors, defended the board’s decision to retain Roa at the March assembly, citing the constitutional presumption of innocence. However, four of the nine board members had already formally recorded their support for his removal at that point, exposing a divided governance structure at a time when strategic and operational decisions require unified leadership.

The Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), which represents approximately one-third of Ecopetrol’s workforce, issued a production strike ultimatum timed to a March 30 board meeting. Martín Ravelo, president of the USO, framed the leadership crisis explicitly in terms of US regulatory risk: “Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” Ravelo further warned that the company’s outstanding international debt — which he placed at approximately $30 billion USD and which is exacerbated by elevated interest rates — left Ecopetrol exposed to potential covenant triggers or early repayment demands in a scenario where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Office of Foreign Assets Control were to take enforcement action.

Following sustained pressure from the USO, minority shareholders, and opposition political figures, Ecopetrol’s board approved an extended leave of absence for Roa beginning April 7, 2026. Under the arrangement, Roa used accrued vacation through May 27, followed by 30 calendar days of unpaid leave beginning May 28, extending his absence through the end of June — a period encompassing Colombia’s presidential first round on May 31 and a potential runoff on June 21. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra, the company’s executive vice president of hydrocarbons and designated first alternate to the presidency since November 2025, was appointed acting president. Hurtado Parra holds an MBA in International Oil and Gas and brings more than 28 years of energy sector experience to the acting role, having previously served as vice president of exploration, development, and production.

The political calendar creates a structural transition risk that sits above the operational and financial results as the primary concern for long-duration investors. Colombia’s incoming government, to be inaugurated August 7, 2026, is widely expected to appoint a new Ecopetrol board and select a new company president. That transition may bring material shifts in strategic priorities — including the pace of upstream investment, the approach to the FEPC receivable recovery, the trajectory of energy transition spending, and the capital allocation balance between the hydrocarbons segment and the ISA infrastructure platform. The Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía will both play key roles in establishing the post-election policy framework under which Ecopetrol operates. Institutional investors holding exposure to Ecopetrol via NYSE: EC or BVC: ECOPETROL must weigh Q1’s genuine operational improvement — most visibly in refining margins and EBITDA stability — against a governance and policy transition risk profile that is unlikely to be resolved before the August handover.

Ecopetrol’s Cartagena refinery (photo courtesy Ecopetrol)

Tariff headwinds compress Tecnoglass margins despite record Q1 sales

Tecnoglass, Inc. (NYSE: TGLS) reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $249.0 million USD, a 12.0% year-over-year increase and a first-quarter record for the Barranquilla, Colombia-based window and architectural glass manufacturer. Despite the top-line growth, net income fell to $31.9 million USD, or $0.71 per diluted share, from $42.2 million USD, or $0.90 per diluted share, in the same period of 2025, as elevated US aluminum costs linked to import tariffs, mandatory minimum wage increases in Colombia, and a strengthening Colombian peso combined to compress gross margins by 540 basis points to 38.5%.

Multi-family and commercial revenues rose 20.4% year-over-year, driven by continued activity across key markets including geographies beyond Florida, which has historically dominated the company’s US revenue mix. Single-family residential revenues were relatively flat on a year-over-year basis, with management attributing the result to the timing of order conversion into revenue rather than underlying demand, noting that order growth in the segment remained positive into April 2026. On a geographic basis, the US accounted for $237.1 million USD, or approximately 95% of total revenues, up 11.6%. Colombia generated $7.5 million USD, up 17.2%, and other international markets contributed $4.4 million USD, up 27.3%.

Gross profit declined to $95.8 million USD from $97.5 million USD in Q1 2025 despite the higher revenue base. The company cited an unfavorable revenue mix driven by a greater proportion of installation-related revenue, higher raw material costs — with US aluminum tariffs representing an incremental headwind of approximately $6.4 million USD in the quarter — higher salary expenses resulting from annual minimum wage adjustments in Colombia, and the effect of a stronger Colombian peso on costs incurred locally. Pricing actions and operating leverage on higher volume partly offset these pressures.

“We see a clear path to fully offsetting the impact of tariffs in 2027, when full-year pricing across both businesses and incremental automation savings are expected to be realized.” — Santiago Giraldo, Chief Financial Officer, Tecnoglass

Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $50.9 million USD, or 20.4% of revenues, from $42.5 million USD, or 19.1%, in Q1 2025. The increase reflected higher personnel costs from annual salary adjustments, peso appreciation, and higher transportation and commission costs tied to revenue growth. The period also included a one-time charge of $2.9 million USD related to Colombia’s *impuesto al patrimonio*, a government-imposed wealth tax levied on large corporations to fund measures addressing recent climate-related events in the country.

Adjusted EBITDA — which excludes non-cash foreign exchange gains and losses, the bad-debt provision, non-recurring charges, and equity-method adjustments related to the company’s joint venture in Vidrio Andino with Saint-Gobain (EPA: SGO) — came in at $61.5 million USD, or 24.7% of total revenues, compared to $70.2 million USD, or 31.6%, in Q1 2025. Adjusted net income was $34.6 million USD, or $0.78 per diluted share, versus $43.1 million USD, or $0.92, in the prior-year quarter.

Cash provided by operating activities was $6.7 million USD, a significant decline from $46.9 million USD in Q1 2025, driven in part by a deliberate build-up of US-sourced aluminum inventories — up $34.3 million USD in the quarter — as part of the company’s tariff mitigation strategy. Capital expenditures of $17.3 million USD reflected scheduled payments tied to previously announced capacity and automation projects. During the quarter, Tecnoglass returned $16.5 million USD to shareholders through share repurchases and paid $6.7 million USD in cash dividends. As of May 7, 2026, approximately $92.5 million USD remained available under the current share repurchase program. The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $425.0 million USD, comprising $91.1 million USD in cash and cash equivalents and more than $330.0 million USD in revolving credit facility availability, against total debt of $200.3 million USD.

The company’s order backlog reached a record $1.36 billion USD at quarter-end, up 19.1% year-over-year, extending multi-family and commercial pipeline visibility into 2027. Tecnoglass cited continued expansion of its dealer network and showroom footprint as supporting geographic diversification and market share gains, with vinyl product lines identified as an incremental growth driver broadening the company’s addressable market.

José Manuel Daes, chief executive officer, commented on the results: “First quarter results were in line with our expectations, with resilient performance across our key metrics reflecting the continued strength of our vertically integrated business model despite a dynamic cost environment. Demand for our product offerings remains strong, as demonstrated by another quarter of record backlog and healthy order activity, with momentum continuing into the second quarter. Our previously announced pricing actions are now in place, and the broad-based nature of industry cost pressures supports our confidence in executing these increases while preserving our competitive positioning.”

Christian Daes, chief operating officer, addressed the tariff response and the company’s assessment of a potential US manufacturing presence. “Our pricing initiatives and cost mitigation efforts are well underway, including logistics improvements, further automation across our operations, and ongoing supply chain optimization,” he said. “We are also advancing our assessment of a proposed US manufacturing initiative, with a well-located site identified and significant state and local incentives secured that strengthen the project’s potential economics if we decide to move forward based on market demand.”

Santiago Giraldo, chief financial officer, reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance and outlined the company’s tariff offset timeline. “Based on our strong execution to start the year, we are reiterating our full year revenue outlook in the range of $1.06 billion to $1.13 billion USD and Adjusted EBITDA outlook in the range of $225 million to $245 million USD,” Giraldo said. “This reflects the impact of the recently implemented 10% tariff on finished aluminum window imports as previously disclosed, which is expected to be partly offset in 2026 through pricing actions effective on orders from early May forward, with additional efficiency initiatives from logistics optimization and automation underway and expected to begin contributing benefits by year end. We see a clear path to fully offsetting the impact of tariffs in 2027, when full-year pricing across both businesses and incremental automation savings are expected to be realized.”

On the corporate structure front, Tecnoglass’ board of directors has approved a plan to redomicile the company from the Cayman Islands to the United States, subject to shareholder approval. If approved, the redomiciliation is expected to be completed during Q2 2026. The company stated that the move is intended to simplify its organizational and regulatory structure, improve the tax efficiency of dividend distributions, and expand its potential investor base to include funds and accounts limited to US-domiciled securities. Tecnoglass will retain its Miami, Florida headquarters following the change.

Separately, the company is conducting a feasibility study for a potential new US manufacturing facility. A site meeting project specifications has been identified and substantial state and local tax credits have been secured. The proposed facility is described as highly automated and intended to support future growth while also improving lead times, reducing transportation costs for certain markets, enhancing supply chain efficiency, and enabling the company to compete for Buy America-eligible projects and rapid-turnaround contracts. Tecnoglass expects to complete the purchase of land for the potential facility during Q2 2026, at an estimated cost of $20 million to $25 million USD to be financed through available credit facilities. The company noted that the land purchase does not constitute a commitment to proceed with construction, which would occur in phases contingent on demand, market conditions, and return profiles. The company’s 5.8-million-square-foot vertically integrated manufacturing complex in Barranquilla, Colombia, would continue to serve as its primary production base.

Above photo: Tecnoglass facilities in Barranquilla

Colombia’s coffee-cacao export push generates 100+ tons in foreign sales

Colombia’s Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores convened ambassadors, international organizations, agricultural producers, and strategic partners in Bogotá on May 15, 2026, to present the Ruta del Café y Cacao, a government-led strategy that uses the diplomatic network to connect Colombian specialty coffee and cacao producers directly with international buyers, importers, and distributors. The session was organized in coordination with the Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP), Colombia Compra Eficiente, and the Servicio Nacional de Aprendizaje (SENA), with additional participation from the Agencia de Desarrollo Rural and the Unidad de Implementación del Acuerdo de Paz.

Between 2025 and 2026, the Ruta del Café y Cacao has participated in international trade fairs and multilateral venues in Asia, the Americas, and Europe, generating more than 1,200 commercial contacts and exports exceeding 100 tons. The strategy is coordinated through Colombia Nos Une, a directorate within the Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores that oversees relations with Colombian communities and commercial networks abroad.

“This strategy is not limited to the promotion of a product. It is a tool of economic diplomacy, productive inclusion, rural development, and peacebuilding.” — Rosa Yolanda Villavicencio Mapy, Minister of Foreign Relations of Colombia

Foreign Minister Rosa Yolanda Villavicencio Mapy used the event to outline the government’s rationale for embedding agricultural trade promotion into foreign policy. “From the Ministry of Foreign Relations, we want economic diplomacy to translate into concrete results for the territories,” she said. “Foreign policy must have the capacity to open opportunities, connect markets, and contribute to the productive development of our communities.” She added that the strategy extends beyond product promotion: “It is a tool of economic diplomacy, productive inclusion, rural development, and peacebuilding.”

Natalia Irene Molina Posso, director general of the Departamento Nacional de Planeación, presented the Café Social program as a related mechanism designed to strengthen small agricultural producers. The initiative links public procurement policy with territorial development and small-scale coffee farming, creating demand channels within Colombia’s public sector for domestically produced specialty coffee.

Gloria Cuartas Montoya, director of the Unidad de Implementación del Acuerdo de Paz, addressed the relationship between coffee and cacao production and post-conflict territorial transformation. “You have all the entities that have been working on the implementation of the Peace Agreement and in the new processes being carried out, so that territorial peace finds in these two [commodity] lines paths of enormous value and projection,” she said. Cuartas also referenced recent engagement in Barcelona, where business operators and organizations expressed interest in awareness-building activities around Colombian coffee and cacao, citing the social and community dimensions behind those products.

A central element of the event was the participation of producers and associations from multiple regions of Colombia, convened by the Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores through the Colombia Nos Une directorate. The participants included cooperatives and producer groups led by women, former combatants who signed the 2016 Peace Agreement, ethnic communities, and victims of the armed conflict. These groups presented their productive and commercial operations directly to diplomatic delegations attending the event.

The session also included a guided coffee tasting led by SENA’s Escuela Nacional del Café, during which attendees sampled specialty coffee varieties and received information on production processes and the characteristics that differentiate Colombian coffees participating in the Ruta del Café y Cacao. The tasting segment was designed to give diplomatic representatives direct exposure to the product profiles of the producers involved in the strategy.

Photo courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Relations of Colombia

GEB-La Caisse JV to rank among Brazil’s top five power transmitters

Grupo Energía Bogotá (BVC: GEB) and La Caisse, the investment arm of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, have signed a final agreement to merge their respective Brazilian power transmission assets into a single 50/50 jointly controlled platform operating under the name Verene Energia S.A. The transaction was announced May 15, 2026, from Montréal and Bogotá.

The combined entity will consolidate 26 electric transmission concession agreements, more than 9,000 km of transmission lines, and a workforce of over 400 employees across 17 Brazilian states. At that scale, Verene will rank among the five largest power transmission operators in Brazil, a market that has drawn sustained interest from international infrastructure investors as the country advances grid modernization programs.

Verene, which had previously operated as La Caisse’s dedicated transmission platform in Brazil, will continue as the reference vehicle for the combined portfolio. The partners have indicated that the platform will be positioned to pursue acquisitions and network expansions in Brazil’s transmission concession market, with grid modernization and decarbonization cited as the broader policy context driving new investment opportunities.

“By bringing together highly complementary assets under one banner, the partnership establishes Verene as a scaled, business-driven platform with strong financial backing.” — Emmanuel Jaclot, Executive Vice-President and Head of Infrastructure and Sustainability, La Caisse

Grupo Energía Bogotá, headquartered in Bogotá and listed on the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC: GEB), has operated in Latin America’s energy sector for more than 130 years. The company holds assets in electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and gas transportation and distribution across Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Guatemala. Its entry into the joint venture contributes its existing Brazilian transmission concessions to the merged platform alongside La Caisse’s Verene assets.

La Caisse manages net assets of 517 billion CAD as of December 31, 2025, on behalf of 48 depositors representing more than six million Quebecers. The fund is active across major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and private credit, and has built a significant infrastructure portfolio in Latin America through investments including the Verene platform.

Juan Ricardo Ortega, president of Grupo Energía Bogotá, described the rationale for the transaction in terms of combining complementary strengths. “By combining our operational expertise and regional market knowledge with the financial strength and global perspective of our partner, we are creating a platform positioned to accelerate growth, expand transmission energy infrastructure, and support Brazil’s energy transition,” he said. “We believe this alliance will generate sustainable value for our stakeholders and contribute to Brazil’s economic and energy development.”

Emmanuel Jaclot, executive vice-president and head of infrastructure and sustainability at La Caisse, framed the deal as a consolidation play. “By bringing together highly complementary assets under one banner, the partnership establishes Verene as a scaled, business-driven platform with strong financial backing,” Jaclot said. “GEB brings more than 130 years of operating heritage and ranks among Latin America’s leading energy infrastructure groups, with deep expertise across the region’s transmission sector. Together, we share a vision to strengthen Verene’s footprint in Brazil through value-creating acquisitions and continued support for the country’s energy transition.”

Financial close is expected by the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, regulatory consents, and approvals. BTG Pactual (BVMF: BPAC11) acted as financial advisor to La Caisse, with Pinheiro Neto Advogados serving as legal counsel. Citibank (NYSE: C) advised Grupo Energía Bogotá on the financial side, while Mayer Brown provided legal advice to GEB.

Colombia’s gross domestic product expanded 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of 2025, surpassing prevailing market estimates, according to data released May 16 by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) and presented by the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo. The results reflected positive performance across production, industry, and domestic commerce.

The manufacturing sector was among the quarter’s strongest contributors, posting year-over-year growth of 2.9% and adding 0.3 percentage points to the annual variation in GDP. The sector’s performance placed it among the primary drivers of national economic output for the period.

Within manufacturing, two subsectors recorded particularly pronounced gains. Motor vehicle production expanded 27.8% year-over-year, while metallurgy grew 6.6%. Both categories function as inputs to broader industrial supply chains, and their recovery carries implications for upstream and downstream productive linkages, including employment in skilled manufacturing roles.

“What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication.” — Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism of Colombia

Separate monthly data from statistical agency DANE’s índice de producción industrial (IPI) showed that real industrial output grew 3.9% in March 2026 compared to March 2025. The expansion was distributed across multiple subsectors, including motor vehicles, metallurgy, machinery and equipment, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber, plastics, and non-metallic minerals, indicating that the manufacturing recovery was not concentrated in a single production category.

Wholesale and retail trade expanded 6.0% in the first quarter, reflecting increased domestic market activity and business commerce. The trade sector’s performance complemented the manufacturing gains and contributed to the overall breadth of the quarter’s expansion.

Not all sectors contributed positively. Construction contracted 5.4% compared to the first quarter of 2025, the weakest result among major economic categories for the period. Public administration, defense, social security, education, and health services grew 5.7%, and reporting by Colombian media citing DANE data indicated that public spending accounted for approximately 46% of total first-quarter growth — a concentration that introduces a structural caveat to the headline figure, as private-sector momentum remains uneven across the economy.

Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, minister of the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo, addressed the composition of the results in a statement issued alongside the data release. “What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition,” she said. “The recovery of manufacturing, metallurgical, and industrial production activities demonstrates a greater role for sectors associated with transformation, productive capacity, and value-added generation within the national economic dynamic. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication. These are meaningful indicators of strengthening of the manufacturing structure and national production.”

The first-quarter data were released as Colombia continues to manage elevated monetary policy rates and fiscal pressures that have weighed on investment activity in recent quarters. The Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo indicated that the quarter’s results reflect progress on an agenda oriented toward strengthening industry, domestic production, and commercial activity, though the degree to which private-sector industrial recovery can sustain these gains independently of public spending remains a key variable for subsequent quarters.

Headline photo credit: Tecnoglass

As Colombia nears its presidential vote, two candidates have endorsed Iván Cepeda and eight others remain below 3.5% in polls

With less than two weeks remaining before Colombia’s presidential election, whose first round is scheduled for May 31, three candidates are concentrating most voter support and competing for access to the presidential palace, Casa de Nariño: ruling coalition senator Iván Cepeda, candidate of the left-wing Pacto Histórico party; senator Paloma Valencia, representing the right-wing Centro Democrático party; and lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella, a figure of Colombia’s far right.

Although 13 candidates will appear on the ballot, two contenders: Clara López and Luis Gilberto Murillo, withdrew their campaigns to support Cepeda, while the remaining candidates have failed to surpass 3.5% voter support in pre-elections polls, a figure close to the statistical margin of error.

If polling trends hold, no candidate is expected to secure the 50% plus one vote needed to win outright in the first round, making a runoff election on June 21, 2026, highly likely.

Cepeda has remained relatively stable in polls, with voter support ranging between 35% and 43%, effectively securing his place in a second round if trends continue.

The key question: Who will face Cepeda in a runoff?

The main electoral uncertainty centers on who will finish second and challenge the ruling coalition in a likely runoff.

Under Colombia’s electoral system, only the two candidates receiving the highest vote totals advance to the second round. The fragmentation of the political right has complicated efforts to consolidate support behind either Valencia or De la Espriella.

Polls suggest a competitive scenario. Valencia has registered between 14% and 21% voter support, while De la Espriella fluctuates between 16% and 24%, depending on the poll and methodology used.

The lack of unity between the two camps stems from both ideological differences and their political structures. Valencia is a member of the political party founded by former President Álvaro Uribe, while De la Espriella entered the race through an independent signature campaign, marking the first time Colombia’s far right has emerged as a viable contender for the presidency.

A campaign shaped by the absence of public debates

The presidential campaign has been marked by an unusual lack of debates among the leading candidates.

Cepeda has refused to participate in events organized by media outlets, arguing that proposed formats do not offer guarantees of neutrality or what he describes as “fair rules” established by news organizations.

As a result, part of the political confrontation has shifted to Congress, where both Cepeda and Valencia currently serve in the Senate.

Critics, however, have challenged Cepeda’s decision. Former Bogotá Mayor and presidential candidate Claudia López argued that his absence from debates reflects that “Cepeda does not want to take responsibility for the failures of Total Peace (Paz Total),” the negotiation policy with armed groups promoted by President Gustavo Petro, in which Cepeda played a key role as a lawmaker.

Instead of regular debates, the campaign has been dominated by disputes over media formats, digital presence, social media strategies and public controversies aimed at amplifying candidates’ visibility.

De la Espriella embraces confrontation

One of the candidates who has most effectively capitalized on the digital environment is Abelardo de la Espriella, whose political strategy has been compared to right-wing populist leadership styles such as those of Argentine President Javier Milei and US President Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, De la Espriella has faced several media controversies, including an incident involving journalist Laura Rodríguez of Piso 8 FM, for which he later apologized after accusations of inappropriate sexual conduct. He also clashed live on air with television presenter María Lucía Fernández of Caracol Noticias, whom he called “ignorant.”

Questions also emerged following reports by digital outlet La Silla Vacía regarding donations linked to the US Republican Party.

Despite the controversies, the strategy appears to be strengthening his electoral standing. An Atlas Intel poll for Semana magazine, published May 15, showed De la Espriella surpassing Valencia by a two-to-one margin for the first time, with 32.9% support compared with 16.7%.

However, the polling firm is currently under investigation by Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) amid concerns over whether its methodology complies with national standards. If irregularities are confirmed, the firm could face suspension of its operations in Colombia.

Valencia seeks to broaden support toward the political center

Meanwhile, Valencia has sought to expand her electoral base by shifting strategically toward the political center.

As part of that effort, on May 17 she officially introduced her proposal “Mámá No Está Sola (Mom Is Not Alone),” aimed at female heads of household and focused on access to credit, employment and housing property. The proposal also includes a promise to deliver 1 million homes prioritized for women community leaders.

Valencia’s candidacy also marks a historic first for Colombia’s political right: it is the first time a major conservative party has nominated a woman for president.

Her vice presidential running mate, former Bogotá councilman Juan Daniel Oviedo, has openly identified as a member of the LGBTQ+ community, a move that represents a significant shift for the Centro Democrático traditionally conservative electorate.

Colombia appears headed for a runoff

With a highly fragmented field and no signs of consolidation among right-wing candidates, Colombia appears increasingly likely to hold a presidential runoff on June 21, 2026.

Barring a major shift in polling trends, the contest seems set to come down to Iván Cepeda and whichever opposition candidate manages to emerge from an increasingly competitive battle within Colombia’s political right.

Roa had already been administratively sanctioned by Colombia’s electoral authority over campaign spending violations, with the case now advancing in the Attorney General’s Office

Ricardo Roa Barragán, president of Colombia’s state-owned oil and energy company Ecopetrol, has been formally charged by the Attorney General’s Office (FGN) over his alleged responsibility in a case involving violations of campaign spending limits tied to President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign, which Roa managed.

The charging hearing took place Monday, May 11, during which Roa pleaded not guilty. The case will continue through the investigative stage, and no conviction has been issued against him.

This marks the second criminal case facing the executive. On March 11, 2026, prosecutors also charged Roa with alleged influence peddling involving a public official. Both investigations remain ongoing.

Read: The charge adds to a separate investigation over alleged violations of campaign finance limits during President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign.

The latest charges come weeks after Ecopetrol’s board authorized Roa to take vacation leave followed by unpaid leave through June 28, 2026, after Colombia’s presidential elections conclude.

The decision means Roa would return to the company only to participate in the transition process with the team designated by Colombia’s next president, who will take office on August 7, 2026.

Read: Ecopetrol Announces Temporary Leave for President Ricardo Roa Amid Investigations by Colombia’s Attorney General’s Office” by Finance Colombia.

Under Articles 396A and 396B of Colombia’s Criminal Law, individuals found responsible for receiving, administering or allowing prohibited campaign funds may face prison sentences ranging from four to eight years, in addition to fines and disqualification from holding public office if convicted.

Roa, however, retains the presumption of innocence while the judicial process continues.

Investigation into campaign financing

The case stems from the 2022 “Petro Presidente” campaign, which Roa Barragán managed. The matter had already resulted in administrative sanctions from Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE), which concluded that the campaign exceeded legal financing limits.

The Attorney General’s Office also said it identified alleged inconsistencies in the campaign’s financial reporting, claiming that first-round expenses were reported during the second round and vice versa.

As a result of that administrative investigation, the CNE referred the case to the Attorney General’s Office, which is responsible for conducting criminal investigations.

According to a statement from prosecutors, collected evidence suggests that campaign spending limits “were exceeded by $1.388 billion COP (around $370,000 USD) during the first presidential round and by $276 million COP ($73,000 USD) during the runoff.”

Prosecutors said the allegedly unreported or improperly reported expenses were linked to “hotel press conferences, breakfasts, loans, transportation, logistics, food services, financing for campaign-closing events, advertising materials and union contributions.

The investigation formally began in 2025 after the CNE determined there were possible irregularities involving campaign spending caps.

Petro defends Roa

President Gustavo Petro again defended Roa and questioned the basis of the judicial investigation.

“The Attorney General’s Office is repeating the same thing as the compromised CNE: that expenses incurred after the legal campaign period ended, such as the costs parties incur for election monitors to protect votes (…) are campaign expenses. Their so-called overspending is not overspending,” Petro wrote on X.

The president argued that several of the questioned expenditures took place after election day, when, according to his interpretation, the campaign had already formally concluded.

A tariff dispute between Colombia and Ecuador escalated to 100% duties on Colombian imports after Ecuador cited a lack of cooperation on border security

The Andean Community of Nations (CAN) ordered Colombia and Ecuador to dismantle, within 10 business days, the trade restrictions and tariff measures imposed since late 2025, concluding that they violate the legal framework governing the regional bloc composed of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

The decision was adopted through three resolutions issued May 8, 2026, by the CAN General Secretariat, led by Gonzalo Gutiérrez Reinel, following an assessment of trade disputes that emerged between the two countries amid tensions related to border security and commerce.

The organization concluded that several measures implemented by Quito and Bogotá violate the Cartagena Agreement, the founding treaty of Andean integration, which prohibits restrictions on intraregional trade among member states.

More information about the “security tariff”: Colombia and Ecuador Escalate Trade Tensions with Tariffs Raised to 100%.

Ecuador ordered to lift border restrictions and “security tariff”

The first resolution, No. 2581, ruled in favor of Colombia in a complaint related to Ecuador’s decision to limit bilateral land trade to a single border crossing. The General Secretariat classified the measure as a “restriction on Andean subregional trade” and granted Ecuador 10 business days to withdraw it.

The resolution also urged both countries to strengthen bilateral cooperation on border security matters.

“To urge the Republic of Ecuador and the Republic of Colombia to strengthen bilateral cooperation and coordination mechanisms in border control (…) through joint actions, without affecting the normal development of subregional trade,” the organization stated in Resolution 2581.

Meanwhile, Resolution 2582 ordered Ecuador to eliminate the so-called “security tariff” imposed exclusively on Colombian imports, which initially stood at 30% and later escalated to 100%.

According to CAN, the measure violates the Trade Liberalization Program established under the Cartagena Agreement and constitutes a “disguised tariff.”

The General Secretariat concluded that the so-called Customs Control Service Fee (TSCA) or “security tariff” does not qualify as a legitimate fee because it does not compensate for an individualized service to importers, but instead finances general state functions related to intelligence and strategic security.

Ecuador was given a maximum of 10 business days to dismantle the measure and formally report compliance. So far, the government of President Daniel Noboa has not issued an official response to the resolutions.

CAN also orders Colombia to dismantle countermeasures

“I have no problem removing tariffs on Ecuadorian products in the same manner and timeline in which they were imposed,” Petro wrote on X after the ruling became public.

The third resolution, No. 2583, rejected the trade countermeasures adopted by Colombia in response to Ecuador.

The government of President Gustavo Petro had issued Decree 0170, later tightened through Decree 0455, imposing reciprocal tariffs ranging from 30% to 75% on Ecuadorian products and restricting the entry of rice, potatoes, onions, and fishery products through specific border crossings.

CAN concluded that these measures are also incompatible with Andean community regulations.

Trade dispute rooted in security tensions

The commercial dispute between the two countries intensified beginning in late 2025 and reached its peak in April 2026, when both governments progressively increased tariffs and trade restrictions, citing concerns related to border security and anti-narcotics enforcement.

The tensions particularly affected border regions, where business groups and transport operators warned of disruptions to trade flows and rising logistical costs.

CAN’s resolutions now seek to restore free trade conditions within the Andean bloc and reduce diplomatic tensions between two of its largest economies.