Refining margin surge cushions revenue drop amid leadership void

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC, BVC: ECOPETROL) reported first-quarter 2026 consolidated revenues of 28.6 trillion COP, a decline of 8.7% from 31.4 trillion COP in the year-earlier period, as lower crude oil prices and reduced hydrocarbon production compressed the top line for Colombia’s state-controlled oil and gas company. Against that backdrop, a marked recovery in refining margins and disciplined cost management lifted EBITDA by 1.5% to 13.5 trillion COP, yielding a 47% EBITDA margin and partially offsetting the revenue headwind. At the Q1 2026 average exchange rate of approximately 3,700 COP per USD, the quarter’s revenues translate to roughly $7.73 billion USD and EBITDA to approximately $3.65 billion USD.

Net income for the quarter reached 2.9 trillion COP (approximately $784 million USD), down 7.7% year-over-year, reflecting the combined drag of lower revenues, a sharply elevated effective tax rate of 37.1%, and a one-time charge of 1.2 trillion COP for the impuesto al patrimonio — Colombia’s government-mandated wealth levy on large corporations established to fund post-disaster reconstruction measures. The company is also subject to a 10% income tax surcharge applicable for fiscal year 2026, which is embedded in the reported effective rate. The aggregate tax burden absorbed a disproportionate share of operating improvement relative to prior periods, limiting the flow-through of refining gains to the net income line.

Total hydrocarbon production averaged 725.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboed) in Q1 2026, below the 745 kboed recorded in the 2025 annual average cited by management during the March 2026 general shareholders’ meeting. Domestic crude output represented the largest component at approximately 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd). Ecopetrol’s Permian Basin operations in the United States contributed 91.8 kbd, underscoring the continued strategic importance of the international segment. Gas production continued a multi-year declining trend that poses a medium-term domestic supply challenge; management has sought to address this partially through regasification capacity additions at Puerto Bahía and on the Pacific coast, expected to come online in the second half of 2026 with a combined contribution of up to 430 billion BTU per day.

The refining segment delivered the quarter’s most pronounced operational outperformance. Ecopetrol’s domestic refineries, led by Refinería de Cartagena, processed 417.5 kbd of crude throughput. The integrated refining margin rose to $17.3 USD per barrel, a 60% improvement over the same quarter of 2025, driven by favorable differential pricing between domestic crude benchmarks and refined product values alongside ongoing operational efficiency improvements. The Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas (CREG) and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía remain central to the regulatory framework governing downstream margins over the medium term.

The balance sheet carries significant structural and contingent risk items of direct relevance to institutional credit and equity holders. Gross debt stood at 108.1 trillion COP (approximately $29.2 billion USD), representing a leverage ratio of 2.3 times trailing EBITDA — a level that leaves limited room for further deterioration before debt covenants or rating agency thresholds become binding. Ecopetrol holds a receivable of 4.2 trillion COP (approximately $1.14 billion USD) from the Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles (FEPC), a government fuel price stabilization mechanism that represents a claim on the Colombian treasury with timing and recovery risk. A dispute with the Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales (DIAN) over value-added tax assessments totals 12.26 trillion COP (approximately $3.31 billion USD) in aggregate, of which 10.22 trillion COP relates to Ecopetrol’s consolidated operations and 2.04 trillion COP to Refinería de Cartagena. Both cases are under administrative and judicial review; no provisions have been recognized in the financial statements pending resolution, but the potential liability represents a material contingency relative to the company’s quarterly net income.

On the corporate development front, Ecopetrol disclosed three significant transactions during or following the quarter. The company agreed to acquire producing assets from Gran Tierra Energy (NYSE: GTE, TSX: GTE) for $92.4 million USD, adding Colombian upstream production inventory in basins where both companies have operated. In Brazil, Ecopetrol launched a tender offer for shares of Brava Energia (BVMF: BRAV3) at 23 BRL per share, seeking to expand its footprint in that country’s oil and gas sector. And in a transaction that would reshape the mid-size independent landscape in Colombia, the company reached an agreement to acquire Parex Resources (TSX: PXT) for $250 million USD; Parex is a Colombia-focused producer with a complementary asset base across the Llanos and other producing basins. Collectively, the three transactions signal that Ecopetrol’s capital allocation strategy under the current government continues to favor upstream consolidation despite the elevated leverage profile.

The exploration portfolio generated positive news announcements. The Copoazú-1 exploratory well, drilled in Colombia’s Llanos foothills region, was confirmed as a commercial discovery, adding to the domestic reserve base. The Sirius offshore project advanced through the Consulta Previa process — a legally mandated prior consultation with indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities required before development of projects in or near their territories — reaching a milestone in community engagement that brings the project closer to formal development sanction. The Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH) oversees the licensing framework within which both projects operate.

“Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” — Martín Ravelo, President, Unión Sindical Obrera (USO)

The ISA transmission segment, managed through Ecopetrol’s majority stake in ISA — Interconexión Eléctrica S.A., contributed stable regulated cash flows during the quarter. ISA completed 46 transmission reinforcement works across its Latin American concession portfolio. The segment also completed the acquisition of 100% of IE Madeira in Brazil, consolidating its position in that country’s power grid interconnection infrastructure. ISA further submitted a competitive bid for the Río Bueno–Puerto Montt high-voltage transmission line concession in Chile, demonstrating the group’s appetite for long-duration, inflation-linked infrastructure assets across the Andes region. For institutional investors evaluating Ecopetrol as a blended hydrocarbons-and-infrastructure holding, ISA’s consistent cash generation provides partial diversification from crude price volatility, though it does not insulate the consolidated entity from headline governance risk.

The most consequential variable for the investment thesis over the near term is Ecopetrol’s prolonged governance crisis. At the company’s general shareholders’ meeting on March 27, 2026, held at the Corferias convention center in Bogotá, minority shareholders loudly heckled president Ricardo Roa — with audible shouts of “¡Fuera, fuera!” reverberating through the hall — as debate over his leadership erupted into open confrontation. The meeting approved a dividend of 121 COP per share for minority holders and a 4 trillion COP distribution to the Colombian government as majority shareholder, payable in two installments by June 30, 2026. Despite the financial business conducted, governance overshadowed the proceedings.

Roa faces two separate judicial proceedings. The Fiscalía General de la Nación formally charged him in connection with alleged influence peddling related to the purchase of an apartment in northern Bogotá — charges he has denied. Separately, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) is examining whether campaign spending limits were violated during President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign, which Roa managed — an investigation that Finance Colombia has covered in detail. Angela Maria Robledo, Chair of the Board of Directors, defended the board’s decision to retain Roa at the March assembly, citing the constitutional presumption of innocence. However, four of the nine board members had already formally recorded their support for his removal at that point, exposing a divided governance structure at a time when strategic and operational decisions require unified leadership.

The Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), which represents approximately one-third of Ecopetrol’s workforce, issued a production strike ultimatum timed to a March 30 board meeting. Martín Ravelo, president of the USO, framed the leadership crisis explicitly in terms of US regulatory risk: “Ecopetrol is listed on the New York Stock Exchange; we are governed by the strict regulations of US federal agencies. Agencies like OFAC and the SEC could intervene in the company and could even accelerate the payment of financial obligations, which would be extremely grave for Ecopetrol.” Ravelo further warned that the company’s outstanding international debt — which he placed at approximately $30 billion USD and which is exacerbated by elevated interest rates — left Ecopetrol exposed to potential covenant triggers or early repayment demands in a scenario where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Office of Foreign Assets Control were to take enforcement action.

Following sustained pressure from the USO, minority shareholders, and opposition political figures, Ecopetrol’s board approved an extended leave of absence for Roa beginning April 7, 2026. Under the arrangement, Roa used accrued vacation through May 27, followed by 30 calendar days of unpaid leave beginning May 28, extending his absence through the end of June — a period encompassing Colombia’s presidential first round on May 31 and a potential runoff on June 21. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra, the company’s executive vice president of hydrocarbons and designated first alternate to the presidency since November 2025, was appointed acting president. Hurtado Parra holds an MBA in International Oil and Gas and brings more than 28 years of energy sector experience to the acting role, having previously served as vice president of exploration, development, and production.

The political calendar creates a structural transition risk that sits above the operational and financial results as the primary concern for long-duration investors. Colombia’s incoming government, to be inaugurated August 7, 2026, is widely expected to appoint a new Ecopetrol board and select a new company president. That transition may bring material shifts in strategic priorities — including the pace of upstream investment, the approach to the FEPC receivable recovery, the trajectory of energy transition spending, and the capital allocation balance between the hydrocarbons segment and the ISA infrastructure platform. The Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía will both play key roles in establishing the post-election policy framework under which Ecopetrol operates. Institutional investors holding exposure to Ecopetrol via NYSE: EC or BVC: ECOPETROL must weigh Q1’s genuine operational improvement — most visibly in refining margins and EBITDA stability — against a governance and policy transition risk profile that is unlikely to be resolved before the August handover.

Ecopetrol’s Cartagena refinery (photo courtesy Ecopetrol)

Tariff headwinds compress Tecnoglass margins despite record Q1 sales

Tecnoglass, Inc. (NYSE: TGLS) reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $249.0 million USD, a 12.0% year-over-year increase and a first-quarter record for the Barranquilla, Colombia-based window and architectural glass manufacturer. Despite the top-line growth, net income fell to $31.9 million USD, or $0.71 per diluted share, from $42.2 million USD, or $0.90 per diluted share, in the same period of 2025, as elevated US aluminum costs linked to import tariffs, mandatory minimum wage increases in Colombia, and a strengthening Colombian peso combined to compress gross margins by 540 basis points to 38.5%.

Multi-family and commercial revenues rose 20.4% year-over-year, driven by continued activity across key markets including geographies beyond Florida, which has historically dominated the company’s US revenue mix. Single-family residential revenues were relatively flat on a year-over-year basis, with management attributing the result to the timing of order conversion into revenue rather than underlying demand, noting that order growth in the segment remained positive into April 2026. On a geographic basis, the US accounted for $237.1 million USD, or approximately 95% of total revenues, up 11.6%. Colombia generated $7.5 million USD, up 17.2%, and other international markets contributed $4.4 million USD, up 27.3%.

Gross profit declined to $95.8 million USD from $97.5 million USD in Q1 2025 despite the higher revenue base. The company cited an unfavorable revenue mix driven by a greater proportion of installation-related revenue, higher raw material costs — with US aluminum tariffs representing an incremental headwind of approximately $6.4 million USD in the quarter — higher salary expenses resulting from annual minimum wage adjustments in Colombia, and the effect of a stronger Colombian peso on costs incurred locally. Pricing actions and operating leverage on higher volume partly offset these pressures.

“We see a clear path to fully offsetting the impact of tariffs in 2027, when full-year pricing across both businesses and incremental automation savings are expected to be realized.” — Santiago Giraldo, Chief Financial Officer, Tecnoglass

Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $50.9 million USD, or 20.4% of revenues, from $42.5 million USD, or 19.1%, in Q1 2025. The increase reflected higher personnel costs from annual salary adjustments, peso appreciation, and higher transportation and commission costs tied to revenue growth. The period also included a one-time charge of $2.9 million USD related to Colombia’s *impuesto al patrimonio*, a government-imposed wealth tax levied on large corporations to fund measures addressing recent climate-related events in the country.

Adjusted EBITDA — which excludes non-cash foreign exchange gains and losses, the bad-debt provision, non-recurring charges, and equity-method adjustments related to the company’s joint venture in Vidrio Andino with Saint-Gobain (EPA: SGO) — came in at $61.5 million USD, or 24.7% of total revenues, compared to $70.2 million USD, or 31.6%, in Q1 2025. Adjusted net income was $34.6 million USD, or $0.78 per diluted share, versus $43.1 million USD, or $0.92, in the prior-year quarter.

Cash provided by operating activities was $6.7 million USD, a significant decline from $46.9 million USD in Q1 2025, driven in part by a deliberate build-up of US-sourced aluminum inventories — up $34.3 million USD in the quarter — as part of the company’s tariff mitigation strategy. Capital expenditures of $17.3 million USD reflected scheduled payments tied to previously announced capacity and automation projects. During the quarter, Tecnoglass returned $16.5 million USD to shareholders through share repurchases and paid $6.7 million USD in cash dividends. As of May 7, 2026, approximately $92.5 million USD remained available under the current share repurchase program. The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $425.0 million USD, comprising $91.1 million USD in cash and cash equivalents and more than $330.0 million USD in revolving credit facility availability, against total debt of $200.3 million USD.

The company’s order backlog reached a record $1.36 billion USD at quarter-end, up 19.1% year-over-year, extending multi-family and commercial pipeline visibility into 2027. Tecnoglass cited continued expansion of its dealer network and showroom footprint as supporting geographic diversification and market share gains, with vinyl product lines identified as an incremental growth driver broadening the company’s addressable market.

José Manuel Daes, chief executive officer, commented on the results: “First quarter results were in line with our expectations, with resilient performance across our key metrics reflecting the continued strength of our vertically integrated business model despite a dynamic cost environment. Demand for our product offerings remains strong, as demonstrated by another quarter of record backlog and healthy order activity, with momentum continuing into the second quarter. Our previously announced pricing actions are now in place, and the broad-based nature of industry cost pressures supports our confidence in executing these increases while preserving our competitive positioning.”

Christian Daes, chief operating officer, addressed the tariff response and the company’s assessment of a potential US manufacturing presence. “Our pricing initiatives and cost mitigation efforts are well underway, including logistics improvements, further automation across our operations, and ongoing supply chain optimization,” he said. “We are also advancing our assessment of a proposed US manufacturing initiative, with a well-located site identified and significant state and local incentives secured that strengthen the project’s potential economics if we decide to move forward based on market demand.”

Santiago Giraldo, chief financial officer, reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance and outlined the company’s tariff offset timeline. “Based on our strong execution to start the year, we are reiterating our full year revenue outlook in the range of $1.06 billion to $1.13 billion USD and Adjusted EBITDA outlook in the range of $225 million to $245 million USD,” Giraldo said. “This reflects the impact of the recently implemented 10% tariff on finished aluminum window imports as previously disclosed, which is expected to be partly offset in 2026 through pricing actions effective on orders from early May forward, with additional efficiency initiatives from logistics optimization and automation underway and expected to begin contributing benefits by year end. We see a clear path to fully offsetting the impact of tariffs in 2027, when full-year pricing across both businesses and incremental automation savings are expected to be realized.”

On the corporate structure front, Tecnoglass’ board of directors has approved a plan to redomicile the company from the Cayman Islands to the United States, subject to shareholder approval. If approved, the redomiciliation is expected to be completed during Q2 2026. The company stated that the move is intended to simplify its organizational and regulatory structure, improve the tax efficiency of dividend distributions, and expand its potential investor base to include funds and accounts limited to US-domiciled securities. Tecnoglass will retain its Miami, Florida headquarters following the change.

Separately, the company is conducting a feasibility study for a potential new US manufacturing facility. A site meeting project specifications has been identified and substantial state and local tax credits have been secured. The proposed facility is described as highly automated and intended to support future growth while also improving lead times, reducing transportation costs for certain markets, enhancing supply chain efficiency, and enabling the company to compete for Buy America-eligible projects and rapid-turnaround contracts. Tecnoglass expects to complete the purchase of land for the potential facility during Q2 2026, at an estimated cost of $20 million to $25 million USD to be financed through available credit facilities. The company noted that the land purchase does not constitute a commitment to proceed with construction, which would occur in phases contingent on demand, market conditions, and return profiles. The company’s 5.8-million-square-foot vertically integrated manufacturing complex in Barranquilla, Colombia, would continue to serve as its primary production base.

Above photo: Tecnoglass facilities in Barranquilla

Colombia’s gross domestic product expanded 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of 2025, surpassing prevailing market estimates, according to data released May 16 by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) and presented by the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo. The results reflected positive performance across production, industry, and domestic commerce.

The manufacturing sector was among the quarter’s strongest contributors, posting year-over-year growth of 2.9% and adding 0.3 percentage points to the annual variation in GDP. The sector’s performance placed it among the primary drivers of national economic output for the period.

Within manufacturing, two subsectors recorded particularly pronounced gains. Motor vehicle production expanded 27.8% year-over-year, while metallurgy grew 6.6%. Both categories function as inputs to broader industrial supply chains, and their recovery carries implications for upstream and downstream productive linkages, including employment in skilled manufacturing roles.

“What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication.” — Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism of Colombia

Separate monthly data from statistical agency DANE’s índice de producción industrial (IPI) showed that real industrial output grew 3.9% in March 2026 compared to March 2025. The expansion was distributed across multiple subsectors, including motor vehicles, metallurgy, machinery and equipment, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber, plastics, and non-metallic minerals, indicating that the manufacturing recovery was not concentrated in a single production category.

Wholesale and retail trade expanded 6.0% in the first quarter, reflecting increased domestic market activity and business commerce. The trade sector’s performance complemented the manufacturing gains and contributed to the overall breadth of the quarter’s expansion.

Not all sectors contributed positively. Construction contracted 5.4% compared to the first quarter of 2025, the weakest result among major economic categories for the period. Public administration, defense, social security, education, and health services grew 5.7%, and reporting by Colombian media citing DANE data indicated that public spending accounted for approximately 46% of total first-quarter growth — a concentration that introduces a structural caveat to the headline figure, as private-sector momentum remains uneven across the economy.

Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, minister of the Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo, addressed the composition of the results in a statement issued alongside the data release. “What is notable about the first-quarter results is not solely the magnitude of the growth, but its composition,” she said. “The recovery of manufacturing, metallurgical, and industrial production activities demonstrates a greater role for sectors associated with transformation, productive capacity, and value-added generation within the national economic dynamic. The performance of sectors such as motor vehicles, metallurgy, and machinery is particularly significant because it demonstrates a recovery of industrial capacities with greater effects on productive linkages, skilled employment, and economic sophistication. These are meaningful indicators of strengthening of the manufacturing structure and national production.”

The first-quarter data were released as Colombia continues to manage elevated monetary policy rates and fiscal pressures that have weighed on investment activity in recent quarters. The Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo indicated that the quarter’s results reflect progress on an agenda oriented toward strengthening industry, domestic production, and commercial activity, though the degree to which private-sector industrial recovery can sustain these gains independently of public spending remains a key variable for subsequent quarters.

Headline photo credit: Tecnoglass

They were shackled and sent to Kinshasa by the Trump administration. Now they face a dangerous choice: Go back to Latin America or stay in Africa.

At a time when children are increasingly indoors – absorbed by screens, separated from the street and distanced from the spontaneous rituals of neighborhood play – a new exhibition by the Banco de la República has launched at the Museo de Arte Miguel Urrutia (MAMU), and one that asks a deceptively simple question: what happened to playing outside with friends?

Having opened on April 23 at El Parqueadero and second floor of MAMU, Francis Alÿs, juegxs de niñxs 1999–2025 brings together 27 video works from the Belgian-born, Mexico-based artist’s celebrated long-running series documenting children’s games across the world.

Curated by Cuauhtémoc Medina and Virginia Roy, the exhibition proposes something more than nostalgia. It invites viewers to see play as a form of social architecture – a place where children create rules, resolve disputes and build entire worlds from whatever their environment offers.

Games, the curators suggest, are “social laboratories in miniature.”

For more than two decades, Francis Alÿs has traveled across cities, villages and conflict zones filming children at play. What began in 1999 evolved into an audiovisual archive spanning more than 50 short films across five continents, 27 of which are included in the Bogotá exhibition.

Children jump across hopscotch grids in Afghanistan, toss bones in India, spin tops in Mexico and invent rhythmic contests in narrow urban streets. One of the featured Colombian works, Trompos de semilla, Arara, Colombia, 2025, was filmed in the Amazon with support from Banco de la República’s Cultural Center in Leticia, capturing children in the Arara community playing with spinning tops made from seeds.

The games are simple, but the implications are not.

On the screen there are adults directing the action, no digital interfaces, no organized sports structures. Instead, children improvise with what is at hand – sticks, stones, crates, seeds, chalk, bottle caps – creating systems of cooperation and competition, rules and rebellion.

That act of invention lies at the center of Alÿs’s fascination.

Born in Belgium in 1959, Alÿs grew up with the image of Children’s Games (1560), the iconic painting by Pieter Bruegel the Elder depicting hundreds of children absorbed in play across a town square. According to the exhibition guide, the work became a lifelong reference point—an early visual map of how play reveals the structure of society itself.

Alÿs studied architecture at the Istituto Universitario di Architettura di Venezia before moving to Mexico in 1986 as part of an aid project to help install aqueducts in Oaxaca. He later settled in Mexico City’s historic center, where he developed the poetic and political language that would define his career.

His practice – spanning video, painting, installation and performance – often addresses borders, migration, urban fragility and the absurd mechanics of social order. Power dynamics, the commercialization of public space and the erosion of civic community remain central artistic preoccupations.

In Juegxs de niñxs those themes emerge quietly but powerfully.

Alÿs is not merely documenting childhood. He is observing how public life functions – and how children, often without adult mediation, rehearse the structures of society through play.

The exhibition reveals how games create temporary communities. They teach negotiation, competition, fairness and exclusion. They reflect both freedom and hierarchy. In some videos, the children play in ordinary neighborhoods filled with laughter and routine. In others, games unfold beside military checkpoints or in areas shaped by poverty, displacement and war.

Play persists, but never outside history.

The multi-screen installation at MAMU emphasizes these contrasts, showing both the universality of childhood and the inequalities that define it. Similar games appear across radically different geographies, suggesting what the curators describe as a kind of underground cosmopolitan culture of childhood – one that challenges the rigid identities of the adult world.

At the same time, the exhibition reflects on disappearance.

Traditional street games, some with roots stretching back to ancient Mesopotamia, are becoming less visible. Urban traffic has overtaken streets once used as playgrounds. Safety concerns have limited unsupervised outdoor play. Screens and digital entertainment increasingly dominate leisure time. Public space itself has become more regulated, commercialized and less available for improvisation.

Alÿs’s work does not romanticize the past, but it does capture transient moments of celebration.

What looks ordinary today – a spinning top, a hopscotch square, a game played with stones – may one day become a contemporary hieroglyph, evidence of how communities once formed themselves in public space.

As curator Cuauhtémoc Medina notes, games are not eternal. Their disappearance may signal something larger about the transformation of humanity itself.

If all the world’s a street, Alÿs has chosen not to place these collaborative works on the market, underscoring their documentary and communal nature. For the multi-medium storyteller, games, like art, are not commodities, but shared records of our collective experience.

This Bogotá presentation marks the exhibition’s fifth international stop following showings in Mexico City, Antwerp, Guadalajara and Santiago de Chile. In 2024, Alÿs also presented the project at the Barbican Art Gallery under the title Ricochets, marking the first time his work was shown in the United Kingdom.

At MAMU, the museum becomes more than a gallery – it becomes a space to reconsider childhood, the city and the fragile public spaces where both are formed.

Museo de Arte Miguel Urrutia. Calle 11 No.4-21.

Admission is Free.

Colombia navigates fiscal challenges following S&P rating revision.

In Colombia’s local fixed-income market, the Títulos de Tesorería (TES) fixed-rate curve appreciated across its entire structure over the last month. As of March, the total balance of TES in circulation stood at 747.9 trillion COP. Despite this positive market valuation, macroeconomic headwinds remain a central concern for the Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público. The fiscal balance of the Gobierno Nacional Central (GNC) reported an accumulated deficit of 1.7% of GDP through February.

These persistent fiscal imbalances were cited as the primary driver behind the recent decision by S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) to downgrade Colombia’s sovereign credit rating. The administration continues to manage these debt instruments against a backdrop of tight monetary conditions, which remain a primary focus for institutional investors holding Colombian sovereign paper.

Colombian fixed-income markets show valuation gains despite a recent S&P credit downgrade linked to ongoing fiscal imbalances.

The international fixed-income landscape experienced notable shifts between March 25 and April 23, 2026. The yield curve for US Treasury bonds displayed mixed performance, defined by a decrease in short-term rates and an increase in long-term yields. Analysts attribute this volatility primarily to conflicting signals regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Economic indicators released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that annual consumer inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated by 0.9 percentage points to reach 3.3% in March. This data triggered a rebound in short-term inflation expectations within the Treasury bond market, while medium and long-term outlooks remained stable. Consequently, the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) MOVE index—which tracks public debt market volatility—and the Cboe (NYSE: CBOE) VIX—which monitors S&P 500 equity volatility—both registered significant declines during the period.

Central bank hike aims to stabilize inflation amid global volatility.

The upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Banco de la República, scheduled for April 30, takes place as the balance of financial risks has shifted significantly compared to the first quarter of 2026. Analysts from Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB) expect the Junta Directiva to increase the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 12.00%.

The convergence of elevated inflation, recent reversal episodes, and misaligned market expectations has reinforced the perceived need for a restrictive monetary stance. This strategy aims to contain domestic demand while preserving the institutional credibility of the central bank. Unlike previous sessions, the current decision-making process is influenced by a shifting global environment where markets have moved toward a higher-for-longer interest rate scenario amid increased uncertainty.

Recent discussions regarding the participation of the Ministro de Hacienda in the Junta Directiva sessions have introduced an additional element of analysis. However, current assessments suggest this does not alter the fundamental policy diagnosis, and no disruptions to the decision-making process are anticipated. Monetary policy is expected to maintain consistency, with the strategic focus shifting from reaching a contractive level to determining the necessary duration of that posture.

Analysts project Banco de la República will raise rates to 12.00% to combat inflation despite slowing domestic economic growth.

The international economic context provides a mixed backdrop for the Colombian decision. Private sector activity in the US appeared to accelerate in April, following a 1.7% monthly increase in retail sales during March. In contrast, the Eurozone reported a contraction in economic activity during April. Energy markets have also seen volatility, with US crude inventories rising in the second week of April while gasoline stocks saw a significant decline. Furthermore, crude prices surged following reports of new security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.

Domestically, the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística reported that the Índice de Seguimiento a la Economía grew by 1.6% in February. While imports maintained growth during the same month, the urban unemployment rate across the 13 primary metropolitan areas continued a downward trend through March 2026. In the fixed income market, the central government reported debt levels at 64.2% of GDP for the first quarter, with internal debt accounting for 71.2% of that total.

Market movements reflected these broader trends as the US Treasury curve saw valuation increases driven by investor caution. In the region, Colombia, Brazil, and Uruguay emerged as the primary beneficiaries of the J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) GBI index rebalancing in March. Locally, fixed-rate Títulos de Tesorería experienced devaluations across the entire curve last week. According to the April Encuesta de Opinión Financiera, these devaluations are expected to persist in the coming months. In currency markets, the COP appreciated last week against a backdrop of global and local factors, while the Euro lost ground against the USD.

Headline photo: Bogotá headquarters of Banco de la República (Banrepublica). Photo credit Juan Enrique Rodríguez, courtesy Banrepublica

Infrastructure Progress Advances Marmato 2026 Gold Production Goals

Aris Mining (TSX: ARIS; NYSE: ARIS) confirmed the completion of an underground infrastructure connection at its Marmato gold mine in Colombia. The development involved connecting a new surface decline to the existing underground mining workings.

This cross-cut connection serves as a technical step for the ongoing expansion project, which includes the construction of a 5,000 tons-per-day carbon-in-pulp (CIP) plant. The company stated that the infrastructure is currently on schedule to support the initiation of gold production in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Neil Woodyer, Chair and CEO of Aris Mining, stated: “The on-schedule connection of the new surface decline to the existing underground development is a major milestone for Marmato and an important step in delivering our expansion plans.”

The Marmato expansion is part of a broader strategy intended to increase the company’s annual gold production. Aris Mining aims to achieve a combined output of approximately 500,000 ounces per year from its Segovia and Marmato operations. The Segovia mine previously expanded its operational capacity following the installation of a second mill in June 2025.

The company maintains a long-term production objective of approximately 1 million ounces of gold annually. This target incorporates potential production from the Toroparu gold project in Guyana, where a prefeasibility study is currently underway. Aris Mining expects a construction decision regarding the Toroparu project in early 2027.

Regarding its portfolio in Colombia, the company is finalizing environmental studies for the Soto Norte gold project. Aris Mining plans to submit these documents for the licensing process during the second quarter of 2026.

Photo (© Loren Moss) illustrative only (Not marmato mine)

Frances Robles, corresponsal internacional de The New York Times compartió sus experiencias de más de 25 años cubriendo la región.

Frances Robles, an international correspondent for The New York Times, has reported on the region for more than 25 years.

Higher grades at Segovia drive output and revenue gains

Vancouver-based Aris Mining Corporation (TSX: ARIS; NYSE: ARIS) reported preliminary first-quarter 2026 gold production of 74,300 ounces from its two underground mines in Colombia, representing a 6% increase over the fourth quarter of 2025 and a 36% increase compared to the same period a year earlier.

The company said it sold 74,800 ounces of gold during the quarter at an average realized price exceeding $4,860 USD per ounce, generating gold revenue of more than $360 million USD. That figure marks a 20% increase from Q4 2025 revenue of $301 million USD and more than double the $154 million USD reported in Q1 2025. The company reported a cash balance exceeding $470 million USD as of March 31, 2026, an increase of approximately $80 million USD from the end of the previous quarter.

“We expect Q1 2026 gold revenue to exceed $360 million, a significant increase from $154 million in Q1 2025 and $301 million in Q4 2025, driven by higher gold prices and increased ounces sold.” — Neil Woodyer, Chair and CEO, Aris Mining Corporation

The production gains were concentrated at Aris Mining’s Segovia operation in the department of Antioquia, which produced 66,600 ounces during the quarter, up from 63,100 ounces in Q4 2025 and 47,500 ounces in Q1 2025. The year-over-year increase of 40% at Segovia was driven primarily by a notable improvement in ore grade. The average gold grade processed rose to 12.41 grams per ton from 9.37 grams per ton a year earlier, a 32% increase, while the volume of ore processed increased 5% to 175,000 tons. Recovery rates held at 95.3%, compared to 96.1% in both the prior quarter and Q1 2025.

The higher grades offset a decline in throughput compared to Q4 2025, when the mine processed 201,000 tons at an average grade of 10.10 grams per ton. Aris Mining completed installation of a second mill at Segovia in June 2025, increasing processing capacity by 50% to 3,000 tons per day, and the company has indicated that the ramp-up at the operation is continuing.

At the Marmato mine in the department of Caldas, production totaled 7,800 ounces in Q1 2026, an increase from 6,700 ounces in Q4 2025 and 7,200 ounces in Q1 2025. Marmato processed 77,000 tons of ore at an average grade of 3.53 grams per ton during the quarter, compared to 75,000 tons at 3.12 grams per ton in Q4 2025. Recovery rates at Marmato declined slightly to 89.6% from 90.8% in the prior quarter.

Consolidated Production Summary

Gold production and sales	Q1 2026	Q4 2025	Q1 2025
Segovia (koz)	66.6	63.1	47.5
Marmato (koz)	7.8	6.7	7.2
Total production (koz)	74.3	69.9	54.8
Total sales (koz)	74.8	71.7	54.3

Growth Outlook

Neil Woodyer, the company’s chair and CEO, said production growth in 2026 is expected to be weighted toward the second half of the year. The company is building a new bulk mine and carbon-in-pulp (CIP) processing plant at Marmato, with first gold expected in Q4 2026. At steady state, the expanded Marmato operation is expected to produce approximately 200,000 ounces per year.

Together, the Segovia and Marmato expansions are expected to increase Aris Mining’s annual gold production to approximately 500,000 ounces. The two mines produced a combined 257,000 ounces in 2025.

Beyond its operating mines, Aris Mining is advancing the Soto Norte gold project in the department of Santander, Colombia, where environmental studies are being finalized for submission in Q2 2026 to initiate the licensing process. The company also holds the Toroparu gold project in Guyana, where a prefeasibility study is underway and a construction decision is expected in early 2027. These projects form part of Aris Mining’s longer-term objective of reaching approximately 1 million ounces of annual gold production, though that target includes estimates from a preliminary economic assessment for Toroparu that the company has cautioned are based on inferred mineral resources and are speculative in nature.

The company expects to report full Q1 2026 financial and operating results on or about May 6, 2026. The quarterly results contained in the April 7 announcement are preliminary and may differ from final figures.

Aris Mining is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ARIS. Company filings are available through SEDAR+ and the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Activity cools to 2.1% annual expansion.

Economic activity in Colombia expanded at an estimated annual rate of 2.1% during the first quarter of 2026. According to the latest NowCast report issued by the Grupo Cibest, unit of Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB, BVC: BCOLOMBIA), this outcome reflects a loss of momentum compared to the rolling quarter ended in February. That previous period recorded a growth of 2.2%, which was revised downward by 10 basis points from an initial estimate of 2.3%.

The 2.1% growth rate for the quarter indicates a slowdown relative to both the market consensus average of 2.7% and the internal growth forecast of 3.3% held by the bank. On a month-over-month basis, the seasonally adjusted series of the NowCast index posted a 1.3% contraction in March 2026. When compared to March 2025, economic activity grew by 2% year over year, representing a 50-basis-point decline from the 2.5% reading recorded the previous month.

“Overall, these results suggest that the economy is beginning to lose steam, amid multiple sources of uncertainty.” — NowCast Bancolombia Report

Analysis at the sector level reveals a broadly weaker growth profile, with deceleration appearing across most productive areas. Slower momentum was identified in trade, manufacturing, recreation, real estate, and financial services. Manufacturing expansion cooled to 1.0% in March 2026, while financial services recorded marginal growth of 0.6%. The real estate sector maintained a steady growth rate of 1.9%.

Construction and communications were the only sectors to record negative growth during the period. The construction sector saw a significant downturn, contracting by 2.3% in March 2026 after having posted 1.4% growth in February. The information and communications sector contracted by 0.4%, marking its fourth consecutive month in contractionary territory. Conversely, acceleration was noted in public administration, which grew by 5.1%, agriculture at 3.7%, and mining at 0.8%.

The NowCast family of indicators is prepared by Grupo Cibest through the processing and aggregation of transaction data from the bank’s various payment channels. Using advanced quantitative tools, the index provides high-frequency estimates of Colombian productive activity to complement official data from the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística. The report was authored by Arturo Yesid González Peña, Head of Quantitative and Analytics, and Sebastián Ospina Cuartas, Data Controller.

The report also incorporates data from the Bloomberg platform and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts to provide broader economic context. While the national economy remains in expansionary territory, the analysts suggest that the current results indicate the market is losing steam due to various sources of domestic uncertainty.

Credit downgrade is an indictment of the Petro administration’s fiscal management, including suspension of the fiscal rule.

On April 8, 2026, S&P Global Ratings (NYSE: SPGI) lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Colombia to BB- from BB and its long-term local currency rating to BB from BB+. The outlook for both ratings is stable, reflecting expectations that the Government of Colombia will gradually reduce its fiscal deficit while sustaining moderate growth in the national gross domestic product.

The rating action follows persistent fiscal imbalances and a policy environment that has become less predictable since the pandemic-related recession. The government decision to suspend the national fiscal rule in 2025 marked a significant shift in the policy framework. Pro-cyclical fiscal policies have provided marginal support for employment and consumption, but have also contributed to higher inflation expectations and a wider current account deficit. S&P expects the general government fiscal deficit to reach 5.6% of the national gross domestic product in 2026, compared to 5.3% in 2025.

“We expect Colombia to have consistently large fiscal deficits over the next few years.” — S&P Global Ratings

Institutional stability remains a key factor in the rating, though challenges persist. A fragmented legislature followed the March 2026 elections, where Pacto Histórico and Centro Democrático emerged with the largest minorities. The upcoming presidential election, scheduled for May 31, 2026, adds further uncertainty. Candidates such as Iván Cepeda of Pacto Histórico, Paloma Valencia, and Abelardo de la Espriella have proposed varying approaches to fiscal consolidation. The new administration will inherit spending pressures related to domestic security, rising healthcare costs, and pension payments linked to minimum wage increases.

The Banco de la República, the independent central bank of the country, has maintained a tight monetary policy to combat inflationary pressures. Annual inflation reached 5.3% in February 2026, prompting the bank to increase reference rates to 11.25%. S&P anticipates that inflation will not return to the target range of 3% +/- 1% until early 2029. While the independent status of the central bank provides a buffer against external shocks, high interest rates and lower-than-expected revenue collections have contributed to the widening deficit since 2024.

Economic growth is projected at 2.5% for 2026, slightly below the 2.6% recorded in 2025. Per capita growth is estimated at $9,900 USD for 2026, with real growth expected to average just above 2% through 2029. Despite being a net energy exporter, the performance of the US economy and international energy prices continue to influence national outcomes. Hydrocarbon exports declined to 35% of goods exports in 2025, down from 67% in 2013, showing some diversification even as the sector remains a primary source of volatility.

Net general government debt is forecast to approach 66% of the national gross domestic product by 2029, rising from 60.4% in 2025. S&P notes that the government interest burden will average 12.3% of general government revenue over the next three years. The shift toward issuing shorter-term debt instruments has reduced reported interest payments but increased vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations. External indicators remain a concern, with narrow net external debt expected to stabilize at 130% of current account receipts through 2029. Foreign direct investment is expected to be the primary source for funding the current account deficit, which is projected to stabilize around 2.6% of the national gross domestic product.

Vise photo credit © Loren Moss

President Gustavo Petro has triggered a rare institutional confrontation with the Central Bank  after he ordered to “break relations” following an modest interest rate increase, raising concerns over economic policy independence just two months before the May 31 presidential election.

The board of Banco de la República voted on March 31 to raise its benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 11.25 per cent, defying government pressure for looser policy. Finance minister Germán Ávila denounced the move as “disproportionate” and withdrew from the board, accusing policymakers of privileging financial sector interests over economic growth.

The decision marks an unprecedented rupture in Colombia’s macroeconomic governance framework. By stepping away from the board, Ávila has effectively deprived it of the quorum required to meet under existing statutes, raising the prospect of a policy deadlock just as inflation remains above target.

At stake is more than a disagreement over rates. The confrontation exposes deeper tensions between a government focused on growth and redistribution and a technocratic central bank committed to price stability. It also risks undermining one of Colombia’s most respected institutions at a time of heightened global uncertainty.

Governor Leonardo Villar defended the rate hike, insisting the bank’s constitutional mandate to control inflation could not be subordinated to political considerations. He said the board remained focused on steering inflation back to its 3 per cent target, noting that price pressures — currently running at 5.29 per cent annually — remain elevated despite signs of moderation.

“The decisions are based on technical criteria,” Villar said, rejecting accusations of bias towards the financial sector. He also warned that the government’s withdrawal runs counter to institutional norms.

Markets are now watching whether the government intends to sustain its boycott. Under Colombian law, the presence of a Finance Minister is required for board meetings, meaning continued absence could paralyse rate-setting decisions in the coming months. Three key meetings — in April, June and July — are scheduled before the end of Petro’s term, with the latter two falling after a decisive first-round of the presidential elections.

Business leaders have reacted with alarm. Camilo Sánchez, head of utilities association Andesco, described the breakdown in coordination as “dire”, warning that permanent dialogue between fiscal and monetary authorities is essential for economic stability.

Analysts say the government may be using institutional leverage to halt further rate increases, given that a majority of board members had signalled a tightening bias to anchor inflation expectations. A prolonged standoff could, however, carry significant costs.

Colombia has long been viewed by investors as a regional outlier for its strong central bank independence. Any perception that political pressure is eroding that autonomy could weigh on the peso, increase borrowing costs and deter foreign investment.

The dispute comes against a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Inflation has been fuelled in part by a sharp increase in the minimum wage and higher public spending, while external risks — including rising energy prices linked to the war in the Middle East and closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.

For Petro, the rate hike reinforces a long-standing critique that tight monetary policy is stifling growth and employment. Writing on social media, the president accused the central bank of pursuing a “suicidal” policy that harms the wider economy.

Yet economists warn that weakening institutional credibility could ultimately prove more damaging than high interest rates. “The risk is not just policy error,” one Bogotá-based analyst said. “It is the erosion of the rules of the game.”

The coming weeks will test whether the standoff is a negotiating tactic or the start of a more fundamental shift in Colombia’s economic governance. Either way, the episode has already injected a new layer of uncertainty into one of Latin America’s most closely watched economies.

Stronger peso and oil prices shift Colombian investment landscape.

The Colombian peso (COP) experienced a 2.1% appreciation during March 2026, driven by a recovery in global oil prices and key domestic developments. According to the latest analysis from Bancolombia (BVC: BCOLOMBIA / NYSE: CIB), the performance of the currency coincided with the results of national legislative elections and recent monetary policy adjustments by the Banco de la República.

Global energy markets recorded a significant increase in crude prices throughout the month. Brent crude rose 63% to end March at $118 USD per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 51% to close at $101 USD per barrel. These price movements have been largely attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to influence international commodity flows and investor sentiment.

On the domestic front, the Gran Coalición por Colombia primary election recorded a turnout of more than 5 million voters. Market analysts indicated that the high participation rate was viewed as a positive indicator of institutional stability. Simultaneously, the Board of Directors of the Banco de la República increased the national policy interest rate by 100 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 11.25%. This decision aligns with regional efforts to manage inflationary pressures through tighter monetary control.

International market conditions also reflect a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East and persistent economic indicators, markets currently anticipate that the US central bank will maintain existing interest rates without cuts for the remainder of the year.

Looking forward to April, the research team at Bancolombia—led by Chief Economist Laura Clavijo, Macroeconomic Manager Jose Luis Mojica, and International and FX Analyst Maria Paula Gonzalez—projects that the exchange rate will trade within a range of $3,625 COP to $3,725 COP. This forecast accounts for continued volatility and heightened uncertainty in both global and domestic financial markets.

Bancolombia (photo © Loren Moss)

Ecopetrol S.A. (BVC: ECOPETROL; NYSE: EC) has entered into a formal payment agreement with the Government of Colombia to settle outstanding balances from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, known in Spanish as the Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles (FEPC). The agreement, reached through the Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público and the Ministerio de Minas y Energía, addresses $1.6 trillion COP owed for the first quarter of 2025.

Under the terms of Resolutions 00368 and 00369 issued by the Dirección de Hidrocarburos, the total amount is divided between Ecopetrol S.A., which is owed $1.2 trillion COP, and Refinería de Cartagena S.A.S. (Reficar), which is owed $0.4 trillion COP. The repayment schedule began with a cash transfer of $2.89 billion COP on April 1, 2026. The remaining balance of approximately $1.55 trillion COP is scheduled to be paid on December 15, 2026, through the issuance of Treasury Securities, or Títulos de Tesorería (TES). The Colombian state has acknowledged the financial costs associated with the time elapsed until the final December payment.

“The Ecopetrol Group continues to work in close coordination with the Ministries of Finance and Public Credit and of Mines and Energy — the authorities responsible for fuel pricing policy — in the implementation of payment mechanisms and the reduction of FEPC balances.” — Ecopetrol S.A.

Concurrent with the subsidy settlement, Ecopetrol received authorization from the Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público via Resolution 0666 to execute an external public debt management transaction totaling $1.25 billion USD. The five-year loan was secured through a consortium of international lenders including BBVA (BME: BBVA; NYSE: BBVA), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and Bank of China (HKG: 3988). The credit facility carries a floating interest rate indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and will be repaid in four equal installments.

The proceeds from the $1.25 billion USD loan are designated for the repayment of existing obligations. Specifically, $1.2 billion USD will be used to settle a 2024 loan previously authorized for the acquisition of the state’s interest in Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. E.S.P. (ISA), while the remaining $50 million USD will be applied to an outstanding balance from a 2025 credit agreement. The loan agreement is governed by the laws of the State of New York and includes standard covenants regarding the borrower’s payment capacity and financial integrity.

These financial maneuvers are intended to optimize the maturity profile of the Ecopetrol Group, which remains responsible for over 60% of hydrocarbon production in Colombia. The company continues to operate integrated systems in transportation, refining, and petrochemicals, with additional international operations in the US Permian basin, the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Mexico.

Since the start of President Gustavo Petro’s administration, the intelligence agency has had four directors, highlighting instability within one of the institutions responsible for state security.

The resignation of Wilmar Mejía as chief of Colombia’s National Intelligence Agency has highlighted instability within the country’s main intelligence agency under the government of President Gustavo Petro, which has seen four leadership changes over the past three years.

Mejía confirmed his departure on April 1 in an interview with Canal 1. “When the Inspector General’s Office lifted my suspension, I went to sign my reinstatement document and within 15 minutes I submitted my resignation. I am no longer the director of intelligence,” he said.

The official had been suspended since December 23, 2025, by the Inspector General’s Office as part of a disciplinary investigation “for alleged links to and the provision of information to members of dissident factions of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).” The Inspector Office said at the time that the measure aimed to prevent possible interference with the process.

Investigation into alleged links to guerrilla dissidents

The case is related to the seizure of digital files belonging to Alexander Díaz Mendoza, known as “Calarcá Córdoba,” a leader of one of the dissident structures grouped under the Estado Mayor de Bloques y Frente (EMBF). Authorities say the documents point to possible contacts with the former intelligence chief.

Mejía has denied any involvement and has argued that the accusations are part of alleged “setups aimed at silencing reports of internal corruption.”

According to the Inspector Office, the investigation “includes possible acts such as the disclosure of military force communication frequency codes and support in the creation of security companies that could facilitate the legalization of weapons in the event of a breakdown in peace talks with the government.”

So far, neither the Inspector General’s Office nor the Attorney General’s Office has concluded its investigations, and no determination of responsibility has been made.

The case has raised concerns about state security and the institutional stability of the agency, considered a key body for the country’s strategic intelligence.

Local media outlets such as El Colombiano have reported that the situation has affected trust among international intelligence partners, suggesting that agencies such as the CIA (United States), MI6 (United Kingdom), and Mossad (Israel) have restricted the sharing of strategic information with Colombia.

Four directors in just over three years

Since Petro took office, the agency has had four directors, all of them close to the president through their past involvement in the M-19 guerrilla group, which signed a peace agreement in 1990.

The instability dates back to the beginning of Petro’s administration. Since August 2022, when Manuel Alberto Casanova Guzmán was appointed, the agency has undergone repeated leadership changes.

Casanova, who faced criticism over his lack of intelligence experience and background as a philosopher, was removed following allegations of involvement in a false extortion case linked to then-Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva, as reported by Infobae.

He was succeeded by Carlos Ramón González, who later left the post amid investigations into his alleged role in the corruption scandal involving Unidad Nacional de Gestión de Riesgo y Desastres (UNGRD). He is currently in Nicaragua under political asylum, while Colombia has requested his extradition and Interpol has issued a red notice.

Finally, just before Mejía, the agency was led by Jorge Lemus, who served for nearly a year before resigning. He was subsequently appointed by Petro as director of the Unidad de Información y Análisis Financiero (UIAF), amid growing allegations of possible infiltration within the country’s security institutions.

Monetary tightening impacts investment outlook in Colombia.

Colombia’s Banco de la República is preparing for a significant shift in monetary policy as inflationary risks deteriorate. According to the latest report from the Dirección de Investigaciones Económicas, Sectoriales y de Mercados at Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB), persistent internal pressures and a less favorable external environment are driving the need for a more restrictive stance.

Bancolombia’s analysts expect the Junta Directiva of the Banco de la República to increase its policy interest rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 11.25 percent. This forecast suggests that the first half of 2026 will be characterized by a more aggressive tightening cycle than previously anticipated, with the rate potentially reaching 12.75 percent.

The international landscape is playing an increasingly decisive role in these local policy configurations. A recent week of central bank decisions globally revealed a shift in tone among major financial institutions, primarily due to rising uncertainty stemming from the conflict in Iran. This geopolitical tension has directly impacted costs for energy, transportation, and agricultural inputs.

“The increase responds to the need to send a clear signal of commitment to price stability.” — Dirección de Investigaciones Económicas, Sectoriales y de Mercados at Bancolombia.

In the US, economic activity shows signs of moderation, yet producer price inflation in February exceeded expectations. The yield curve for US Treasuries, managed by the US Department of the Treasury, has shown mixed behavior as the conflict escalates, with the spread between 10-year and 3-month bonds reaching levels not seen since 2023. Inflation expectations in the US have rebounded in the short term, though they remain anchored over longer horizons.

Forecast Category	Mar-25	Sep-25	Dec-25	Feb-26	Mar-26
Year-end 2026 Inflation	3.7%	4.0%	4.5%	6.2%	6.2%
Year-end 2027 Inflation	—	—	—	4.8%	4.8%
Year-end 2026 Policy Rate	6.50%	8.00%	9.25%	11.75%	11.75%
Year-end 2027 Policy Rate	—	—	8.00%	9.75%	10.00%

Domestically, the business indices from think-tank Fedesarrollo showed mixed results for February. However, there are positive indicators in the labor market, as the urban unemployment rate across the 13 primary metropolitan areas continued its downward trend. Additionally, goods exports recorded an advance during the same period.

In the local fixed-income market, the TES fixed-rate curve saw a recovery last week. However, the March Financial Institutions Survey suggests that devaluations of TES may persist in the short term. Long-term TES Class B placements in the first quarter reached 1.0 percent of the GDP.

Energy markets remain volatile as crude oil inventories in the US increased beyond expectations in the third week of March. Despite this, the price of Brent crude rose toward the end of the week, driven by skepticism regarding a potential ceasefire in the Middle East. The Colombian peso appreciated over the past week, tracking the intensity of the regional conflict.

The equity market results for the fourth quarter of 2025 remained neutral and aligned with market expectations. Global volatility continues to be shaped by energy shocks, geopolitical strife, and a cautious approach toward investments in artificial intelligence.

The projected rate hike by the Banco de la República is intended to send a definitive signal of commitment to price stability. This adjustment reflects not only recent inflation trends but also a strategic effort to prevent the further deterioration of expectations in a high-risk environment.

Headline image: Bogotá headquarters of Banco de la República (Banrepublica). Photo credit Juan Enrique Rodríguez, courtesy Banrepublica

Wingo expansion strengthens Medellín as a regional aviation hub

Wingo, a subsidiary of Copa Holdings (NYSE: CPA), has announced the launch of two new direct international routes from Medellín to Guatemala City, Guatemala, and Montego Bay, Jamaica. With this expansion, the carrier becomes the only airline to operate these specific nonstop segments from José María Córdova International Airport in Rionegro, which serves the Antioquia region.

The new service increases Wingo’s international portfolio to 10 destinations from the city, complementing its existing network of five domestic routes. According to data provided by the airline, Medellín has become a primary operational base in Colombia. In 2025, approximately 35% of the carrier’s total passenger traffic, representing 1.2 million travelers, originated from or arrived in the city.

“Medellín is a strategic city for Wingo, and these two new routes reflect our confidence in the potential of the city and the response of travelers.” — Jorge Jiménez, Commercial and Planning Vice President of Wingo.

The Alcaldía de Medellín, through the Secretaría de Turismo y Entretenimiento and the Bureau de Medellín y Antioquia, coordinated with airport concessionaire Airplan to facilitate the new frequencies. The Medellín to Guatemala City route is scheduled to begin operations on June 25, 2026, with three weekly frequencies on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. The airline expects to offer 30,000 seats annually on this route, with one-way fares starting at $108 USD, including taxes and fees.

The connection to Montego Bay is slated for a June 23, 2026, start date, also operating three times per week on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. Introductory fares for the Jamaican destination are positioned at $159 USD per trayect. This move follows a 2025 pilot program where Jamaica was marketed as a high-interest destination for Colombian travelers.

Jorge Jiménez, Commercial and Planning Vice President at Wingo, stated that these routes reflect confidence in the potential of the city and the response of travelers to direct, low-cost international options. Ana María López Acosta, Secretary of Tourism and Entertainment, noted that the collaboration between the public and private sectors continues to project the city as an attractive destination for tourism and investment.

The expansion comes as the Aeropuerto Internacional José María Córdova continues to increase its capacity as a logistical platform for the country. Javier Benítez, Manager of the airport, indicated that the arrival of these routes reaffirms the facility’s potential to facilitate international business and connection for the region.

New Africa initiative drives 112% growth in non-mining exports.

The Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo (Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Tourism) hosted the first Foro de Reencuentro Económico CELAC–África at the Ágora Convention Center in Bogotá on March 20, 2026. The event, held as part of a broader high-level forum, aimed to strengthen commercial and investment ties between Colombia and the African continent. During the proceedings, officials identified various sectors for potential growth, including jewelry, agricultural machinery, construction materials, software, digital marketing, and food and beverages.

Minister of Trade Diana Marcela Morales Rojas stated that the forum represents a strategic shift toward trade equity and shared economic opportunities. Over the past four years, the Colombian government has sought to diversify its market reach through economic diplomacy, trade missions, and the establishment of new logistical routes to Africa. Data from 2025 indicates that these efforts have resulted in a significant increase in non-mining and non-energy exports to the continent.

“We aim for this forum to mark the beginning of a new stage: one of strategic cooperation, trade with equity, and the construction of shared opportunities.” — Diana Marcela Morales Rojas, Minister of Trade, Industry, and Tourism.

According to ministry figures, non-mining exports to Africa reached $296.5 million USD in 2025, representing a 112% increase compared to 2024. In terms of volume, these shipments totaled 209,273 tons, a 226.8% rise over the previous year. These goods accounted for 46.6% of Colombia’s total exports to the continent, signaling a shift toward a more diversified export basket. Key products driving this growth include coffee, bananas, machinery, paper, and apparel.

The number of Colombian firms participating in this trade has also expanded. In 2025, 165 companies exported non-mining goods to Africa with values exceeding $10,000 USD, up from 145 companies in 2024. This 15.2% growth in participating firms underscores a transition toward higher value-added exports. Vice President Francia Márquez Mina noted that the economies of Latin America and Africa are complementary, offering potential for the development of new value chains and the utilization of strategic mineral reserves necessary for the global energy transition.

A central component of the forum was a business matchmaking event held on March 17 and 18. Preliminary results from the session show expected trade operations totaling $16 million USD. Nicolás Mejía, Vice President of Exports at ProColombia, characterized the results as a validation of the current market diversification plan. Since the beginning of the current administration, the government has implemented the Estrategia África 2022–2026 to strengthen socioeconomic relations with the region.

Through commercial intelligence analysis, the Colombian government has prioritized nine specific markets for its diplomatic and economic deployment: South Africa, Angola, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria. These nations serve as the primary focus for the continued implementation of the 2022–2026 strategy.

Above photo: MinCIT/Ricardo Báez.