In a lengthy post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump threw his support behind Colombian presidential candidate Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella, describing him as a “Smart, Strong, and Tough Leader” and offering what he called his “Complete and Total Endorsement” ahead of Colombia’s June 21 presidential runoff.
Trump praised De la Espriella’s first-round victory and portrayed him as a future champion of economic growth, law and order, and closer ties with the United States.
“The results of this Election are very important to the future of Colombia and its relationship to the United States,” Trump wrote.
The endorsement was notable not only for its enthusiasm but also for its language. Trump attacked De la Espriella’s opponent, left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, as a “Radical Left Marxist” and suggested the runoff could shape the future direction of one of Washington’s closest allies in Latin America.
Then came the response.
Addressing Trump directly, De la Espriella published a lengthy open letter that read less like a campaign statement and more like a declaration of intent.
“With my head held high and a heart full of patriotic gratitude, I receive your words and your steadfast support,” he wrote.
“Thank you, Mr. President.”
The candidate praised Trump as “a leader of true strength and conviction” who had refused to surrender to ideological trends or enemies of freedom.
More importantly, he suggested that Colombia was now following a path similar to that taken by Trump’s political movement in the United States.
“You have paved the way for the people to defeat the entrenched powers that have long held sway,” De la Espriella wrote. “In Colombia, we have now begun to follow that same path.”
It was one of the clearest attempts yet by the conservative candidate to place his campaign within a broader political realignment taking shape across the Americas.
The letter repeatedly returned to the idea of a common destiny shared by Colombia and the United States.
“The United States and Colombia are sister nations, bound by the blood of heroes and by our shared destiny to defend Western civilization across the Americas,” he wrote.
“Together, we are unbreakable.”
For De la Espriella, the relationship extends beyond diplomacy. It is rooted in what he described as shared values, mutual respect and a common struggle against forces that threaten both nations.
The candidate outlined a vision of closer cooperation on security, trade and economic development while emphasizing that both countries face similar challenges from organized crime and drug trafficking.
“Our security policies are fully aligned,” he wrote.
“Narcoterrorism is the cancer destroying our societies, and we will confront it relentlessly, with iron resolve and without apology.”
The statement echoed themes that have defined much of De la Espriella’s campaign: security, economic growth, private enterprise and a promise to reverse what he views as the failures of the Petro administration.
“We stand together in the sacred defense of private property, free enterprise, productive growth, and the well-being of our citizens as the highest purpose of government,” he wrote.
The candidate also pledged resistance to what he called the advance of communism in the hemisphere and announced support for an “Alliance of the Shield of the Americas,” a regional initiative intended to strengthen cooperation among governments committed to security, democracy and economic freedom.
The exchange unfolded as another senior figure in the Trump administration weighed in on Colombia’s election. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would closely monitor the electoral process. “We will be very firm in guaranteeing free and fair elections in Colombia and will do everything within our power to achieve that,” he said.
The comments were interpreted by many as a sign of growing U.S. interest in the outcome of the June 21 runoff.
President Gustavo Petro responded without mentioning Trump directly.
“When one country intervenes in the decisions of another country, freedom dies,” he wrote on social media, before posting videos of anti-riot police on the streets of Santiago, Chile, accompanied by the text: “They chose (President) Kazt and once again the violent war against youth in Chile.” Petro’s incoherence is palpable.
Yet it was the final image accompanying De la Espriella’s letter that perhaps captures the moment more effectively than any political statement.
Created using artificial intelligence, the illustration shows a bald eagle next to a fearless tiger. Behind them, the flags of the United States and Colombia under a turbulent sky.
The symbolism requires little explanation.
The eagle represents the United States. The tiger represents the firebrand “outsider”.
And together they illustrate the central message of De la Espriella’s response: that if voters elect him on June 21, relations between Bogotá and Washington will enter a new chapter.
“In this coming Era of the Tiger – which begins on June 21 – we look forward to the full normalization of relations between Colombia and the United States, built on mutual respect, sovereignty, and mutual benefit.”
Whether Colombians embrace that vision remains to be seen.
But for one extraordinary day in the campaign, the conversation was no longer only about Colombia’s future. It was about two flags, an eagle, a tiger and a political alliance that both supporters and critics believe could reshape relations across the hemisphere.
Two major international electoral observation missions have rejected claims of fraud in Colombia’s May 31 presidential first round, as outgoing President Gustavo Petro continued to press unsubstantiated allegations of irregularities in the days following the vote. The country heads to a June 21 runoff between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Iván Cepeda.
The European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) issued a preliminary statement Tuesday, June 2, describing the vote count as having been carried out in a “transparent, orderly and fluid” manner. Esteban González Pons, Vice President of the European Parliament and chief observer of the EU mission, told reporters in Bogotá that none of the 12 candidates who competed in the first round had brought claims of irregularities to his mission.
“We can discard any manipulation of data in the quick count and in the final count,” González Pons said. The mission selected a random sample of tally sheets from around the country and compared them to physical ballots cast, finding no inconsistencies.
“We can discard any manipulation of data in the quick count and in the final count.” — Esteban González Pons, Chief Observer, EU Election Observation Mission to Colombia
The EU EOM deployed 143 observers from 24 EU member states plus Norway, Switzerland, and Canada, covering 591 voting tables. The mission will also observe the June 21 runoff and issue a final report two months after the process concludes.
The Organization of American States (OAS) mission, headed by former Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández, similarly described the May 31 election day as “civic, calm and participatory,” with high citizen turnout compared to previous electoral cycles. The OAS mission comprised 96 observers and specialists from 24 countries, covering 412 polling stations and 1,340 voting tables across 26 departments, the Capital District, and five cities abroad.
Official results from the National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) showed de la Espriella receiving 43.74% of the vote, a margin of more than 673,000 votes over Cepeda, who received 40.90%. More than 23 million voters participated. By Monday night, the Registry said it had completed its review of 99.98% of voting tables and found a variation of only 0.06% from the quick count issued on election night.
Presento las bases comprobadas del posible fraude. Que puedo entregar a autoridad competente.
Dije que no reconocí los datos del preconteo del software de los hermanos Bautista es porque tengo datos.
Mi compromiso con mi pueblo y el amor a mi país por el que he luchado toda mi…
— Gustavo Petro (@petrogustavo) June 2, 2026
Petro, who is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, alleged on Sunday that 800,000 voters had been illegally added to voter rolls. He doubled down Tuesday in a post on X, claiming without evidence that 885,000 voters had been registered after a March 31 deadline, and pointing to alleged irregularities in the software used for vote counting and tabulation. The president said he could present his evidence to the relevant authorities.
Iván Cepeda (from Twitter)
Cepeda, who represents Petro’s Pacto Histórico, initially declined to acknowledge the quick count results on Sunday, saying he would wait for the official tally overseen by judges and notaries. By Monday, however, he softened his position, stating that monitors deployed by his party had not found “irregularities of a sufficient dimension to speak of fraud.” Cepeda also challenged de la Espriella to a debate ahead of the runoff.
Under Colombian law, election results are certified by judges, not the executive branch, typically within two weeks of the vote. González Pons noted that Colombia “has very strong democratic institutions, rooted in the people,” adding that the country “will find in democracy its principal ally, because of all the things that fail Colombia, democracy is one that has never failed it.”
Political analysts and observers have cautioned that Petro’s fraud allegations, made without supporting evidence, risk inflaming political tensions and contributing to a polarized climate in the lead-up to the June 21 runoff.
Colombia’s June 21 presidential runoff will have a significant bearing on the country’s economic policies and prospects, Fitch Ratings said in a commentary published this week.
In the first round of voting on May 31, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella — running under the Defensores de la Patria movement — received 43.7% of votes, defeating leftist senator Iván Cepeda of the governing Pacto Histórico, who received 40.9%. Neither candidate reached the absolute majority required to win outright, sending the election to a runoff.
De la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected first-round performance prompted a positive reaction in financial markets, reflecting expectations that he may be better positioned to address Colombia’s macroeconomic challenges that have intensified under outgoing President Gustavo Petro.
The next president will face the challenge of addressing Colombia’s wide fiscal imbalance. The central government deficit reached 6.4% of GDP in 2025, or 7.8% when net of a temporary reduction in interest costs from liability management operations. Fitch estimates that debt stabilization will require a fiscal adjustment equivalent to 4% of GDP. Higher global oil prices are expected to boost revenues via taxes and dividends in 2027, but Fitch cautioned that this support may not last.
“De la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected first-round performance prompted a positive reaction in financial markets, reflecting expectations that he may be better positioned to address Colombia’s macroeconomic challenges.” — Fitch Ratings
De la Espriella has pledged fiscal consolidation through a 40% reduction in the size of the state, while Cepeda has proposed restraining public-sector salaries and benefits. Budget rigidities and spending pressures tied to pensions, healthcare, and subnational transfers will make either adjustment difficult. Both candidates have also proposed higher spending — on defense and social welfare respectively. Capital spending could be trimmed as an adjustment variable, but only to a limited extent, with 2025 outlays of 2.7% of GDP.
The interest bill will be another source of pressure amid a higher local yield curve. Recent liability management operations have replaced lower-coupon bonds with higher-coupon ones, providing an up-front financial benefit while increasing future interest costs.
Given these spending constraints, durable fiscal consolidation is likely to require revenue-side measures. Colombia has a history of tax reforms, but new legislation is far from assured. De la Espriella has pledged to cut taxes, and while Cepeda supports revenue-raising measures, he could face obstacles in advancing reforms through Congress — as Petro’s administration found.
Uncertainties about Colombia’s trend growth persist. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.5% in 2019–2025, below the ‘BB’ median and below its own prior average of 3.5%–4%, supported by government transfers, a strong labor market, and minimum wage increases that kept private consumption buoyant at +4.2%. In contrast, investment contracted by an average of 1.6% annually, falling to 16% of GDP from 21%, affected in part by business concerns about the Petro administration’s more interventionist policy stance.
De la Espriella has pledged to boost growth through promotion of hydrocarbon development — including fracking — alongside tax cuts and steps to reduce administrative burdens on businesses. Cepeda has pledged continuity with Petro’s state-led development model, without concrete proposals to revive private investment.
Both agendas face implementation challenges. The next legislature will remain fragmented, requiring negotiation to pass any major legislation. As a political newcomer, de la Espriella could encounter difficulty advancing his program should he win. Social protests are a risk, particularly regarding his plans to cut spending and adopt a tougher security stance.
The election could also influence monetary policy, with implications for financial conditions and thus for public finances and growth. Despite rising inflation, the Banco de la República (Banrep) voted to hold its policy rate at 11.25% after swift prior increases of 200 basis points, amid explicit pressure from the executive branch for looser policy. The elections could influence Banrep’s next steps starting with its June 30 board meeting, and will also determine who fills two vacancies on its seven-member board in 2029.
Fitch’s downgrade of Colombia to ‘BB’/Stable in December 2025 reflected the agency’s view that the starting point for public finances had weakened considerably, and that improvement would take time regardless of the election outcome. Faster-than-expected fiscal adjustment, higher growth, and lower real rates that support debt stabilization could be positive for the rating. A worsening of these variables that steepens the debt trajectory could be negative.
Above image: Fitch Ratings
A federal jury in the Southern District of Florida convicted Ramon Arellano Sandoval, 65, of Antioch, Tennessee, on charges of attempted sex trafficking of a minor and attempted production of child sexual abuse material involving a 14-year-old victim residing in Medellín, Colombia. A US federal district judge subsequently sentenced Arellano Sandoval to 30 years in federal prison, according to Alcaldía de Medellín Mayor Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez, who confirmed the sentence on May 21, 2026.
The case, prosecuted by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida under case number 24-cr-20519, represents the tenth conviction obtained under a joint US-Colombia enforcement initiative targeting foreign nationals who travel to Medellín to sexually exploit minors. Three other US citizens previously sentenced in connection with the program include Stefan Correa and Manuel Poceiro, who each received life sentences, and Mohamed Anaswed, who received 21 years in federal prison.
According to court records and evidence presented at the February 24 trial, Arellano Sandoval exchanged thousands of text and video messages with the victim, who was 14 years old at the time, and who lived in a rural area near Medellín. Prosecutors presented evidence that the defendant knew the victim’s age, repeatedly solicited sexually explicit videos from her, directed her to produce illicit material in exchange for electronic payments, and traveled to Colombia to engage in commercial sex with her.
“The evidence showed that this defendant pressured a child to create sexually explicit videos and even traveled overseas to abuse her. That conduct is predatory, criminal, and intolerable.” — Jason A. Reding Quiñones, US Attorney, Southern District of Florida
The jury found Arellano Sandoval guilty of attempted sex trafficking of a minor, which carries a maximum sentence of life in federal prison, and attempted production of visual depictions of the sexual exploitation of a minor, which carries a maximum sentence of 30 years.
“The jury’s verdict delivered justice for a 14-year-old victim who was targeted and exploited by a 65-year-old man who knew exactly what he was doing,” said US Attorney Jason A. Reding Quiñones for the Southern District of Florida. “The evidence showed that this defendant pressured a child to create sexually explicit videos and even traveled overseas to abuse her.”
The investigation was conducted by Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Miami under Special Agent in Charge José R. Figueroa, with operational support from HSI Colombia. Assistant US Attorneys Tim Farina and Camille Smith handled the prosecution. On the Colombian side, the arrest and evidence collection involved the Alcaldía de Medellín, the Policía Nacional through its Dirección de Protección y Servicios Especiales (DIPRO), the Fiscalía General de la Nación, and Migración Colombia.
“La justicia no tiene fronteras cuando se trata de proteger a nuestros niños, niñas y adolescentes,” Gutiérrez wrote on his X account, referring to cross-border judicial cooperation in cases involving the exploitation of minors. The mayor indicated the administration would continue pursuing similar prosecutions, stating that any foreign national traveling to Medellín to exploit minors would be pursued until obtaining a conviction, including in their country of origin.
La justicia no tiene fronteras cuando se trata de proteger a nuestros niños, niñas y adolescentes.
Otro condenado más.
Ramón Arellano Sandoval, de 65 años de Estados Unidos, fue sentenciado a 30 años en prisión federal de ese país, por los delitos de intento de explotación… pic.twitter.com/mepkNuOURX
— Fico Gutiérrez (@FicoGutierrez) May 21, 2026
The Arellano Sandoval case follows a similar prosecution earlier in 2026 against Michael Jaime Inofuentes, also a US citizen, who was sentenced by the US District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia to 18 years in federal prison. Court evidence in that case established that Inofuentes sexually abused a 15-year-old in Medellín and paid for encounters in hotels, resulting in a pregnancy in early 2024. The investigation, triggered by a complaint from the victim’s mother to Colombian authorities, led to Inofuentes’s arrest in Miami. Prosecutors introduced WhatsApp conversations, financial transfers, and the defendant’s own admissions, which included statements that he had fathered other children in Colombia under similar circumstances. Related court documents and additional case information are available through the US District Court for the Southern District of Florida at www.flsd.uscourts.gov and through the PACER system at pacer.flsd.uscourts.gov under case number 24-cr-20519.
The United States has updated a “do not travel” warning for large parts of southwestern Colombia after a wave of terrorist attacks have left over 20 people dead, underscoring growing international concern over the country’s deteriorating security situation and prompting regional authorities to demand stronger support from the leftist government of President Gustavo Petro.
The U.S. Department of State maintained most of Colombia at Level 3 – “Reconsider Travel” – citing crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping and natural disasters, but reinforced its Level 4 advisory for several conflict-hit regions, including the departments of Arauca, Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Norte de Santander.
Under the latest guidance, Americans are advised not to travel to Cauca, excluding the departmental capital Popayán, and Valle del Cauca, excluding Cali, due to crime and terrorism.
Norte de Santander and Arauca remain under the same highest warning level, while travel within 10 kilometers of the Colombia-Venezuela border is also strongly discouraged because of kidnapping risks, armed conflict and the possibility of detention.
“Do not travel to these areas for any reason,” the State Department said in its advisory, adding that violent crime, armed robbery and murder remain common, while terrorist groups continue to operate in remote and rural zones.
The warning was reinforced by a U.S. Embassy security alert issued in Bogotá on April 27, following 26 separate attacks across southwestern Colombia during the weekend of April 25. The attacks targeted transportation corridors, military installations and police stations, with authorities confirming at least 20 deaths and dozens of injuries.
Police and military facilities are frequent targets of armed groups, and the State Department warned that attacks in Colombia have included car bombs, grenades, truck bombs, explosive devices placed on roads and buildings, and even drones carrying explosives.
Illegal armed groups, including dissident factions of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), narcotrafficking organizations and other insurgent groups, have expanded their territorial presence in recent years, particularly in remote areas where coca cultivation, illegal mining and strategic trafficking corridors overlap.
The deadliest recent attack occurred near the El Túnel sector in Cajibío, Cauca, along the Pan-American Highway, where an explosive device detonated against civilian vehicles, killing 20 civilians and injuring over 50 more. Authorities attributed the bombing to FARC dissidents under command of alias “Iván Mordisco”.
The attack shocked the country and intensified criticism of President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” policy, which seeks negotiated settlements with illegal armed groups but has faced mounting scrutiny as violence worsens in several regions.
In response, the Cauca governor’s office declared three days of official mourning. Authorities described the bombing as an “atrocious and unjustifiable” act and ordered flags to be flown at half-mast across public institutions and schools as a tribute to the victims.
The government also called for national unity and a stronger institutional response to confront armed violence in one of Colombia’s most volatile departments.
In neighboring Valle del Cauca, Governor Dilian Francisca Toro said she respected the U.S. warning but urged foreign governments and the media not to define the entire region by recent attacks.
“We ask that our region not be stigmatized,” Toro said, insisting that Valle del Cauca remains open to visitors and that violence does not represent the department’s cultural, economic and social identity.
At the same time, she sharply criticized the national government’s security response after attacks in Cali and Palmira, calling for “real, sustained and effective support” through more troops, stronger intelligence operations and direct action against criminal structures operating in the region.
Following an explosion near the Agustín Codazzi Engineers Battalion in Palmira, Toro announced an investment of nearly 70 billion pesos ($17 million) to strengthen police communications infrastructure, expand surveillance camera networks and improve secure transport corridors across municipalities.
In Cali, Mayor Alejandro Eder said an attempted attack against the Pichincha Battalion involved explosive gas cylinders, one of which failed to detonate while another exploded inside a minibus.
Authorities activated a citywide security operation and Eder offered a reward of up to 50 million pesos for information leading to the capture of those responsible. “We cannot allow terrorism to regain ground in our city,” Eder said.
In Colombia’s local fixed-income market, the Títulos de Tesorería (TES) fixed-rate curve appreciated across its entire structure over the last month. As of March, the total balance of TES in circulation stood at 747.9 trillion COP. Despite this positive market valuation, macroeconomic headwinds remain a central concern for the Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público. The fiscal balance of the Gobierno Nacional Central (GNC) reported an accumulated deficit of 1.7% of GDP through February.
These persistent fiscal imbalances were cited as the primary driver behind the recent decision by S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) to downgrade Colombia’s sovereign credit rating. The administration continues to manage these debt instruments against a backdrop of tight monetary conditions, which remain a primary focus for institutional investors holding Colombian sovereign paper.
Colombian fixed-income markets show valuation gains despite a recent S&P credit downgrade linked to ongoing fiscal imbalances.
The international fixed-income landscape experienced notable shifts between March 25 and April 23, 2026. The yield curve for US Treasury bonds displayed mixed performance, defined by a decrease in short-term rates and an increase in long-term yields. Analysts attribute this volatility primarily to conflicting signals regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Economic indicators released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that annual consumer inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated by 0.9 percentage points to reach 3.3% in March. This data triggered a rebound in short-term inflation expectations within the Treasury bond market, while medium and long-term outlooks remained stable. Consequently, the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) MOVE index—which tracks public debt market volatility—and the Cboe (NYSE: CBOE) VIX—which monitors S&P 500 equity volatility—both registered significant declines during the period.
The upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Banco de la República, scheduled for April 30, takes place as the balance of financial risks has shifted significantly compared to the first quarter of 2026. Analysts from Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB) expect the Junta Directiva to increase the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 12.00%.
The convergence of elevated inflation, recent reversal episodes, and misaligned market expectations has reinforced the perceived need for a restrictive monetary stance. This strategy aims to contain domestic demand while preserving the institutional credibility of the central bank. Unlike previous sessions, the current decision-making process is influenced by a shifting global environment where markets have moved toward a higher-for-longer interest rate scenario amid increased uncertainty.
Recent discussions regarding the participation of the Ministro de Hacienda in the Junta Directiva sessions have introduced an additional element of analysis. However, current assessments suggest this does not alter the fundamental policy diagnosis, and no disruptions to the decision-making process are anticipated. Monetary policy is expected to maintain consistency, with the strategic focus shifting from reaching a contractive level to determining the necessary duration of that posture.
Analysts project Banco de la República will raise rates to 12.00% to combat inflation despite slowing domestic economic growth.
The international economic context provides a mixed backdrop for the Colombian decision. Private sector activity in the US appeared to accelerate in April, following a 1.7% monthly increase in retail sales during March. In contrast, the Eurozone reported a contraction in economic activity during April. Energy markets have also seen volatility, with US crude inventories rising in the second week of April while gasoline stocks saw a significant decline. Furthermore, crude prices surged following reports of new security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Domestically, the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística reported that the Índice de Seguimiento a la Economía grew by 1.6% in February. While imports maintained growth during the same month, the urban unemployment rate across the 13 primary metropolitan areas continued a downward trend through March 2026. In the fixed income market, the central government reported debt levels at 64.2% of GDP for the first quarter, with internal debt accounting for 71.2% of that total.
Market movements reflected these broader trends as the US Treasury curve saw valuation increases driven by investor caution. In the region, Colombia, Brazil, and Uruguay emerged as the primary beneficiaries of the J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) GBI index rebalancing in March. Locally, fixed-rate Títulos de Tesorería experienced devaluations across the entire curve last week. According to the April Encuesta de Opinión Financiera, these devaluations are expected to persist in the coming months. In currency markets, the COP appreciated last week against a backdrop of global and local factors, while the Euro lost ground against the USD.
Headline photo: Bogotá headquarters of Banco de la República (Banrepublica). Photo credit Juan Enrique Rodríguez, courtesy Banrepublica
The Colombian peso (COP) experienced a 2.1% appreciation during March 2026, driven by a recovery in global oil prices and key domestic developments. According to the latest analysis from Bancolombia (BVC: BCOLOMBIA / NYSE: CIB), the performance of the currency coincided with the results of national legislative elections and recent monetary policy adjustments by the Banco de la República.
Global energy markets recorded a significant increase in crude prices throughout the month. Brent crude rose 63% to end March at $118 USD per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 51% to close at $101 USD per barrel. These price movements have been largely attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to influence international commodity flows and investor sentiment.
On the domestic front, the Gran Coalición por Colombia primary election recorded a turnout of more than 5 million voters. Market analysts indicated that the high participation rate was viewed as a positive indicator of institutional stability. Simultaneously, the Board of Directors of the Banco de la República increased the national policy interest rate by 100 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 11.25%. This decision aligns with regional efforts to manage inflationary pressures through tighter monetary control.
International market conditions also reflect a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East and persistent economic indicators, markets currently anticipate that the US central bank will maintain existing interest rates without cuts for the remainder of the year.
Looking forward to April, the research team at Bancolombia—led by Chief Economist Laura Clavijo, Macroeconomic Manager Jose Luis Mojica, and International and FX Analyst Maria Paula Gonzalez—projects that the exchange rate will trade within a range of $3,625 COP to $3,725 COP. This forecast accounts for continued volatility and heightened uncertainty in both global and domestic financial markets.
Bancolombia (photo © Loren Moss)
Ecopetrol S.A. (BVC: ECOPETROL; NYSE: EC) has entered into a formal payment agreement with the Government of Colombia to settle outstanding balances from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, known in Spanish as the Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles (FEPC). The agreement, reached through the Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía, addresses $1.6 trillion COP owed for the first quarter of 2025.
Under the terms of Resolutions 00368 and 00369 issued by the Dirección de Hidrocarburos, the total amount is divided between Ecopetrol S.A., which is owed $1.2 trillion COP, and Refinería de Cartagena S.A.S. (Reficar), which is owed $0.4 trillion COP. The repayment schedule began with a cash transfer of $2.89 billion COP on April 1, 2026. The remaining balance of approximately $1.55 trillion COP is scheduled to be paid on December 15, 2026, through the issuance of Treasury Securities, or Títulos de Tesorería (TES). The Colombian state has acknowledged the financial costs associated with the time elapsed until the final December payment.
“The Ecopetrol Group continues to work in close coordination with the Ministries of Finance and Public Credit and of Mines and Energy — the authorities responsible for fuel pricing policy — in the implementation of payment mechanisms and the reduction of FEPC balances.” — Ecopetrol S.A.
Concurrent with the subsidy settlement, Ecopetrol received authorization from the Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público via Resolution 0666 to execute an external public debt management transaction totaling $1.25 billion USD. The five-year loan was secured through a consortium of international lenders including BBVA (BME: BBVA; NYSE: BBVA), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and Bank of China (HKG: 3988). The credit facility carries a floating interest rate indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and will be repaid in four equal installments.
The proceeds from the $1.25 billion USD loan are designated for the repayment of existing obligations. Specifically, $1.2 billion USD will be used to settle a 2024 loan previously authorized for the acquisition of the state’s interest in Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. E.S.P. (ISA), while the remaining $50 million USD will be applied to an outstanding balance from a 2025 credit agreement. The loan agreement is governed by the laws of the State of New York and includes standard covenants regarding the borrower’s payment capacity and financial integrity.
These financial maneuvers are intended to optimize the maturity profile of the Ecopetrol Group, which remains responsible for over 60% of hydrocarbon production in Colombia. The company continues to operate integrated systems in transportation, refining, and petrochemicals, with additional international operations in the US Permian basin, the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Mexico.
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